Sunday, March 25, 2007

 

Wings, Democracy and the Important Issue of Ducati

What the fuck is going on here? I leave this blog alone for 2 days, and I see a "trojan horse-like" hit piece on BWLD, global bear market jargon and nonsensical analysis of an oil trust. As you well know, this is unacceptable and the consequences for such "asshattery" are grave.

First, I will address my beloved BWLD.

No, their accounting is not aggressive. They have no debt and a piddly $65 million in the bank, which is yielding approximately $3.0 million in interest, per year. Just to compare, CMG has more than $150 million in cash. Trust me, having cash is one of those good problems. Furthermore, every analyst under the sun has baked in interest income-- into their EPS models. Therefore, it's a non-issue. However, I do anticipate the company will start paying a dividend, sometime soon.

Second, all this talk of "high flier" and "go-go stock" almost made my fucking head explode. Look, when analyzing any company, it is necessary to compare it to similar companies with comparable growth rates. To just copy and paste an industry wide average P/E, P/S or P/B ratio is pure, unadulterated, asshattery.

When sizing up BWLD, compare it to companies with great growth, such as CMG, TXRH, BJRI, PNRA and RRGB, not old staid companies like DRI, MCD or OSI. All of the high growth companies mentioned enjoy growth rates in excess of 25%, with an average FPE (Forward Price to Earnings ratio) of 29. BWLD's FPE is 28.98, not at all expensive. Also, BWLD has a growth rate of 32%, putting their PEG ratio under 1. Traditionally, PEG ratio's are good indicator's of value versus froth.

Moreover, it's worth noting, BWLD has 435 restaurants, with the majority (81) in the God forsaken state of Ohio.

Look, this company, as stated, will expand to over 1,000 restaurants, within the next two years. They are targeting California, Virginia and NYC as prime destinations. Furthermore, the company has been coining money, despite the fact that chicken wing prices have been fucking sky rocketing, thanks to the corn feed fuckers. I feel the estimates are too low and BWLD can easily beat them, effectively making their FPE even more attractive. Think multiple expansion.

So, any relief from the corn front-- and BWLD's margins will explode. Right now, chicken represents 24% of sales, while alcohol stands at 29%. As far as I am concerned, the "cult-like" popularity of BWLD will only increase, as they open up restaurants in the affluent area's of NYC and Los Angeles. Hence, I feel the stock price will appreciate, substantially, over the next two years or until saturation.

Finally, I want to touch on the important issue of Ducati. I mean, the man is an aristocrat and a gentleman. Some of you crudely told him to "fuck off," and all he had to say in reply was "jog on." How can anyone get mad at a guy like that? I would have fucking teed off on your heads, like the steroid abundant Homerun derby.

However, I will say, the TELOZ pitch almost made me send an internet laser beam, in order to "mushroom cloud" Mr. Ducati's website.

In closing, I am unsure whether to fire or keep this Ducati. Normally, I scoff at democracy, like Amazon jungle tribesmen. However, regarding "The Ducati," the internets shall seal his fate.

NOTE: Please take the new "Fly Survey." Should I fire Ducati?

UPDATE: Holy shit! "The Ducati" is out out to destroy me. He just did a hit piece on HANS. What's next, MVIS?

Comments:
Mr. Fly,

ooooooo!

I would like to know what is going on as well!!!

My take-away from this post is:

"fuck"
"trojan"
"oil"
"beloved"
"aggressive"
"fucking head explode"
"multiple"
"explode"
"touch"
"abundant"

I thank you for that. ;)
 
Indeed, you are a poet.
 
lmao...This post gets my vote as best ever, to date.
 
Blame, Blame rests on the one person that brought this Euro ex-pat Kiwi lover to the land of Flydom. Oh, I have so many feelings directed toward the weekend (guest) hosts. I will keep them to myself, they seem to be thin skinned and unable to apprieciate the vitriolic, mundane pedestian bull shit that has attracted me to this website. Raj, AKA Fly if you are going to run this website, RUN IT! Your pinch hitters suck.
 
Boomer--

Fuck you. I have better things to do on the weekends.
 
Keep him--he seems to have a take on these stocks. It might not be your take but still compelling. BWLD I guess I don't get it--there are 4 or 5 of them here in KC- They are OK and thats it.
I don't know dick about all of the #'s and expansion etc. All I can tell you is they are pretty Average here.
 
Beware the Ides of March!
 
Fly,

With regards to expansion, how many stores or what percentage are corporate and how many are franchised?
 
Actually, the forward PE is currently 23.69. Even better.
 
I think Ducati wrote a hit piece on ACLI too. Bitch is off another 5%.
 
Well, hey, "the Ducati situation" was fun though. Normally you'd have to hire viral marketing guys to create such controversy.

Also, it's kind of convenient to bring subversives right to the blog, where you emotionless objective traders can whack the heck out of 'em to your heart's content.
 
... there is a serious credibility issue with Ducati, however. He quotes latin on his blog page, thus insinuating old-money peerage suckup associations which more confident minds would avoid. If he does a hit piece on MVIS, it should be done entirely in latin in order to prove his intellectual independence and, at the same time, to spare the rest of us from needing to get worked up over it.
 
Kid--

70% franchise, 30% corporate.
 
MVIS is certainly holding up in light of the decline in the averages. Something in the air?
 
The OVTI short squeeze has resumed.

I finally pulled the trigger on MVIS. It's an unbelieveable bullish sign the stock can't go down on a horrible tape after they announced plans to sell of shit load of new stock. Now a buyer in size.
 
Maggot has seen the light.
 
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