Wednesday, September 27, 2006

 

Closing Comments

Is it just me, or did you get the strange feeling that Bob Pisani will be masturbating to his Wall Street Journal when the DOW hits an all-time high?

Today was a gee-golly great day for the market, as it marches towards brand new highs!

Additionally, the market is ignoring bad economic data and will likely go straight up, forever, like MNCS.

Oh, by the way, the spike in oil today was not real. As we all know, oil is heading down to $50 by Halloween and MRVL is going to blow-the-fucking-doors off Wall Street's consensus.

Seriously, I believe the market is in the process of topping. Despite what the shit-shovelers say, stocks are richly valued and are going into the 3rd quarter earnings season- priced for perfection.

What happens when a stock is priced for perfection and disappoints?

Answer: RHAT -23%.

As for me: I am holding my RACK short and believe, despite what HQ believes, they are going to have margin issues-- within 6 months. Also, I bought more VLO and feel the stock has 10 points of upside and 4 down. Keep in mind, net-net, I am still long the market. These are some of my positions.

Today's gains were led by Oil, Gold and Biotech stocks.

Losses were found in Tech, Brokers and Homebuilders.

The following stocks had notable upside moves:

NKZ-WT, FMD, CORS, JAVO, THI, JSDA, NAFC, MRFD, DCBI, HOOK, MECA, PHHM, GVA, CLB, EAGL, RAMS, EXM, DRYS, GGR, URRE, ABLE, USEG, XNL, CFK, PLLL, HOC, VLO, DWSN, TSO, STO, NFX, SU, GEOI, NXY, MRO, ARTW, PEIX, AVR, VSE, BEXP, CPE, GDP, OMNI, MWP, GLBL, GMXR, DVSA, DNE, BDCO, KFX, BTJ, BRNC, BHI, NEU, TEC, EGY, FXEN, NGS, MILL, ALJ, WNR, BLDP, DK, FTO, GGY, RRC, ZEUS, AAUK, RTP, DNA, AOB, NKTR, CELG, AVNR, STGN, BDSI, SEPR, ISIS, NTMD, ONXX, ALKS, VRTX, FOXH, NMTI, ABBI, ISRG, ARNA, THLD, SVA, GNBT, NVAX, BCRX, GOAM, LONG, HSTM, MIVA, NTES, VGZ, HL, AUY, GG, KGC, PAAS, SA, EZM, GM, ANSW, ITRA, HAUP, GLBC, AMCC, ADCT, DPW, MRVC, TIII, TKO, DIVX, GNET, FDRY, LTRX, NETL, RVBD, MRVL, WJCI, TRBM, OPTC, INPH, VTEK, BNG, BAMM, GPS, SRR, JCG, SANYY, MTU, OLED, OPSW, THQI, DGIN, BOBJ, CRYP, VIGN, RMTR, EMKR, ATHR, AEHR, ACTG, CNXT, LSCC, BITS, COGO, IVAC, GRMN, MTSN, VSEA, QSND, CHRT, OVRL, WDC, CLEC, ECIL, CCOI, CALL, GRRF, KONG, IIT, NOIZ, IDCC, SWWC, EDP, CWCO, WCRX, CLAY, ATEC, VNDA, PRLS, NCST, SUMT, HEPH, ARWR, MECA, MDTL, OZN, RWC, NXG, TRT, FUL, FBP, ATU, SLW, HL and EYE.

The following stocks had notable downside moves:

ITG, LAB, CFC, FIZ, CMG, FZN, TOA, BHS, WCI, SPF, DEVC, CHB, TARR, HOV, TIN, CRDN, STST, ESLR, ERS, HSR, ELOS, YMI, BBC, VSTA, CAMH, CNU, VZ, WGAT, OSTK, EDGR, BCSI, AQNT, MNST, WBSN, LQDT, JADE, PCTI, LVLT, ORCT, EQIX, RACK, AVCI, EGHT, TWTR, CACH, ZUMZ, RHAT, ATAR, AMKR, DSTI, NVEC, SWKS, IRSN, MVIS, HIMX, AATI, FALC, DTLK, INPC, LTBG, PGWC, TPC, MR, TWLL, ACOR, MDCC, WOR, CECO, UQM, MII, BE, LCC, F, and HGR.

Comments:
Broker a,

You've been calling a market top for the last 3 weeks. What up with that? I guess at some point you will be right.
 
Like a broken clock.

I have been wrong. Padon my stubborness. Sometimes it makes me $$$.
 
You go Broker I told ya earlier I like how you say what U say , because it makes the point very clear and easy to understand...I gonna call myself Brokerfan( so U know who I am)
 
Broker A -- Can you please give your advice on shorting the DOW? What would you short, DIA? What about the dividend? Do you think shorting the DOW at the all time high (if we hit it) would pay off between that day and the next dividend? Not looking for a gigantic return just looking for a small quick percentage on the short. I understand you are shorting RACK and others but just for shits if you were wanting to short the DOW how would you play it? Thanks for everything!
 
The best ways to play the DOW:

To bet against: buy DXD (200% INVERSE) or DOG.

To invest: buy DDM (200% levered)
 
I agree with your recommendation relative to DXD and DOG - these are good places to be if you believe the market is going down. The only problem is the market goes up, it always has and it always will. Crashes are always one or two day events and after the crash the market goes up. Always has always will.

So anyone who buys DOG or DXD be ready to dump them immediately if you think the market has bottomed. Because they go down a lot faster than the market goes up. Also if the Dow goes down the SPX and NAZ will also go down and you can buy some SH/SDS PSQ/QID and if you want to short the mid caps - MZZ.

Also Proshares has a similar set of funds. The SH and PSQ are 1 for 1 as is the DOG the others are 2 for 1.

Going on vacation - have a great rest of the week.
 
The market always goes up?

Come on John.

The market is flat over the last 6 years. There has been times where the market has slumped for extended periods of time.
 
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