Thursday, September 28, 2006


Sector Spotlight: Energy

Now that the asshats on CNBC got their new high, shockingly the market is selling off. It's almost as if the traders pushed the DOW up just to shut those fuckers up.

Today we have a mixed picture, so far. However, I do believe the intra-day bias is to the downside. Plus, I have started to notice the analyst downgrades coming down the pipe on key tech names, such as: AMD, SNDK, NTES and JBL.

On top of that, we received poor economic data today, with the 2nd qt. GDP numbers coming in at 2.6%-- 0.3% less than expected. However, its worth noting, 2.6% kicks Europes ass and is still pretty good.

Finally, we are seeing most of today's early gains in the SOX, up 1%. There are no big standouts in the semi's, just across the board green.

As for oil:

I suspect the market bulls/oil bears will attempt to drive oil stocks lower today. Already, we are seeing weakness in TSO, VLO, HOC and SUN. However, overall the sector is showing strength and I suspect the oil patch dip buyers might try to press the sellers to fuck off.

The following Energy stocks have mojo:

ENER +8.4%
IOC +5.3%
PGS +3.5%
SII +2.8%
SPWR +2.3%
JOYG +2.1%

Wait until the Natty numbers come in at 10:30. Energy is going down...down...down...
AMD was upgraded today along with INTC. Your full of it.
ThinkEquity downgrades Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 25.32) to Sell from Buy and lowers tgt to $20 from $30, as they believe the supply chain at Dell is incorporating AMD parts slower than expected.

"Wait until the Natty numbers come in at 10:30. Energy is going down...down...down..."

Be careful shorting oil here. We are due for an oversold bounce.
semi bullish NG number, certain better than that of the past 3 weeks. New TS forming in the Atlantic, not much to see yet. But you never know...
What goes up, must come down.
Your notion of long energy / short tech is looking pretty good here. If the broader market starts getting more nervous, I might start getting less...;)

Frankly, I am making a killing. Yesterday, I was nearly 5% and today, last time I checked, I was nearing 2%.

So, even though I missed out on much of the 3rd qt. run, I am making it up in the last three days.

Lets see if this can last.
I want to send a shout out to all the dip buyers out there.
Oneday you dip buyers will dip into boiling "hot magma."
Oil longs got the rug pulled out from under them today.
Not really.
The major media outlets haven't started talking about the IKE strike group shceduled to arrive off the coast of Iran by Oct 21.

I would think that would make the markets nervous about supply.
-(Dow Jones)- U.S. oil demand in July was down a sharp 1.3% from a year earlier, at 20.582 million barrels a day, revised figures issued Thursday by the Energy Information Administration show.
A global surplus of supply of 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2005 has risen to about one million bpd in the first half of this year, dispelling the “fear premium” that accounted for as much as 20 per cent of the recent spike in the price. Inventories are rising — “stockdays” of crude have risen from 70 to 74 days cover. Oil refineries have been running flat out to satisfy summer petrol demand and have built up huge stocks. There is now a glut of heavier oil products, middle distillates and heating oil, which will depress the market this winter. At the same time, there are signs of a slight weakening of demand, particularly as growth falters in the United States.
Now its OPEC slowing production or some dream that we are about to go to war with Iran. Nothing near term down down down..
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