Friday, September 29, 2006

 

October Seasonality

As some of you know, I have seasonality reports prepared, every month, to help identify sector or specific stock trends. Here is what I highlighted for September. For the most part, with the exception of YHOO, the list was pretty good.

Here is a short list of potential winners for October:
(years up/years down) (Average % gain)

STU: 11-2: 4.6%
GS: 6-1: 6.2%
JEF: 6-1: 5%
SYNA: 4-0: 27.2%
CTSH: 7-1: 20.7%
ULCM: 5-1: 5.9%
AMKR: 6-2: 21%
DRIV: 7-1: 17.2%
MTSN: 9-3: 11.8%
POWI: 6-2: 17.4%
NTAP: 8-2: 17.4%
CTXS: 9-1: 17.1%
INFY: 6-1: 16.4%
CELL: 7-2: 15.9%
STMP: 6-0: 18.8%
RIMM: 5-2: 8%
MSFT: 13.7: 5.4%
CNXT: 6-1: 6.3%
ISIL: 5-1: 9.9%
RMBS: 7-2: 5.7%
CORI: 5-1: 24.9%
JNPR: 5-2: 31.6%
TWX: 11-5: 5.7%
SMMX: 5-1: 4.9%
FFIV: 6-1: 37.6%
QLGC: 9-3: 23.3%
AMCC: 6-2: 22.9%
FDRY: 5-2: 24.2%
INTC:14-6: 2.9%
DISK: 12-3: 16.7%
NT: 14-6: 11.6%
CSCO: 13-3: 10.2%
TLAB: 14-6: 11.4%
MRX: 12-2: 10.8%
PGNX: 6-2: 10.6%
JNJ: 15-5: 3.1%
SGP: 16-4: 3.2%
PFE: 15-5: 2.3%
MW: 11-3: 7.7%
COH: 5-0: 12.8%
WAG: 15-5: 3.9%
DIS: 17-3: 3%
GPS: 17-3: 6.7%
BEBE: 6-2: 7.7%
SBUX: 10-4: 7.4% (Best Month)
HOTT: 8-2: 12.1%
GMCR: 7-2: 12.3%
HNZ: 16-4: 2.9%
CL: 14-6: 5.2% (Best Month)
SYY: 17-3: 3.9%
PBG: 6-1: 7% (Best Month)
CPB: 15-5: 3.2%
PEP: 17-3: 3.9% (Best Month)
CPO: 8-0: 8.6%
MTRX: 13-3: 6.2%
GMXR: 4-1: 10%
Q: 8-1: 13.4%
RG: 9-2: 12.3%
TEF: 4-0: 13%
EIX: 16-4: 4.8%

Comments:
Thanks - What do you think of AMKR on your list? It's an interesting combination of showing good track record and being presently a complete disaster, with an options/filing/debt-default situation cooking that could result in anything from bankruptcy to a stockprice doubling in the next month. Avoid the crapshoot? Or bet on sanity prevailing?
 
Although I like AMKR and have traded it many times, I don't think they will do very well.

I believe the semi cycle is mature and companies like AMKR, SPIL, ASTSF and KLIC are very vulnerable to slowdowns at the foundries: TSM, UMC, SMI etc.

I'd stay away.
 
What's the new tech name Cram is recommending today?
 
HPQ
 
Congrats on RIMM. Good call. What are you recommending in the near-term. Thank you.
 
Read past articles. Lots of stuff.
 
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