Friday, April 13, 2007
If I may be so bold....
Since The Fly did not give out an Ass Hat award this week, I am taking it upon myself to hand out that award. The award goes to..... Glenn The Fuckhead. Earlier in the week Glen said,
"Short BWLD. It is worthless. On the Fly's recommendation I took my golfing buddies to the shit hole in Myrtle Beach last week. We sit on hard chairs. Two hundred TV's are bombarding noise and what-not. We order Natchos to start, waitress brings this pile of lettuce and chips with a tiny bit of melted cheese. Then waitress brings these real ugly yellow wings and a bunch of paper plates. We ask for real plates, she says they don't have any, use the paper, dickweeds. My buddies are not impressed. We leave and go eat at a decent restaurant. Afterwards we all agree: BWLD is without a shadow of a doubt the best short on the board. Peter Lynch says buy what you know and like. I say sell what is disgusting and ugly. BWLD is digusting and ugly. Thanks Fly for finding me this great short. It's going down for the count."
You sat on hard chairs? It is not BWLD's fault your ass was extra sensitive to the chairs because you spent the afternoon getting your oil checked by your "golfing buddies". You are a pillow biting moron. Once you and your "golfing buddies" are done trollin for colon, I suggest you reverse your stupid BWLD short and go long.
I too recently went to BWLD, what a fucking place. Completely filled by people fresh from some amusement park, the place was hopping. I ate 12 wings, served to me in a wafer thin paper bowl by a technical school reject. These thing cost $7.99 and my beer was $4. I ordered another 12 wings to conduct an experiment. This was when the Fly's brilliance hit me and I realized BWLD is going to print $100. I scraped the meat of these little bones and got enough to make 2 McNuggets max. $4 a nugget? You think those fuckers at McDonalds wouldn't like to charge $24 for a 6 piece ? The margins at BWLD are so big they might as well be selling blow, pure genius. I must say, I do have one concern. I was just one person surrounded by double wide fat fuckers in one BWLD and I demolished 24 wings. Unless BWLD is growing 12 winged chickens at Three Mile Island, I just went through 12 chickens. Are there enough chickens to feed the obese nation their wings?
Any way, I was so thrilled with BWLD, I decided I would make it a Fly night and give his beloved Monster a try, big fucking mistake. I might as well have walked right into a 7-11 and said," Hey Habib, pour me a big gulp and drop a big grab bag of pop rocks in that fucker." Ten minutes after drinking that thing I blew my colon out my ass like the midget out of the cannon at the circus. Thanks to the fly I'm off to get scoped tomorrow, a small price to pay for coining massive cash.
Hey Fly, for doubting my ability to keep my job, I hope your bordeaux is sour and you choke on the gristle of your ol 96er. I hope you tards enjoy the footage I grabbed of The Fly at dinner tonight.
The Hole - video powered by Metacafe
"Short BWLD. It is worthless. On the Fly's recommendation I took my golfing buddies to the shit hole in Myrtle Beach last week. We sit on hard chairs. Two hundred TV's are bombarding noise and what-not. We order Natchos to start, waitress brings this pile of lettuce and chips with a tiny bit of melted cheese. Then waitress brings these real ugly yellow wings and a bunch of paper plates. We ask for real plates, she says they don't have any, use the paper, dickweeds. My buddies are not impressed. We leave and go eat at a decent restaurant. Afterwards we all agree: BWLD is without a shadow of a doubt the best short on the board. Peter Lynch says buy what you know and like. I say sell what is disgusting and ugly. BWLD is digusting and ugly. Thanks Fly for finding me this great short. It's going down for the count."
You sat on hard chairs? It is not BWLD's fault your ass was extra sensitive to the chairs because you spent the afternoon getting your oil checked by your "golfing buddies". You are a pillow biting moron. Once you and your "golfing buddies" are done trollin for colon, I suggest you reverse your stupid BWLD short and go long.
I too recently went to BWLD, what a fucking place. Completely filled by people fresh from some amusement park, the place was hopping. I ate 12 wings, served to me in a wafer thin paper bowl by a technical school reject. These thing cost $7.99 and my beer was $4. I ordered another 12 wings to conduct an experiment. This was when the Fly's brilliance hit me and I realized BWLD is going to print $100. I scraped the meat of these little bones and got enough to make 2 McNuggets max. $4 a nugget? You think those fuckers at McDonalds wouldn't like to charge $24 for a 6 piece ? The margins at BWLD are so big they might as well be selling blow, pure genius. I must say, I do have one concern. I was just one person surrounded by double wide fat fuckers in one BWLD and I demolished 24 wings. Unless BWLD is growing 12 winged chickens at Three Mile Island, I just went through 12 chickens. Are there enough chickens to feed the obese nation their wings?
Any way, I was so thrilled with BWLD, I decided I would make it a Fly night and give his beloved Monster a try, big fucking mistake. I might as well have walked right into a 7-11 and said," Hey Habib, pour me a big gulp and drop a big grab bag of pop rocks in that fucker." Ten minutes after drinking that thing I blew my colon out my ass like the midget out of the cannon at the circus. Thanks to the fly I'm off to get scoped tomorrow, a small price to pay for coining massive cash.
Hey Fly, for doubting my ability to keep my job, I hope your bordeaux is sour and you choke on the gristle of your ol 96er. I hope you tards enjoy the footage I grabbed of The Fly at dinner tonight.
The Hole - video powered by Metacafe
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This fucker is actually growing on me. If results for BWLD & HANS next week repeat as did your feature of MVIS...
Good stuff, looks like next week fly likes CENX, I know you cant do a dinner and wine deal with it but get creative...Ducati did.
HA! This is simply sublime, B Taco.
You are so hired. I think you just inspired me to triple down on buck wild (BWLD) on Monday. Fucking brilliant, B Tac.
You are so hired. I think you just inspired me to triple down on buck wild (BWLD) on Monday. Fucking brilliant, B Tac.
Despite your obvious disobedience and poor syntax, this is a brilliant post.
Bravo!
Off to eat some more grapes.
Bravo!
Off to eat some more grapes.
BT is a funny fucker! Even though I think BWLD is a taste for shit. And the whole experience is a cluster fuck- doesn't mean it won't print $100. I think the point was made here a couple of weeks ago- Don't bet against fat fuckers. I'll buy some BWLD and LTM. By the way what the fuck is Monster Soda? I'm so old it's sad.
Broker do you have a Q1 date for BWLD earnings? Can't find it anywhere. I think I remember the last earnings report was in February, oh yeah thats right thats the day I bought 900 shares of BWLD at 47 as it preceded to rip the fucking balls off of MDAWS and many other shorts.
# posted by 
: 11:02 AM
: 11:02 AM
The primary food product used by our company-owned and franchised restaurants is fresh chicken wings. We purchase fresh chicken wings based on current market prices that are subject to fluctuations. A material increase in fresh chicken wings costs may adversely affect our operating results. Fresh chicken wing prices in 2006 averaged 3% lower than 2005 as the average price per pound dropped to $1.17 in 2006 from $1.20 in 2005. If there is a significant rise in the price of fresh chicken wings, and we are unable to successfully adjust menu prices or menu mix or otherwise make operational adjustments to account for the higher wing prices, our operating results could be adversely affected. For example, fresh chicken wings accounted for approximately 24%, 27%, and 34% of our cost of sales in 2006, 2005, and 2004, respectively, with an annual average price per pound of $1.17, $1.20, and $1.39, respectively. A 10% increase in the fresh chicken wing costs for 2006 would have increased restaurant cost of sales by approximately $1.8 million.
If the avian flu were to affect our supply of chicken wings, our operations may be negatively impacted, as prices may rise due to limited supply.
Changes in public health concerns may affect consumer preferences for our products. For example, if incidents of the avian flu occur in the United States, consumer preferences for poultry products may be negatively impacted, resulting in a decline in demand for our products.
As of February 1, 2007, there were approximately 186 record holders of our Common Stock, excluding shareholders whose stock is held either in nominee name and/or street name brokerage accounts. Based on information which we have obtained from our transfer agent, there are approximately 17,000 holders of our Common Stock whose stock is held either in ominee name and/or street name brokerage accounts.
If the avian flu were to affect our supply of chicken wings, our operations may be negatively impacted, as prices may rise due to limited supply.
Changes in public health concerns may affect consumer preferences for our products. For example, if incidents of the avian flu occur in the United States, consumer preferences for poultry products may be negatively impacted, resulting in a decline in demand for our products.
As of February 1, 2007, there were approximately 186 record holders of our Common Stock, excluding shareholders whose stock is held either in nominee name and/or street name brokerage accounts. Based on information which we have obtained from our transfer agent, there are approximately 17,000 holders of our Common Stock whose stock is held either in ominee name and/or street name brokerage accounts.
I must be really bored to blow a Saturday like this...
I did 17 years in restaurant management (which is why to this day I will never buy a restaurant stock). After reading Taco's post I was reminded that back then if you could net 8% before taxes and debt service you were doing very well compared to peers. (I used to always wonder why the owners bothered when they could have pulled 12% in an index fund...)
Took a look at BWLD and lo and behold in 2006 they did, guess.... 8.5% before taxes. Prior they sucked at 6.8% in '05, 6.6 in '04 and 4.6 in '03.
Food cost is running at a whopping 30%, so no joke they have to serve food on paper plates.
And, what the heck, there are about 8 wing pieces to a pound, and at a cost of $1.20 per lb, BWLD is paying $1.80 to serve up a 12 piece, or about 22% cost.
Bottom line, the only "fad" restaurant chain I can think of that has made bank is SBUX...
Oh, and BWLD is run by a slew of chicks!!?? (sorry girls)
Could be the only thing hot about BWLD is the sauce...
Oh, and my doctor friends are all being prepped by the Center for Disease Control on what to do WHEN avian flu hits. They also know that there is not enough vaccine to go around, and even if there were the virus will have mutated to render the vaccine worthless.
Scary shit... short BWLD.
I did 17 years in restaurant management (which is why to this day I will never buy a restaurant stock). After reading Taco's post I was reminded that back then if you could net 8% before taxes and debt service you were doing very well compared to peers. (I used to always wonder why the owners bothered when they could have pulled 12% in an index fund...)
Took a look at BWLD and lo and behold in 2006 they did, guess.... 8.5% before taxes. Prior they sucked at 6.8% in '05, 6.6 in '04 and 4.6 in '03.
Food cost is running at a whopping 30%, so no joke they have to serve food on paper plates.
And, what the heck, there are about 8 wing pieces to a pound, and at a cost of $1.20 per lb, BWLD is paying $1.80 to serve up a 12 piece, or about 22% cost.
Bottom line, the only "fad" restaurant chain I can think of that has made bank is SBUX...
Oh, and BWLD is run by a slew of chicks!!?? (sorry girls)
Could be the only thing hot about BWLD is the sauce...
Oh, and my doctor friends are all being prepped by the Center for Disease Control on what to do WHEN avian flu hits. They also know that there is not enough vaccine to go around, and even if there were the virus will have mutated to render the vaccine worthless.
Scary shit... short BWLD.
Tutor--
Corn prices is what is causing the price of chicken wings to go up.
It is my belief, corn will tank and BWLD's margins will expand.
Also, they are about to hit the NYC and LA area's with multiple new store openings.
BWLD may be a short, in three years. However, while they are in expansion mode, coupled with the fact that they have delivered great numbers, despite high food expenses-- you have to be fucking nuts to not understand this stock is going higher.
I will gladly take your money, bearfucker.
Corn prices is what is causing the price of chicken wings to go up.
It is my belief, corn will tank and BWLD's margins will expand.
Also, they are about to hit the NYC and LA area's with multiple new store openings.
BWLD may be a short, in three years. However, while they are in expansion mode, coupled with the fact that they have delivered great numbers, despite high food expenses-- you have to be fucking nuts to not understand this stock is going higher.
I will gladly take your money, bearfucker.
Tutor, no one knows when the next flu pandemic hits whether it will be avian or not. Part of my job is to analyze risk associated with a flu pandemic, and I can say with certainty that you are operating with only enough information to make you dangerous.
I've followed this blog enough to know you fuckers don't like contrarian opinion so the remarks were expected. In the end the price of the stock will tell the story one way or the other.
This is what makes a market...
Cheers
Shedder: I've seen the reports, and yes, they are dangerous. Of course you know to consider all the facts when position trading. Nobody likes the 30% gap down at the open... that is unless you're short.
This is what makes a market...
Cheers
Shedder: I've seen the reports, and yes, they are dangerous. Of course you know to consider all the facts when position trading. Nobody likes the 30% gap down at the open... that is unless you're short.
Broker, if you read BWLD's 10K you'll see that wing prices have been in decline, down 3% in 2006, so I don't buy the corn arguement... goatfucker
Wrong again Tutor!
You are starting to sound like Ducati.
Chicken wing prices have been on fucking fire recently.
Go check it out.
Aside from the goatfucker remark, I like the modesty of Tutor.
Too bad I will sack his bank account, while skinning him alive, when BWLD prints a hundo.
Off to do fun stuff.
You are starting to sound like Ducati.
Chicken wing prices have been on fucking fire recently.
Go check it out.
Aside from the goatfucker remark, I like the modesty of Tutor.
Too bad I will sack his bank account, while skinning him alive, when BWLD prints a hundo.
Off to do fun stuff.
I thought Taco was supposed to be posting over the weekend. Its 6:30 p.m. EDT and nothing.
Hello Taco?
Hello Taco?
# posted by : 6:26 PM
: 6:26 PM
may be he is not done with his lettuce picking duties.
Ola, senior broker a, may be I can get a job with you. You can pay me 2 cans of refried beans and a head of lettuce
senior chimichanga
Ola, senior broker a, may be I can get a job with you. You can pay me 2 cans of refried beans and a head of lettuce
senior chimichanga
Tutor, let me repeat that there is no expert opinion that definitely identifies avian flu as the next pandemic strain. It could just as quickly and dangerously be current non-avian strains that mutate.
However, my point was simply in reference to flu, not BWLD. Since you want to tie it back in to BWLD, consider this.
Flu, Avian Flu, etc. follows very well-defined patterns of transmission. Because we are in middle April, the chance of a flu outbreak is nil. Now if it were early Jan., I would agree there would still be some risk. So my point is do you want to be short BWLD over the next 8 months waiting for flu season to come back around? Furthermore, your whole premise seems to rely on two factors: difficult margins and possible flu pandemic. Since the flu pandemic option is neglible, you are left thinking about margins. The fact of the matter is that farmers are coming out of the woodwork to grow corn. Corn prices will fall. The fundamentals just do not support your assertions.
Finally, what happens when BWLD brings hundreds of new restaurants to the market?
Full disclosure- I have no position in BWLD.
However, my point was simply in reference to flu, not BWLD. Since you want to tie it back in to BWLD, consider this.
Flu, Avian Flu, etc. follows very well-defined patterns of transmission. Because we are in middle April, the chance of a flu outbreak is nil. Now if it were early Jan., I would agree there would still be some risk. So my point is do you want to be short BWLD over the next 8 months waiting for flu season to come back around? Furthermore, your whole premise seems to rely on two factors: difficult margins and possible flu pandemic. Since the flu pandemic option is neglible, you are left thinking about margins. The fact of the matter is that farmers are coming out of the woodwork to grow corn. Corn prices will fall. The fundamentals just do not support your assertions.
Finally, what happens when BWLD brings hundreds of new restaurants to the market?
Full disclosure- I have no position in BWLD.
At the risk of sounding iterating (from Jog Ons comments re: BFWLD) I have eaten at several BFWLDs in different cities (but none in the last two years or so). It was fair in Charlotte, great in Charlottesville, good in Hilton Head area and okay somwhere in Georgia. The wings were inconsistent and overpriced for what you received. The quality of the big screen TVs were pre-plasma and decorated in college Rathskeller. The menus were good but the wings tasted different in terms of quality from one city to the next. There is plenty of competition heating up (no pun intended) from Zaxbys,local sports bars, etc. However , the bottom line is that so long as the price of the stock is going up buy it and short it once it goes down (if the stock is available). Just don't fall in love with the stock. Remember Krispy Kreme,Boston Markets,etc.
Same store sales have been trending higher each quarter of the past year. That's the kind of execution that roasts short sellers. In the February quarter, company owned same store sales were up a stellar 13% - the best in the past year.
Because SSS have been so good, the comps become harder, especially in the second half. Will 20% unit growth satisfy investors when SSS growth increases at slower rates?
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Because SSS have been so good, the comps become harder, especially in the second half. Will 20% unit growth satisfy investors when SSS growth increases at slower rates?
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