Thursday, September 14, 2006
Position Updates: VLO
I bought VLO too soon. The fuckers over at the natty pits are drilling the price to new lows, now under $5. As a result, everything energy related is getting the old battleaxe to the head.
I will likely buy more VLO under $50.
Fuckers.
I will likely buy more VLO under $50.
Fuckers.
Comments:
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VLO and the rest of the refiners do not make a good bet here because crack spread are cratering. the fundamentals for these refiners can go from uber bullish to very bearish in a matter of weeks, something echoed by bernstein in their sell note yesterday.
if you absolutely have to play oil the safest way is via the diversified xle.
if you absolutely have to play oil the safest way is via the diversified xle.
# posted by 
: 12:18 PM
: 12:18 PM
I am aware of the crack spread. But, I disagree.
Whenever the price of oil drops, everyone gets uber bearish on the refiners.
When the price of crude rallies back, the refiners will net me quick and easy profits.
Naturally, the XLE is a more diversified and safer way to play oil.
However, I am not an ETF guy and would rather cherry pick good stocks, opposed to buying the packaged product.
Whenever the price of oil drops, everyone gets uber bearish on the refiners.
When the price of crude rallies back, the refiners will net me quick and easy profits.
Naturally, the XLE is a more diversified and safer way to play oil.
However, I am not an ETF guy and would rather cherry pick good stocks, opposed to buying the packaged product.
What do you think about this 4 handle on Natty? Weird to say or see that but what would you be playing here and do you think it is possible to stay in the 4.xx range? I know you like NGAS but has it really suffered the shock of 4.xx natgas?
# posted by : 1:49 PM
: 1:49 PM
What about VLO what makes you think gas will go up? What makes you think you even see 55 let alone 60?
# posted by : 2:16 PM
: 2:16 PM
Because everyone is bearish.
In the big scheme of things, $63 dollar oil is not bad.
As a matter of fact, it is damn good.
My sense: oil will be rangebound, then drift up the closer we get to winter.
Going with the pack usually is the wrong move. Right now, EVERYONE is an energy bear.
In the big scheme of things, $63 dollar oil is not bad.
As a matter of fact, it is damn good.
My sense: oil will be rangebound, then drift up the closer we get to winter.
Going with the pack usually is the wrong move. Right now, EVERYONE is an energy bear.
I'm still counting on nat gas going higher as the cold weather starts to hit. We may not see the prices we did last year, but I think it goes up enough to bring up ngas to over 9. I bought some more today at 7.52..I'll hold unless it gets under 7.
# posted by : 3:19 PM
: 3:19 PM
Broker dear friend,i could understand your palm in fact i think if you held longer you could have profited,and your entry was right on,as seen by the recent price..but on the oil and vlo,your fighting a very tough tape,still a lot of profit to be taken and all the fundies are going down the tube...why?
# posted by : 3:25 PM
: 3:25 PM
Why?
I guess because I am a risk taker-- sometimes to my own detriment.
Don't worry, I have ample cash to buy at lower prices and several shorts that are offsetting the lashing I have received on VLO today.
In short: if oil is going to crater, it will because the economy craters.
If so, my shorts will balance my losses to flat.
However, if VLO annoys me enough, I may just sell it.
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I guess because I am a risk taker-- sometimes to my own detriment.
Don't worry, I have ample cash to buy at lower prices and several shorts that are offsetting the lashing I have received on VLO today.
In short: if oil is going to crater, it will because the economy craters.
If so, my shorts will balance my losses to flat.
However, if VLO annoys me enough, I may just sell it.
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