Tuesday, October 17, 2006

 

Sector Spotlight: Semiconductors

Well, the PPI numbers were bad, so stocks are diving a bit this morning. Also, the know-it-all analyst's are coming out of the woodworks with all kinds of downgrades.

Downgrades of LRCX, INTC, YHOO and XLNX. But, Cowen decides to fuck Broker A, by UPGRADING ATHR, my only short. Fuck you Cowen, this turkey is going down today.

Additionally, LVLT bought BWNG. Now, I suspect stocks like GLBC, BKHM, FNSR, SCMR, AVCI and EQIX will be in play-- due to takeover speculation. Again, providing the market cooperates, I feel the Networkers are the place to be.

Also CME bought BOT. Perhaps, ICE or ISE will get a bid next.

As for the Semi's:

So far, they are being poleaxed, down 2.3% for the day. With the market selling off, coupled with Goldman's downgrade of INTC, ahead of their earnings tonight, investors are cashing in their chips-- literally.

Regarding INTC, I believe they will hit their numbers, but will lower guidance. Therefore, I feel the SOX will have its head chopped off, in fairly short order.

NOTE: So far, the "Fly Survey" has been a contrary indicator, regarding the price of oil and the direction of the market. This week's survey suggests you, the sheeple, are bullish. Makes you think. Hmm.

The following Semiconductor stocks have absolutely no mojo:

UCTT -8.1%
SSTI -5%

NETL -4.7%

TRID -4.4%

BRCM -4%

SIMG -3.6%

LRCX -3.2%

INTC -3.1%

Comments:
broker a: Quick thought on HAL? What is your forecast here? I know you are bullish energy and I am as well (last I checked the trolls in my backyard are not making anymore of that black stuff) after this poleaxing of oil.
 
I don't like HAL, because of the political pressure they may face if the democrats take control.

Great company, but too much bad press.
 
What's your read on today's action (you said last week that today would be important). Not just specific sectors but the market as a whole? Is this a healthy pullback from the recent (seemingly manic) uptrend? Or are we headed over a cliff?
 
After tonight's earnings, we will know the near term direction.

We are down today because of the PPI.
 
I know you don't care for YHOO but considering all the bad news out there, analysts downgrading the stock, the setback with the Panama project, etc. etc. could it possibly be close to a bottom? Everyone hates the stock and for good reason but usually when Cramer gives up on a stock I like to start looking at buying. What do you think?
 
I just saw the dip buyers roll around the corner there headed towards Wall, the backseat is full of blind homebuilders, I heard one of them say something about he filled up his el camino for 25$. Whatever that means.
 
I don't like YHOO into earnings.
 
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