Thursday, April 26, 2007
Fuck You Shorts, You're Dead
Today, "The Fly" aka "Senior Tropicana" (a sudden reference to "Senior Tropicana" means "The Fly" has seriously stepped up the level of banked coin) will rip the souls out of the sellers of NTRI, AAPL, VLO, MVIS and a variety of other stocks. The NTRI numbers are so good, I have reservations about taking some profits here.
Basically, I feel the company deserves a 35 multiple, considering how incredible their growth and momentum is. Should the company earn $3.45 cents (top of the guidance) and trade 35x, well then, the stock should trade at $120.75. It's called multiple expansion.
When RIMM had the lawsuit from NTP hanging over it, the street denied RIMM a rich multiple, due to risk. However, once the lawsuit was settled, the stock never looked back.
Wall Street will bid up any growth stock, providing the risk to the business cycle is limited.
NTRI does not have a rich multiple (19x eps)-- because investors had reservations over the sustainability of their growth. However, with this report and guidance, much of that fear will be put to bed. In addition, 40% of NTRI's shares are sold short.
Get ready for a short squeeze, bitch.
Finally, I am sick of everyone bitching about how "expensive" the market is. Do you idiots realize, the S&P, Nazz and DOW are only up 5% for the year?
With my money, I will probably buy more CENX, ahead of tonight's earnings-- and add to my MVIS position.
NOTE: I would like to publicly apologize to Steve Jobs' face ( not his real face, a picture), for throwing all those darts and small hand axes at it. It's worth noting, Mr. Jobs is a great business man and can probably kick the living shit out of Bill Gates, if properly motivated. "The Fly" loves AAPL, today.
Basically, I feel the company deserves a 35 multiple, considering how incredible their growth and momentum is. Should the company earn $3.45 cents (top of the guidance) and trade 35x, well then, the stock should trade at $120.75. It's called multiple expansion.
When RIMM had the lawsuit from NTP hanging over it, the street denied RIMM a rich multiple, due to risk. However, once the lawsuit was settled, the stock never looked back.
Wall Street will bid up any growth stock, providing the risk to the business cycle is limited.
NTRI does not have a rich multiple (19x eps)-- because investors had reservations over the sustainability of their growth. However, with this report and guidance, much of that fear will be put to bed. In addition, 40% of NTRI's shares are sold short.
Get ready for a short squeeze, bitch.
Finally, I am sick of everyone bitching about how "expensive" the market is. Do you idiots realize, the S&P, Nazz and DOW are only up 5% for the year?
With my money, I will probably buy more CENX, ahead of tonight's earnings-- and add to my MVIS position.
NOTE: I would like to publicly apologize to Steve Jobs' face ( not his real face, a picture), for throwing all those darts and small hand axes at it. It's worth noting, Mr. Jobs is a great business man and can probably kick the living shit out of Bill Gates, if properly motivated. "The Fly" loves AAPL, today.
Comments:
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I don't get it. NTRI - blow out numbers/strong guidance and peeps are fucking unloading the stock like they just busted. I understand taking profits, but WTF.
I want to discuss one thing on DivX here. DivX has partnered with Revision3 to deliver online content. I personally know the owner of Revision3 and everything the guy touches turns to gold (he's a hippie kid though) in the tech community and then spreads from there. Heres a hint, Digg.com. I want to buy even more DivX here and keep adding up to 22 into earnings. Its your choice, buy or don't I don't really give a fuck.
# posted by 
: 9:39 AM
: 9:39 AM
Gapping - you're in IT as I am. Do you know what kind of compression algorithms/Codecs WAN accelerators are using? Juniper DX, Riverbed Steelhead.
Wondering if DivX plans to form alliances and bundle the codecs in the boxes in the near future.
Wondering if DivX plans to form alliances and bundle the codecs in the boxes in the near future.
I really think the Ipod is showing slower growth and the earnings reflect cheaper costs for components which AAPL admits will not continue. I still think the IPhone is too expensive and will not help AAPL. I did short it in the AH and expect it to pull a GOOG post earnings-will probably get back to the mid90's today.
ive been long cenx for a while, but im beginning to believe the market about their earnings tonight.
Caddy, the Iphone is not overpriced, it will sell out in seconds. Mark my words - it will be sold out the first day.
On2 (ONT) is getting ready to explode......speaking of compression. I have pimped it here a couple of times....my brother works there.
All you growth addicts MUST take a look at VDSI. Unbelieveable quarter. I'm on the call now, and they're going to blow away estimates for next quarter and the full year. Estimates are going to get taken way up.
Hey Broker--nice job fucker where should we send money. I like pnra they really line up for that shit in midwest. Also thinking of DVIX which I know nothing about?
http://youtube.com/watch?v=QWJLWERyvkk
http://youtube.com/watch?v=QWJLWERyvkk
Broker what is going to turn MVIS around from this slow drip? I can't believe we are below where the contract was announced on Monday. My thoughts are the buyers are buying other things out there since the market has been straight up lately, especially the semis. I would like to buy more in the 4.20's but would hate to see it fall much further.
# posted by : 11:23 AM
: 11:23 AM
gapping- MVIS is still trading above its mean. Give it a chance. All stocks, even the highflyers return to their means before moving again.
I would look to buy at 4.25, if you want to add.
The drip has been low volume, and since everyone knows the news will be released in May, why buy in April?
I would look to buy at 4.25, if you want to add.
The drip has been low volume, and since everyone knows the news will be released in May, why buy in April?
Josh, I will politely answer for Broker here. Read the price targets from Briefing, read the numbers and guidance they released and read the short interest. Be patient and if you can't be patient then sell it here and move on. It will happen but you can't force it. By the way you have to shop around 500k blocks when your trying to cover, it takes time.
# posted by : 11:34 AM
: 11:34 AM
Wood, I agree I am just sniffing for news :) I have been buying here and up at 4.40 even. Hope to hear something by June myself. Its going to be a nightmare for the shorts since they continue to increase their positions on this pullback. I agree, very low volume and weak long shakeout.
# posted by : 11:36 AM
: 11:36 AM
Wood, why don't you start a Silver position at this level. SLV. In 2008, we will see $20 Silver. I added DIVX and more MVIS this morning as well as SLV.. ADGO.ob will hit 2.50 in May.
Gapping: Thanks for the response. I sold at the open but now I'm back in at $62. Considering selling again in order to buy CENX before the close. Hmm.
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