Thursday, September 14, 2006

 

Sector Spotlight: Networkers

Not to sound like a broken record, but I feel buying tech now is equal to throwing money into a bonfire.

Before the market takes off again, it has to consolidate or go down. That's what markets do.

Also, if the premise of this rally was based upon cheap oil (laugher), well, then many will be disappointed when it trades back to $70. What to do with retail?

Unfortunately, the "goldilocks" economy doesn't exist-- it never has. That's a bunch of bunk made up by the hacks on tv. Our economy is great, but it will have periods of downturn. Furthermore, when the economy starts to slow, as it is now, stocks will go down because earnings will be less.

It really is that simple.

Yesterday, Cramer highlighted LVLT as the best way to play YouTube. I disagree.

As I mentioned earlier, the best way to play YouTube is Limelight. Unfortunately, they are private. However, the following stocks service Limelight and will inevitably benefit from the YouTube phenomenon:

AVCI

MRVC

GLBC

EQIX

FDRY

ADBE


Also, VSTH online advertising department (video ads) may have a shot at getting YouTube as a client. If they do, watch out.

NOTE: Cramer, by calling a top in HANS @ $26-ish, actually called a bottom. The stock is-on-fire. Also, SIRF is breaking down. Thank God.

The following networkers are showing some mojo:

STLW +11.5%
ATCO +6.2%

SNR +5%
APAT +4.9%

LVLT +4.1%

ORCT +4%

AKAM +2.3%

Comments:
I think the networking build is real. I respect that you arent comfortable going long, but be careful going short. Networking is not tied to consumer spending so much as corporate...and corps are flush with cash and heating up to a full jihad against eachother in the fight for "triple-play" (voice, data, video) delivery. They have to spend...and the have to spend asap because video is taxing the system.

I know, I know. You've been hearing this since 1998. I agree. But today, video is finally really there.
 
I am a believer.

Also, I do not have any shorts in the networkers.

I am skeptical of a Sept-Oct rise in the major indices.

Call it battered wife syndrom.
 
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