Tuesday, October 03, 2006

 

Closing Comments

Today, I threw in the towel on my RACK short, covering the majority of my position around $26.30. Additionally, I initated a small long position in FDRY and added to an existing long position in ORCL.

FDRY has Limelight (AKAM's main competitor) as a client and just signed a deal with BIDU today. I like the action in the stock and feel it could go to $15.

On the short side, I still hold positions in ATHR and MZZ. The reason why I covered RACK is due to market sentiment.

Meaning: If bad economic data, fucked up MRVL guidance, and dozens of option backdating scandals can't rattle the markets, I don't know what can.

I am tired of pushing the boulder uphill-- its much easier to roll that bitch down.

So, for now, until I see a break, I will add long positions and lever myself to the dumb money sloshing around. However, I will keep a very short leash on new trading longs.

As for today's markets, it was incredibly strong-- as CNBC got their new high and the bulls cut up a few bears in the process. However, there was considerable weakness in Semi's, as MRVL dragged everything down with it.

Prescious Metals and Energy stocks got poleaxed today and look ridiculously bad. Therefore, they are probably good trading buys here.

Finally, the Retailers were on fire today, as the consumer is deep pocketed-- due to collapsing energy prices.

Botton line: The markets have momentum to the upside. Fucking Goldilocks.

NOTE: It appears VLO warned after the close. The stock will likely trade up tomorrow, since everyone knew it was coming.

The follwing stocks had notable upside moves:

ICE, IFC, SPTN, PFCB, AXR, IMKTA, IRS, IRBT, AH, REV, PWX, QLTY, JBHT, SWFT, WERN, CHNR, XNL, USEY, PDRT, DVSA, HSR, PRB, BBC, MDV, LCBM, STGN, EMIS, IFLO, BDMS, VSTA, STJ, SIGA, GNBT, CARN, HEB, APTM, SRVY, BVSN, PACT, NENG, CMGI, CTRP, GOAM, INSP, MAMA, QPSA, WSPI, WBMD, DTAS, CTDC, LPTH, ZNH, ATCO, APAT, LNOP, FTGX, PCTI, GIGM, GGBM, TUTS, MIKR, OCCF, AV, CRI, SPLS, HOTT, CROX, MWRK, RVI, EVST, ARO, BID, TWTR, TVIA, HILL, LIOX, OPSW, CPCI, CRM, CTCH, EPIC, SWKS, SMTL, RFMD, CLEC, PTNR, DECC, PGWC, CLUB, CBRX, ACOR, NMGC, SYNX, SIGA, TCHC, CLRK, NTOL, BRR, TWW, XPO, AAU, RWC, WCC, SPC, FLE, VDM, NWY, PBY, CAB, CDL, HVT and FFH.

The follwing stocks had notable downside moves:

FACT, FRGB, PBG, NWD, COSI, TSTY, WLT, DHI, EME, EXP, JOE, OSG, CLB, TBSI, PLLL, IVAN, GGR, NGAS, LNG, CFK, BQI, IOC, SHI, HOC, SU, ECA, PCZ, VLO, ABLE, NXY, WRES, GSF, MRO, SUN, DWSN, MCF, CCJ, OXY, TSO, ANR, PGS, JDO, AEZ, QTWW, DRQ, NOV, TMY, BRNC, DO, CAM, RIG, SM, CRED, GDP, HAL, END, SWN, BEXP, CPST, BTJ, PDC, HES, CNQ, BJS, FDG, PTEN, TGC, DK, BMD, HOKU, ACI, GGY, RRC, FUEL, SUF, ERS, FCX, CUP, NTO, PD, TIE, BVN, BOOM, RTP, X, PCU, AL, ZEUS, NUE, GILD, AVNR, BIOV, BIVN, MATK, VPHM, FOXH, CLZR, BSML, DGX, BCRX, XOM, MIVA, ICCA, IPAS, KNOT, LQDT, BIDU, CNVR, VGZ, HL, SA, SLW, NXG, GROW, ABX, GG, KGC, AUY, PAAS, NEM, AU, MRVL, GEX, LTRX, IKAN, NETL, TXCC, ANTP, NT, AMCC, LVLT, EZPW, COLM, WEDX, ZRAN, OLED, PANL, CRYP, SMSI, CTXS, TIBX, EMKR, CNXT, IBIS, STTS, SMTC, BRCM, ATHR, UCTT, BITS, IOTN, IMX, NGPS, SIRF, ANAD, AATI, LSI, MDLK, CYCL, CWCO, EPG, STR, EICU, SFLY, REST, CPX, BAS, MWA, MR, DXPE, PEIX, MXWL, HDTV, MODT, LMRA, DCTH, NCST, LCRY, IPSU, SSRI, PLM, ALY, TRT, CLG, GBN, NAK, GRS, ITP, GDI and MDG.

Comments:
F'ing dip buyer :P

P.S. Does your capitulation signal a market top? :)
 
I'm just a chartist - I don't play fundamentals and I make a buck my way. I was a fundamentalist for years and went broke twice. The chart tells the story - 30 and 15 are the next two stops. No one can make a case for VLO above $10 - demand or not and the fact is the demand is just bushshit. Had that moron open the SPR like he should have if he was president of All the people and not just rich people oil would be around 35 - 40 bucks right now. We are swimming in oil everywhere you look there is oil. The SPR can't take anymore and that is our tax dollars at work. We buy it to store it to increase demand artificially so we can pay more at the pump. Does that make sense? About as much as when the Fed raises interest rates because the price of oil is going up and driving inflation into the economy.

Sorry about the rant - all I wanted to do was to provide a friendly warning that sometimes things might not appear as they seem.

I'll go away now that I'm no longer welcome here.
 
you're always welcome here.

As far as me being a top, I have plenty of cash to go short.
 
Broker,

I have been looking around on a lot of blogs and some very prominent blogs even and I see a lot of people saying this is a false high and that things are not even close to good right now. Are you seeing this and do you see a massive MCAD divergence on the DOW? SMH looks to be close to breaking down pretty bad too. Thoughts?
 
I have been a big non-believer of this rally and have taken short side trading positions.

However, it seems to me a lot of money is being drawn in from all sorts of places--pushing the indices higher.

So, I have decided to scalp a few longs, while always looking for a breakdown to go short in a big way.

Basically, I am hedging.
 
what do you think of a short trade on WFR. It's been dropping ever since shin-etsu said "we will bury you" with excess wafer capacity. The other leg that had been propping WFR was positive sentiment on solar, and of course everyone's throwing up on solar now.
 
Some analyst came out with negative comments on wafer shipments today.

I think short WFR makes sense.
 
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