Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Late Day Thought
Sing it Barbara.
I am just some guy, who professionally manages money and tells it how I see it.
As for the shorts:
As I said earlier, they are pussies. They are waiting for the bulls to exhaust themselves.
The level of anxiety is intense as their equity drops, due to insane moves in high multiple tech.
The market is behaving as if the semiconductor was just invented and the economy was ripping at a 6% clip.
Frankly, going into earnings with these rich valuations, the advantage is clearly in the bears corner. As equities are priced for perfection.
Oil goes back to $70, then what?
Then all of a sudden the tax is back on the consumer.
Also, lets acknowledge how far stocks have come up from the bottom and agree if their EPS doesn't impress, all hell will break loose.
I feel people have priced in good earnings. Therefore, anything less will be cause for very loud alarms.
this takes a little while to play out but when it does, look out.
Also, Semico is predicting a 13% decline in semi cap ex spending in '07-- the biggest decline since 2004.
We all remember how fun 2004 was, right?
A dramatically slower economy via 17 rate hikes will slow growth.
Regarding my oil longs, I do not need luck. The stock God's love me.
It's called demand, and when demand drops as shown from a lower GDP so does everything including oil.
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