Friday, March 23, 2007
Closing Comments
It was a big week for "The Fly." I was up more than 4%, with big dicked gains in just about everything. Unlike others, I am not afraid of risk. As a matter of fact, I am risk. My whole existence is to shoot and stand.
Now, from time to time, I will get poleaxed and regret being such a fucktarded gun slinger. However, during this bull run, I have come to the conclusion that I am unbreakable. That's right.
Frankly, my contacts, coupled with my "calculator brain" are too good for most of you retards to comprehend. I know, most of you turn on your screen every morning, without knowing what Mother Market will bring for you-- during the rest of the day. I know what the bitch is doing.
She is making me more money, while punching you in the nose.
Following such a great week, I respectfully decline to "educate" you any further, as to what looks good and why.
Finally, make sure to visit this fucktarded blog this weekend. My new weekend blogger will educated you, beyond belief.
NOTE: How about my IOC?
Now, from time to time, I will get poleaxed and regret being such a fucktarded gun slinger. However, during this bull run, I have come to the conclusion that I am unbreakable. That's right.
Frankly, my contacts, coupled with my "calculator brain" are too good for most of you retards to comprehend. I know, most of you turn on your screen every morning, without knowing what Mother Market will bring for you-- during the rest of the day. I know what the bitch is doing.
She is making me more money, while punching you in the nose.
Following such a great week, I respectfully decline to "educate" you any further, as to what looks good and why.
Finally, make sure to visit this fucktarded blog this weekend. My new weekend blogger will educated you, beyond belief.
NOTE: How about my IOC?
Comments:
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Nice work Fly.
I am sitting pretty on a 3.5% gain this week thanks to timely buys in CORS, EQIX, ACAS and a Russell 2000 ETF last week. I just wish every week I could get gains like this.
I am sitting pretty on a 3.5% gain this week thanks to timely buys in CORS, EQIX, ACAS and a Russell 2000 ETF last week. I just wish every week I could get gains like this.
Here is your weekly education.
Here is a comparison between the misinformed flyonwallstreet site and the correct way to view a follow through day by IBD.
WRONG WAY on here counts the second day of big gains on big volume as the follow through day.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_xHhMy_z72mc/RfS_A4ReD-I/AAAAAAAAAMI/JCvy0_odWXw/s1600-h/comp_02-03_ftd.bmp
INCORRECT WAY ABOVE
=======================
THE RIGHT WAY IBD's way
http://blogjam.typepad.com/blogjam/images/IBD_7-28-04.GIF
Follow Through Day is point #3 which is the 4th day [it HAS TO BE the 4th day or later to qualify as a Follow Through Day.]
http://blogjam.typepad.com/blogjam/2004/07/from_todays_ibd.html
This is basically what I mean when I talk about a "follow-through day." Sometimes you might get a variation on day 1, for example a powerful reversal from a morning selloff, but the rally just falls short of pushing the indexes into the green for the day. I would consider that the first day of a rally even though the indexes may have closed with a small loss. You can also get variations on the follow-through days themselves. The market is art, not science, and if you are too caught up in exact definitions of what this or that is then you are not using your brain to make judgments. Sooner or later you'll get your ass handed to you if you do that! Here is the article:
Wednesday, July 28, 2004
All Major Bull Rallies Begin With A Follow-Through Day
BY JONAH KERI
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
You hear it so much, it's almost become the naysayer's mantra: "You can't time the market."
Short and punchy? Sure. And also completely false.
The market's price-and-volume action gives clear signs of the market's direction. A follow-through day gives you the biggest of head starts — timing the market's bottom.
A follow-through occurs at the earliest stages of a fledgling rally. After a significant market correction, the market will look to regain its footing. Any up day then counts as Day 1 of an attempted rally.
The next two sessions, Days 2 and 3, don't need to show much in the way of gains. As long as they don't undercut Day 1's low, the rally remains intact.
For a follow-through to occur, you want it to land between Day 4 and Day 7 of the attempted rally. On any one of those days, you're looking for one or more of the major indexes — the Nasdaq, S&P 500 or Dow — to rise 1.7% or more in higher volume than the previous day.
Though a follow-through in that span gives the strongest signal for a new rally, one that hits anywhere between Day 4 and Day 10 can work. Follow-throughs that occur after Day 10 yield lower success rates.
Though this method may seem esoteric at first, keep in mind it has decades of IBD research behind it.
To gear up for the next follow-through, study charts of past market bottoms. The Nasdaq flashed a follow-through in October 1998 which kicked off the final, furious stretch that carried stocks to huge gains.
Just remember: Not every follow-through triggers a huge, new bull market. But no raging bull has ever started without one.
After three years of harrowing losses, investors were starved for good news by the time March 2003 rolled around. On March 12 of that year, the Nasdaq fell to a low of 1253.21 before bouncing back for a 0.6% gain in swift volume (See point 1 on chart). That was Day 1.
The Nasdaq roared ahead 4.8% in massive trade the next day (See point 2 on chart). Exciting action? Sure. But you still wanted to wait for Day 4-7 to confirm the new rally.
Click To View Larger Image
On March 17, the follow-through hit on Day 4. The Nasdaq jumped 3.9% in sharply higher turnover(See point 3 on chart). Volume was also above average. Though the index stumbled a bit on March 31 (See point 4 on chart) and a few other times shortly after the follow-through, it never approached its prior lows. The Nasdaq would go on to gain 72% to its January 2004 peak.
Source: Investor’s Business Daily Newspaper and investors.com website.
July 28, 2004 in Mr Market | Permalink
Here is a comparison between the misinformed flyonwallstreet site and the correct way to view a follow through day by IBD.
WRONG WAY on here counts the second day of big gains on big volume as the follow through day.
http://bp3.blogger.com/_xHhMy_z72mc/RfS_A4ReD-I/AAAAAAAAAMI/JCvy0_odWXw/s1600-h/comp_02-03_ftd.bmp
INCORRECT WAY ABOVE
=======================
THE RIGHT WAY IBD's way
http://blogjam.typepad.com/blogjam/images/IBD_7-28-04.GIF
Follow Through Day is point #3 which is the 4th day [it HAS TO BE the 4th day or later to qualify as a Follow Through Day.]
http://blogjam.typepad.com/blogjam/2004/07/from_todays_ibd.html
This is basically what I mean when I talk about a "follow-through day." Sometimes you might get a variation on day 1, for example a powerful reversal from a morning selloff, but the rally just falls short of pushing the indexes into the green for the day. I would consider that the first day of a rally even though the indexes may have closed with a small loss. You can also get variations on the follow-through days themselves. The market is art, not science, and if you are too caught up in exact definitions of what this or that is then you are not using your brain to make judgments. Sooner or later you'll get your ass handed to you if you do that! Here is the article:
Wednesday, July 28, 2004
All Major Bull Rallies Begin With A Follow-Through Day
BY JONAH KERI
INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
You hear it so much, it's almost become the naysayer's mantra: "You can't time the market."
Short and punchy? Sure. And also completely false.
The market's price-and-volume action gives clear signs of the market's direction. A follow-through day gives you the biggest of head starts — timing the market's bottom.
A follow-through occurs at the earliest stages of a fledgling rally. After a significant market correction, the market will look to regain its footing. Any up day then counts as Day 1 of an attempted rally.
The next two sessions, Days 2 and 3, don't need to show much in the way of gains. As long as they don't undercut Day 1's low, the rally remains intact.
For a follow-through to occur, you want it to land between Day 4 and Day 7 of the attempted rally. On any one of those days, you're looking for one or more of the major indexes — the Nasdaq, S&P 500 or Dow — to rise 1.7% or more in higher volume than the previous day.
Though a follow-through in that span gives the strongest signal for a new rally, one that hits anywhere between Day 4 and Day 10 can work. Follow-throughs that occur after Day 10 yield lower success rates.
Though this method may seem esoteric at first, keep in mind it has decades of IBD research behind it.
To gear up for the next follow-through, study charts of past market bottoms. The Nasdaq flashed a follow-through in October 1998 which kicked off the final, furious stretch that carried stocks to huge gains.
Just remember: Not every follow-through triggers a huge, new bull market. But no raging bull has ever started without one.
After three years of harrowing losses, investors were starved for good news by the time March 2003 rolled around. On March 12 of that year, the Nasdaq fell to a low of 1253.21 before bouncing back for a 0.6% gain in swift volume (See point 1 on chart). That was Day 1.
The Nasdaq roared ahead 4.8% in massive trade the next day (See point 2 on chart). Exciting action? Sure. But you still wanted to wait for Day 4-7 to confirm the new rally.
Click To View Larger Image
On March 17, the follow-through hit on Day 4. The Nasdaq jumped 3.9% in sharply higher turnover(See point 3 on chart). Volume was also above average. Though the index stumbled a bit on March 31 (See point 4 on chart) and a few other times shortly after the follow-through, it never approached its prior lows. The Nasdaq would go on to gain 72% to its January 2004 peak.
Source: Investor’s Business Daily Newspaper and investors.com website.
July 28, 2004 in Mr Market | Permalink
Hey John, I wrote that fucking article you are talking about, and I'm the one that put all that time into making those fucking charts. So I drew the fucking line to the wrong candle??? What the fuck? Why not just a friendly message- "Hey dude, I know writing for fly must be hectic, but in your haste to meet his deadlines, you drew your line to the wrong fucking candle." That would work fine for me, I would edit the chart, repaste, and everyone is happy. No, you have to go out swinging your dick like anyone around here will give a rats ass.
Now, if you notice from my research, IBD's follow through mantra has been wrong more than it has been right during the current bull run. Did you get that far into my article, or did you just get hung up on wanting to prove someone around here wrong?
If you want to bitch more about it, or generally just bitch about what I write, come over to my blog.
Sorry to rant on your blog, Fly.
Now, if you notice from my research, IBD's follow through mantra has been wrong more than it has been right during the current bull run. Did you get that far into my article, or did you just get hung up on wanting to prove someone around here wrong?
If you want to bitch more about it, or generally just bitch about what I write, come over to my blog.
Sorry to rant on your blog, Fly.
Ah hell John. I must issue you an apology for being a dick. I went back and looked at my charts in that article and I guess I got in a hurry and messed up my count for the FTD more than the one time you pointed out. Argggg..... Anyway, all the more reason for you to come over to my blog and bitch at me.
Well, my apologies for not knowing exactly how blogs work. I figured the blog owner posted any kind of charts on his blog. ie flyonwallst. I am not internet savvy, always learning. I didn't notice right away the Woodshedder signature on the IBD FT day article. Anyway I think it is appropriate to have warned anyone reading it on flyonWS in the messages that it contained inaccuracies. I would hate for a new person to IBD reading it to be turned off to the IBD method.
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