Tuesday, March 13, 2007
MVIS Conference Call
I just finished listening to the MVIS conference call-- and it went exactly as expected. Right now, MVIS is a concept stock. They have no real revenues to speak of-- just plans.
MVIS is like a biotech stock, with a billion dollar cancer drug in phase III trials. Furthermore, in order to solidify their distribution channels, they need to sign an agreement with a top cell phone manufacturer.
Everyone I know, who owns the stock, is clamoring for such a deal. Moreover, many people who are familiar with the MVIS story feel such a deal will offer an ideal exit price-- considering it will likely boost the share price.
I disagree. With my money, I view MVIS as a long term investment, with surreal return on investment possibilities. On the other hand, if they fail to act quickly, on establishing partnerships for the PicoP, and secure proper financing--the stock may become dead money.
In short, I am not betting the house on MVIS-- or any other stock for that matter. However, I do feel Microvision's share price offers exceptional value, taking into account the potential market for their products.
NOTE: The moderator on the MVIS conference call was a fucktarded asshat.
MVIS is like a biotech stock, with a billion dollar cancer drug in phase III trials. Furthermore, in order to solidify their distribution channels, they need to sign an agreement with a top cell phone manufacturer.
Everyone I know, who owns the stock, is clamoring for such a deal. Moreover, many people who are familiar with the MVIS story feel such a deal will offer an ideal exit price-- considering it will likely boost the share price.
I disagree. With my money, I view MVIS as a long term investment, with surreal return on investment possibilities. On the other hand, if they fail to act quickly, on establishing partnerships for the PicoP, and secure proper financing--the stock may become dead money.
In short, I am not betting the house on MVIS-- or any other stock for that matter. However, I do feel Microvision's share price offers exceptional value, taking into account the potential market for their products.
NOTE: The moderator on the MVIS conference call was a fucktarded asshat.
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Highlights of CC @ Microvision blog.
Nothing too exciting either way. No one should care about revs right now. Looks like Alex is getting aggressive on picoP technology. That should be the only reason to buy this stock, not earnings.
Nothing too exciting either way. No one should care about revs right now. Looks like Alex is getting aggressive on picoP technology. That should be the only reason to buy this stock, not earnings.
If MVIS pulls off every conceivable thing that they could pull off, the ideal of perfection on all deals, couldn't this stock in 2010-11 be like a $40-50 stock?
my math with many made up (though conservative) variables:
even if: double share count to 80 million
suppose they get:
1% of 1 billion 2006 global handset market = 10 mil. units X my made up margin of $10 per unit = 100 m revenue
source: http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P7992
3% of 60 million 2006 cars sold. = 1.8 mil HUD units X $10 imaginary margin = 18 mil revenue
So I have theorized a possible revenue stream in 2008 of 120 million. Even if expenses went up 50% to 45 million, and new tax rate, suppose they have net income of 55-60 million. / 80 million shares (a hypothetically doubled float). Thats .68-.75 eps. I don't know the multiple that would be assigned to such a stock but lets say 25. Thats a $17-18 stock in 2008. Am I an asshat, or if everything goes beautiful is this achievable?
my math with many made up (though conservative) variables:
even if: double share count to 80 million
suppose they get:
1% of 1 billion 2006 global handset market = 10 mil. units X my made up margin of $10 per unit = 100 m revenue
source: http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P7992
3% of 60 million 2006 cars sold. = 1.8 mil HUD units X $10 imaginary margin = 18 mil revenue
So I have theorized a possible revenue stream in 2008 of 120 million. Even if expenses went up 50% to 45 million, and new tax rate, suppose they have net income of 55-60 million. / 80 million shares (a hypothetically doubled float). Thats .68-.75 eps. I don't know the multiple that would be assigned to such a stock but lets say 25. Thats a $17-18 stock in 2008. Am I an asshat, or if everything goes beautiful is this achievable?
yeah the margin is crucial and yet the most speculative part of my equation. I don't know if this is a bad way to look at it, but since the company projects that carriers will add a $100 to a consumer phone model with the projector, that $10 could be for MVIS.
I also assume they will sell more handsets than I said, I just wanted to make estimates that in my mind are extra conservative. If anyone has any other advice or suggestions on how to value "potential," some ROIC analysis or voodoo, whatever, I'd like to know.
I also assume they will sell more handsets than I said, I just wanted to make estimates that in my mind are extra conservative. If anyone has any other advice or suggestions on how to value "potential," some ROIC analysis or voodoo, whatever, I'd like to know.
Ya know MMX you got a hard on the size of the QID return for the Mr. A, I surmise that the folks that promulgate the point that they are "beating the guy on the internets" returns leaves me to think that you are eating jamon con queso in your pajamees watching cnbc and pleasuring yourself to the hair helmet chick on CNBC. The deal is make some money have some fun and compete with your college buddies at the beer stop. This is the Chuckie Cheese of Trading...nothin more got it?
MMX, we're all sorry that you lost a ton of money trying to trade the market. You're a colossal failure in the market and you suck at life, but it happens to a lot of good people, you're not alone. Find a group of people to help you through - you need to get on with your life.
# posted by 
: 2:16 AM
: 2:16 AM
Anybody who thinks that the market is a level playing field and believes that little insider trading exsists needs to take a second look. Two examples would be AFFX and JBLU. I was wondering why those two stocks (among a handful of others) were holding up so well yesterday (especially JBLU when the other airlines were tanking). Well,surprise surprise they were upgraded this morning. This has happened so often that I daytrade stocks sometimes that are looking strange in their behavior relative to the entire market and more often than not I find out why the next day. The market overall is a plyground for the institiutions.
Daytraders might want to look for a long in SMH and other chips. They didn't get hit too bad yesterday look good on a relative basis pre-market.
Daytraders might want to look for a long in SMH and other chips. They didn't get hit too bad yesterday look good on a relative basis pre-market.
mdw..why do you say that..I made tons. I just make fun of yoru master idiot contraray idiot. I called the sell off minutes after he sold all his inverse ETFs the other day after the close. LOL
Daytraders should ignore my 8:34 AM buy on chips and look to short SMH. For whatever reason SMH sucks relative to the market.
broker a
have you watched GDP in the oil patch? looks like good value at this level, and has attracted some interest this am.
have you watched GDP in the oil patch? looks like good value at this level, and has attracted some interest this am.
Broker- I will have to start visiting Mdawsz site more regularly if you don't get your ass back here and make some posts. For fuck sakes, you've even let MMX leave a message on here for hours.
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