Monday, October 02, 2006
To believe that the consumer is on fucking fire and MRVL will blow-the-fucking-doors off the consensus because oil is lower is beyond stupid. It's dangerous.
Market pundits like Cramer pounding the table for high multiple tech, after 20-30% moves is cause for alarm. The prudent thing to do after such big moves is reduce risk.
Look, I know many of you think I am just some guy poking in the wind-- trying to guess a top or making poorly researched market calls. Not true.
My research is thorough and my market timing (normally) is excellent.
Bottom line: Look out for a red October.
NOTE: What do you know, right after I completed this article, the fuckers at MRVL issue an earnings warning. I am sure Cramer will say the stock price reflects a potential warning. To that I say: Fuck you; sir, you are wrong.
The following stocks had notable upside moves:
FBVG, PDA, VPS, AXR, GVA, RMX, TEX, HET, BYD, MCEL, GPRE, ARTW, CPST, EEE, HEP, STP, ERS, UNRG, ENY, BMRN, MDV, STGN, HGSI, MYOG, IFLO, ARNA, CNU, HEPH, TGLO, INSP, BCSI, QPSA, WAVX, HPQ, SNR, AMCC, BRCD, CCBL, INPH, PSUN, TAGS, JLN, PIR, VLCM, ZUMZ, ESST, DGIT, CSPI, KNXA, VTSS, OVTI, BITS, BESI, VIMC, DTLK, SANZ, TNE, IMFN, USMO, MDLK, RCCC, SLNK, WEN, FSN, INCX, CREL, TRGT, FXCB, ZONS, PHMD, NEOL, APPA, PTN, GMO, RGN, SVL, OMG, TNL and GFI.
The following stocks had notable downside moves:
BFF, CORS, BBX, TWPG, FRGB, LEND, SPTN, FIZ, SAM, WBD, COSI, MSSR, TSTY, CHCI, BLDR, CALC, TARR, CLB, HC, TRN, USAK, CHRW, EXM, SGMS, BQI, XNL, SYNM, LNG, GGR, GSF, PLLL, DWSN, NTG, HOS, CFK, MMR, NXY, IOC, PKD, SII, CPE, BEXP, FSYS, JDO, TEC, BRNC, PTEN, DO, DVSA, ICOC, ATLS, NHY, EAC, TMY, HP, ATW, NOV, FUEL, PRB, HOKU, ENER, BBG, ALJ, TONS, RTI, GILD, SUF, MEK, MIND, BIOV, NTMD, ALKS, EMIS, ARIA, AMLN, ONXX, KOOL, COLY, TRCA, CUTR, ACAD, BDMS, HYTM, RGEN, PRZ, BCRX, GNBT, WMT, MIVA, FLWS, SRVY, BVSN, WEBX, ENTU, AMZN, JUPM, LQDT, DIVX, MIKR, AVCI, RVBD, INTV, TERN, CNVR, VGZ, GIGM, ATCO, DVW, AVNX, VOCL, BKHM, LVLT, TIII, NUAN, CROX, SFP, BKRS, TVIA, OLED, KEA, CRYP, SEAC, RNOW, EPIC, ERTS, NWRE, ADSK, ININ, CTXS, OPSW, LSCC, NVEC, EMKR, IBIS, SMTL, CMOS, CNXT, FORM, TRID, SPSN, OVEN, IMX, SIRF, AATI, SFUN, HILL, TPC, IFON, QCOM, NTLS, OPMR, LCAV, ITP, FLT, ATEC, WSTM, AZPN, HYTM, BEAV, BRR, THE, VAR and SRX.
I wrote this morning that it would be a down day because the three sisters (Q's, DIA and SPY) all threw off a slew of steeples last Wed - Fri on the two hour charts. Clear as a bell - imagine my surprise when the little buggers went up for the first 3 hours - (of course I played two dippers - DHI and VRSN and made some coin on both - selling just a few cents off high of day).
Anyway, historically October is an up month but only after a couple of down weeks. So I'll disagree with your "red October" thesis. I'll give you to the 15th or so but not much more.
Needless to say no one better bet the farm on the ramblings of this ol' man.
Time to fill the gin box going to be a coolish night.
What is your latest take on CORS? It got pounded today.
CORS got hit but will rebound.
MZZ is my fav index short.
I know ur bullish on DNA, but I couldn't resist in shorting some biotechs that were up on sympathy with buy-out news going around. Lots of action going on in that sector.
Anyway, blogger hates me. haven't been able to post all weekend. I'll try a different computer.
DNA is not a trade. I own the stock for a long time and will buy more-- even if it dipped 20% from here.
I thought broker would post this but I wanted to, Cramer is now down 22% on MRVL in just 2 weeks. He owns 5000 @ $19.59 for a $19,000 loss.
You think he will buy 2000 here tomorrow? I do.
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