Wednesday, September 27, 2006

 

Late Day Thought

This one goes out to all the happy folks at CNBC.

Sing it Barbara.

Comments:
Your commentry on the markets is always soo right on, its very clear and easy to see your ideas and points your making, I love it , you would make a very good teacher of all things wall st, I would like to hear what you would be saying about how the shorts must be feeling, these past few days, waiting and waiting and waiting for any reason to feel good, and what do you think their doing right now? thank you for all the good commertry~
 
I'm posting "Wake Me Up When September Ends" on my blog. Tough shorting a market that everyone feels good about this month.
 
Thanks for the kind words.

I am just some guy, who professionally manages money and tells it how I see it.

As for the shorts:

As I said earlier, they are pussies. They are waiting for the bulls to exhaust themselves.

The level of anxiety is intense as their equity drops, due to insane moves in high multiple tech.

The market is behaving as if the semiconductor was just invented and the economy was ripping at a 6% clip.

Frankly, going into earnings with these rich valuations, the advantage is clearly in the bears corner. As equities are priced for perfection.
 
maria seemed orgasmic at the close :-)
 
Broker...I kindly disagree with your last too lines uo their. Things are going higher into earnings because of potential fundies, you are looking at an end to rate hikes, and a possiable cut, lower oil and a better consumer who has not spent, then you have things like xmas, vista, and a better q1 07 and q2 o7 so now after dissmal quarters from intc and the semis, biz may be turning.
 
Ok,

Consider this:

Oil goes back to $70, then what?

Then all of a sudden the tax is back on the consumer.

Also, lets acknowledge how far stocks have come up from the bottom and agree if their EPS doesn't impress, all hell will break loose.

I feel people have priced in good earnings. Therefore, anything less will be cause for very loud alarms.
 
Please let me remind ya, that at 70 oil it was not a blow to the economy,and everyonr figured the consumer was dead, only to learn their still OK, just not intrested, but will be, they brought gas like the should while shopping for their kids BTS stuff, 70 oil will not break the semies, not if 07 is gonna look better then 06-
 
yep, look what happend to RHAT today.
 
anonymous....consumers still have money from their home equity or their credit cards still have room on them....now, with no home equity to pull from, and higher interest rates on their homes, their credit cards will eventually become maxed out....if they continue spending at a high pace.

this takes a little while to play out but when it does, look out.
 
YOUR NOT GONNA CALL RHAT A COMPANY ARE YOU ! THATS NOT MR SOFTIE, ORCAL OR ADBE! THEY DID A REVERSE SPLIT TO SAVE THE LISTING!
 
Anonymous....RHAT is an example of what happens when the earnings report isn't PERFECT...the market is priced for perfection at these levels......
 
tHEY HAVE EQUITY TO PULL FROM,COF WILL BE A 100 STOCK SOON,THE INTREST ON THEIR LOANS MAY HAVE GONE UP, BUT THEY BROUGHT THOSE HOMES AT LOWER RATES AND THEIR HOMES HAVE APPRICATED!P/E'S ON NOT PRICED TO PREFECTION, INTC IS TURNING, MSFT WILL HAVE VISTA OUT, ONLINE SHOPPING,THE WEB, INFOMATION STORAGE, CABLE DSL...EVERYONE HAS A CELL, WE NEED MORE NOT LESS CRAP, THAT WILL TAKE TECH, 06 WAS A BLIP!PLEASE CALL ME CRAMER.
 
Where was the market when oil was $70?

Also, Semico is predicting a 13% decline in semi cap ex spending in '07-- the biggest decline since 2004.

We all remember how fun 2004 was, right?
 
What was the GDP with oil at 70$. 4 dollar gas doesn't do SH=T to the consumer. 5-10 extra bucks a week doesn't effect MSFT or CSCO botttom line. Sorry, good luck with your oil longs, they are going down. Under 60$ by next week Fri.
 
Oil is not the story.

A dramatically slower economy via 17 rate hikes will slow growth.

Regarding my oil longs, I do not need luck. The stock God's love me.
 
Guess what a slower economy will do to your oil longs?
It's called demand, and when demand drops as shown from a lower GDP so does everything including oil.
 
Thats why I am short tech.
 
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