Monday, October 02, 2006

 

Closing Comments

In my opinion, today marked a near term top in the market. Although volume was weak, notable weakness was abundant in high multiple tech, transports and energy.

To believe that the consumer is on fucking fire and MRVL will blow-the-fucking-doors off the consensus because oil is lower is beyond stupid. It's dangerous.

Market pundits like Cramer pounding the table for high multiple tech, after 20-30% moves is cause for alarm. The prudent thing to do after such big moves is reduce risk.

Look, I know many of you think I am just some guy poking in the wind-- trying to guess a top or making poorly researched market calls. Not true.

My research is thorough and my market timing (normally) is excellent.

Bottom line: Look out for a red October.

NOTE: What do you know, right after I completed this article, the fuckers at MRVL issue an earnings warning. I am sure Cramer will say the stock price reflects a potential warning. To that I say: Fuck you; sir, you are wrong.

The following stocks had notable upside moves:

FBVG, PDA, VPS, AXR, GVA, RMX, TEX, HET, BYD, MCEL, GPRE, ARTW, CPST, EEE, HEP, STP, ERS, UNRG, ENY, BMRN, MDV, STGN, HGSI, MYOG, IFLO, ARNA, CNU, HEPH, TGLO, INSP, BCSI, QPSA, WAVX, HPQ, SNR, AMCC, BRCD, CCBL, INPH, PSUN, TAGS, JLN, PIR, VLCM, ZUMZ, ESST, DGIT, CSPI, KNXA, VTSS, OVTI, BITS, BESI, VIMC, DTLK, SANZ, TNE, IMFN, USMO, MDLK, RCCC, SLNK, WEN, FSN, INCX, CREL, TRGT, FXCB, ZONS, PHMD, NEOL, APPA, PTN, GMO, RGN, SVL, OMG, TNL and GFI.

The following stocks had notable downside moves:

BFF, CORS, BBX, TWPG, FRGB, LEND, SPTN, FIZ, SAM, WBD, COSI, MSSR, TSTY, CHCI, BLDR, CALC, TARR, CLB, HC, TRN, USAK, CHRW, EXM, SGMS, BQI, XNL, SYNM, LNG, GGR, GSF, PLLL, DWSN, NTG, HOS, CFK, MMR, NXY, IOC, PKD, SII, CPE, BEXP, FSYS, JDO, TEC, BRNC, PTEN, DO, DVSA, ICOC, ATLS, NHY, EAC, TMY, HP, ATW, NOV, FUEL, PRB, HOKU, ENER, BBG, ALJ, TONS, RTI, GILD, SUF, MEK, MIND, BIOV, NTMD, ALKS, EMIS, ARIA, AMLN, ONXX, KOOL, COLY, TRCA, CUTR, ACAD, BDMS, HYTM, RGEN, PRZ, BCRX, GNBT, WMT, MIVA, FLWS, SRVY, BVSN, WEBX, ENTU, AMZN, JUPM, LQDT, DIVX, MIKR, AVCI, RVBD, INTV, TERN, CNVR, VGZ, GIGM, ATCO, DVW, AVNX, VOCL, BKHM, LVLT, TIII, NUAN, CROX, SFP, BKRS, TVIA, OLED, KEA, CRYP, SEAC, RNOW, EPIC, ERTS, NWRE, ADSK, ININ, CTXS, OPSW, LSCC, NVEC, EMKR, IBIS, SMTL, CMOS, CNXT, FORM, TRID, SPSN, OVEN, IMX, SIRF, AATI, SFUN, HILL, TPC, IFON, QCOM, NTLS, OPMR, LCAV, ITP, FLT, ATEC, WSTM, AZPN, HYTM, BEAV, BRR, THE, VAR and SRX.

Comments:
I don't know about your market timing but I'm sure your research is robust.

I wrote this morning that it would be a down day because the three sisters (Q's, DIA and SPY) all threw off a slew of steeples last Wed - Fri on the two hour charts. Clear as a bell - imagine my surprise when the little buggers went up for the first 3 hours - (of course I played two dippers - DHI and VRSN and made some coin on both - selling just a few cents off high of day).

Anyway, historically October is an up month but only after a couple of down weeks. So I'll disagree with your "red October" thesis. I'll give you to the 15th or so but not much more.

Needless to say no one better bet the farm on the ramblings of this ol' man.

Time to fill the gin box going to be a coolish night.
 
Holly fucking shit!!! Look at MRVL now Cramer!!! Damn they just re-opened it.
 
If you are so bearish on the market and economy, why do you continue to hold so many long positions?

What is your latest take on CORS? It got pounded today.
 
I was wondering what, if any, indecies you might short. I know that you have a position with MZZ, and was wondering what your lond term thinking is behind that trade. Thanks.
 
I hold long positions because the long term trend is up. However, I also hedge my longs with high beta shorts.

CORS got hit but will rebound.

MZZ is my fav index short.
 
I think it takes balls to play individual stocks in this market. And it takes balls of steel to try to time the market. You got both and I enjoy reading your posts every day. Cramer has Adult ADD. He will say anything and recommend any stock that is in "Vogue" just to get you to watch his program & subcribe to AAP. His picks suck. As for OIL, I think Oil will bounce between 55-70 between now and April 07'. Therefore the drillers will be a safe place to be in the energy sector. I agree with you in many aspects about the market. I also think it is at or near its top. I strongly believe that we may even see a new low for S&P and NASD before year end. On a personal note, I am one of the lucky few who sold 60% of my holdings on March 7th 2000 because I trusted my instinct over my broker's advice. Now I trade on my own...
 
Thanks.

I just got some bad info on drillers from one of my sources. I'll write about it tomorrow.
 
Damn you for still shorting RACK! I'm still kindah pissed since I covered the day before the buy-the-dip-shits started dumping.

I know ur bullish on DNA, but I couldn't resist in shorting some biotechs that were up on sympathy with buy-out news going around. Lots of action going on in that sector.

Anyway, blogger hates me. haven't been able to post all weekend. I'll try a different computer.
 
Try a different browser. I use firefox.

DNA is not a trade. I own the stock for a long time and will buy more-- even if it dipped 20% from here.
 
Gio I am with you, I shorted RACK when you did and it tanked last week and I hopped out with a tiny gain. Got shaken out when it went up on that comment. Then the bastard tanks, oh well so it is.

I thought broker would post this but I wanted to, Cramer is now down 22% on MRVL in just 2 weeks. He owns 5000 @ $19.59 for a $19,000 loss.

You think he will buy 2000 here tomorrow? I do.
 
I didn't want to "infringe" on Cramer's website.

Thanks for posting
 
Ok ok ok I tried guys but just missed, Cramer bought 2500 shares of MRVL here and not 2000. Oh well I was almost right ;)
 
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