Friday, September 15, 2006
Sector Spotlight: Financials
Fucking Homebuilders up another 3.5%.
Did anyone see this coming?
It goes to show, following the herd would have kept you out of the sector or worse; you could have been short. Instead, if you took down some big positions in Wall Street's most hated sector-- you could have made a cool 25%-- inside a month.
Today, we received good CPI data-- and the markets have responded by sending the Financials, Homebuilders and Tech stocks higher.
Even though the markets have run without me, I am still up on my short positions. Go figure.
I'll say it again, the bull rally is exhausted. Be careful of a blow off top, followed by a classic Sept-Oct correction (500-600 Dow points).
As far as the financials are concered: Many of them look extended. However, I will continue to buy CORS-- it is ridiculously cheap.
Financials represent 20% of my model portfolio.
NOTE: SIRF is getting eaten alive by the sharks today:)
The following financial stocks are showing some mojo:
FMD +12%
ICE +8.4%
TWPG +4.8%
CBH +4.3%
LEND +3.6%
CME +3%
BOT +2.8%
ISE +2.6%
SDA +2.4%
Did anyone see this coming?
It goes to show, following the herd would have kept you out of the sector or worse; you could have been short. Instead, if you took down some big positions in Wall Street's most hated sector-- you could have made a cool 25%-- inside a month.
Today, we received good CPI data-- and the markets have responded by sending the Financials, Homebuilders and Tech stocks higher.
Even though the markets have run without me, I am still up on my short positions. Go figure.
I'll say it again, the bull rally is exhausted. Be careful of a blow off top, followed by a classic Sept-Oct correction (500-600 Dow points).
As far as the financials are concered: Many of them look extended. However, I will continue to buy CORS-- it is ridiculously cheap.
Financials represent 20% of my model portfolio.
NOTE: SIRF is getting eaten alive by the sharks today:)
The following financial stocks are showing some mojo:
FMD +12%
ICE +8.4%
TWPG +4.8%
CBH +4.3%
LEND +3.6%
CME +3%
BOT +2.8%
ISE +2.6%
SDA +2.4%
Comments:
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I know this is a little out there but any thoughts on making some quick cash on the rebalance today? Possibly playing both sides of the LLY trade? Such as buying LLY puts before the rebalance and then calls when it happens? Just a random thought since I too am a little worn out with this non-stop bull market and trapped on a few short hedges.
# posted by 
: 11:49 AM
: 11:49 AM
Good Morning broker,good to see you Today!
The homies,always win in a fist fight,i know i am a humble homie-
Look with the unloving they have gotten,and with commidites sinking pointing to lower rates and maybe a cuts next year,you have shorts covering and buyers...I'll say it again it was a gamble today who knows what todays numbers could have been,but they were bullish for the homies..
Broker,I would like to but some option puts,on the dow,s$p or the q's, or any puts but not sure how,can you suggest what you might do,my rational is that the rally will end soon..and i can buy the puts and then dump as the markets tank? Thanks for your time and advice!
The homies,always win in a fist fight,i know i am a humble homie-
Look with the unloving they have gotten,and with commidites sinking pointing to lower rates and maybe a cuts next year,you have shorts covering and buyers...I'll say it again it was a gamble today who knows what todays numbers could have been,but they were bullish for the homies..
Broker,I would like to but some option puts,on the dow,s$p or the q's, or any puts but not sure how,can you suggest what you might do,my rational is that the rally will end soon..and i can buy the puts and then dump as the markets tank? Thanks for your time and advice!
# posted by : 11:50 AM
: 11:50 AM
I never play the rebalancing game. I just think it will be one big nonevent.
As far as puts are concerned:
If you want more bang for your buck, go with the OEX (s&P100) puts.
They give you about 13% for every 1% in the oex.
Crazy stuff.
However, I am not using any options atthis stage. I am looking to buy MZZ and short more SIRF.
As far as puts are concerned:
If you want more bang for your buck, go with the OEX (s&P100) puts.
They give you about 13% for every 1% in the oex.
Crazy stuff.
However, I am not using any options atthis stage. I am looking to buy MZZ and short more SIRF.
All my shorts are down too (so far). I'm w/ u in thinking the rally is exhausted. IMO, If you're not already long, it's too late to get in.
I never believed the CPI rally last month, and I'm still not going to change my mind. The sectors fueling the rally are now short term overbought. That's a pretty weak argument for a bear, but I'll believe it for now.
I never believed the CPI rally last month, and I'm still not going to change my mind. The sectors fueling the rally are now short term overbought. That's a pretty weak argument for a bear, but I'll believe it for now.
Gio-
Supply and demand is the best argument for a trading bear.
Now, I do not subscribe to the theory the markets will nose dive to 8,000. I am just looking to make a few dollars on the way down.
Is that too much to ask?
BTW: Cramer may have put in a top.
Supply and demand is the best argument for a trading bear.
Now, I do not subscribe to the theory the markets will nose dive to 8,000. I am just looking to make a few dollars on the way down.
Is that too much to ask?
BTW: Cramer may have put in a top.
Hi Broker, I believe this rally is exhausted like everyone. I bought some VLO around $51, crude is just down too much. I believe there can be a bounce next week or before the end of the month.
Also, I think AL is a short with broken chart and looking to buy some JSDA and add to my CAH position.
Also, I think AL is a short with broken chart and looking to buy some JSDA and add to my CAH position.
# posted by : 12:18 PM
: 12:18 PM
PUTS......
Thanks broker for you reply,i don't know how to read the oex numbers,like I'm looking at the Oct 605...what would the s&p have to be to equal 605?TIA...or is this the level of the s%p 100?sorry for my confusion,but i am never afriead to ask super dumb questions!!
So after thinking for a second I guess these are the levels for the S&P 100.I'm off to the chart!
Thanks broker for you reply,i don't know how to read the oex numbers,like I'm looking at the Oct 605...what would the s&p have to be to equal 605?TIA...or is this the level of the s%p 100?sorry for my confusion,but i am never afriead to ask super dumb questions!!
So after thinking for a second I guess these are the levels for the S&P 100.I'm off to the chart!
# posted by : 12:18 PM
: 12:18 PM
I would go in the money puts. This way, you get instant gratification.
Right now, the OEX is at 610-- 1 point from a 52 week high.
Right now, the OEX is at 610-- 1 point from a 52 week high.
Hey broker I am thinking about some UPl calls oct 45...brought some this morning,at 2.oo even..
I think now and soon ( whatever that could mean) is a good time to buy some engery calls...xle,oih..or better things like BHI and mro--I am looking to scale in to a postion started today.
I think now and soon ( whatever that could mean) is a good time to buy some engery calls...xle,oih..or better things like BHI and mro--I am looking to scale in to a postion started today.
# posted by : 12:39 PM
: 12:39 PM
Risky stuff.
Let's agree that buying oil now is like catching a falling knife.
I am sticking with stock.
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Let's agree that buying oil now is like catching a falling knife.
I am sticking with stock.
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