Tuesday, October 03, 2006


Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors

Wow, I am shocked the market isn't down 100 or more. Investors need to wake up and pay attention to warnings, such as MRVL. It seems the only sector people are willing to sell are the oils.

They pile into fucking airliners, as if 9/11 never happened. They buy retail stocks, as if the consumer is rich with savings. They buy auto stocks, as if GM and F actually make good cars.

Have investors forgotten the painful times, already? Do they really believe the shit they read and see or are they just sentimental fools?

As for the semi's:

Next week LRCX sets the tone, being the first major semiconductor company to report 3rd quarter earnings. Today, the SOX is not rolling over, despite a mega warning from MRVL. Therefore, I am going to dig in my heels and find another semi to sell short. I feel the SOX should be down at least 2% today.

Currently, I am short ATHR, RACK and long MZZ.

The following Semiconductor stocks have absolutely no mojo:

MRVL -15%
ZRAN -6%

BRCM -5.8%

UCTT -5.2%

EMKR -4.7%

NVDA -3.8%

HITT -3.5%

Just curious why you are long MZZ? I have no position and just trying to understand your thoughts on this. By the way do you see all of the indecision in the market and the churning? I believe we will see atleast a small pullback in October as you mentioned before. I remember last pullback when people kept saying "everything is good I am buying the dips" and then eventually the sellers overwhelmed them. The longer we sit with indecision I think the more people move to the sell side. Thoughts?
MZZ is mid cap short 200%.

I feel earnings will dictate the direction and tone of the market.

Since feel earnings will be less than expected, well, you know what I think will happen.
Sorry mis read it and thought you were long midcaps. My mistake but hey looks like I am not the only one backwards as shit today. Look at the market soaring again like it could go to 13,000.
How 'bout SIRF short? earns are 10/19. It's been profitable trade so far, now back below the 50day, not showing any signs of life.
I would cover SIRF. It has already tanked pretty hard.
Totally agree with you. It's totally beyond me that GM and F are actually flying.
GM and F have done nothing but window dressing to address their long term pension obligations. If I thought it too dangerous to own at 18 why would I buy it at 33? They have a lot of cash on hand but their yearly expenditures are outpacing their income.
Can you shine some of your sector spotlight on Gold (and other metals)... the commodity looks to be in trouble. First the dollar took a shot at gold, now oil. Gold < $600 is not a good place for me.
Gold is breaking near term support.
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