Thursday, September 21, 2006


Was Yesterday the Blow Off Top?

It makes a lot of sense.

Yesterday, Cramer was giddy, CNBC more unbearable than usual and I felt awful being on the wrong side of the tape. Most tops and bottoms mark high points in investor stress. Meaning: It is common to see investors step in at the top because things look great, while abandoning their positions at the lows-- because they look so bad.

Separately, I feel like punching holes through my monitor, watching SIRF tank (I covered my short $1.50 higher) and RACK not go down (I am short) as the market gets fucking ball and chained.

Also, I am seeing major damage in the SOX today. However, the networkers, namely: TLAB, RACK, BWNG, AKAM, JNPR and FFIV are holding their own and advancing. Go figure.

For what it's worth, the Stock Trader's Almanac has today and tomorrow listed as a "bearish" day. Also, they mention that the "Week after Septemeber Triple Witching Dow Down 12 of last 15."

As for RACK, I was excited to see that this was on your watchlist to short about a week ago because I had it on mine also. However, looking at both the daily and weekly charts, the "Parabolic SAR" shows that this stock is in a new short term uptrend as of Monday. However, I do not see it going much higher ($30-31)

As for SIRF, I too was short on that one, and sold today - I see the risk of this stock reversing and going higher much greater than the reward of it going lower at this point, so I locked in the gains. The Parabolic SAR showed this stock was in a new downtrend as of Tuesday. Its next support level is in the low 22's. If that support is breached, it is clear sailing down to the 19 range.

I also just want to say how much I really enjoy your blog. It gives me some insights I would not otherwise be able to experience. Thank you.
Very thoughtful and kind remarks, thanks.

I really like your technical imput. Why don't you create a user name and chime in more often?
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