Thursday, May 24, 2007
Sector Spotlight: Retail
According to many fucktards, the consumer is dead. Her house is worthless, her job is meaningless and her credit cards are maxed out. However, by some miracle, she keeps fucking buying stuff from GYMB, BWS, TGT, ANF, PLCE, ANN, MW, ARO, JWN, JCG, ZUMZ, CROX and RL.
My point: betting against the U.S. consumer is always a bad idea. Generally, Americans are fucking nuts and will produce counterfeit money, when the real stuff runs out, in order to buy the latest fashionable attire.
Also, it's worth noting, I saw 6 people in my local CWTR, last night. As usual, the bitches were fat and probably reside from some mountainous region of NYC (I am aware NYC has no mountains).
As for my positions:
I am hearing there is a lot of institutional interest for MVIS shares. The numbers are very big and can only be fulfilled via stock offering. However, my sources tell me there are no immediate plans to issue new shares, in order to raise capital. I suspect, whoever the company partners with to produce embedded or accessory Picop products will take an equity stake in MVIS-- and absorb much of the manufacturing costs. Hopefully, Tokman and Co. will give us something, soon.
MCHX is punching the cocks off of the short sellers, making them officially "cockless."
And, NTRI and CORS shorts are next up, to have their eyebrows punched off.
In short, I feel loading up on HANS, CORS, NTRI, RS and MVIS makes a lot of sense now-- and will likely inflate "The Fly's" brokerage account with unneeded, but much appreciated, coin.
My point: betting against the U.S. consumer is always a bad idea. Generally, Americans are fucking nuts and will produce counterfeit money, when the real stuff runs out, in order to buy the latest fashionable attire.
Also, it's worth noting, I saw 6 people in my local CWTR, last night. As usual, the bitches were fat and probably reside from some mountainous region of NYC (I am aware NYC has no mountains).
As for my positions:
I am hearing there is a lot of institutional interest for MVIS shares. The numbers are very big and can only be fulfilled via stock offering. However, my sources tell me there are no immediate plans to issue new shares, in order to raise capital. I suspect, whoever the company partners with to produce embedded or accessory Picop products will take an equity stake in MVIS-- and absorb much of the manufacturing costs. Hopefully, Tokman and Co. will give us something, soon.
MCHX is punching the cocks off of the short sellers, making them officially "cockless."
And, NTRI and CORS shorts are next up, to have their eyebrows punched off.
In short, I feel loading up on HANS, CORS, NTRI, RS and MVIS makes a lot of sense now-- and will likely inflate "The Fly's" brokerage account with unneeded, but much appreciated, coin.
Comments:
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Good morning my fellow tootsie roll dicks. Here's a quick list of contenders for the brownest, smallest tootsie roll dick:
1. danny
2. mdawsz
3. kc equitytrader
1. danny
2. mdawsz
3. kc equitytrader
I asked my fiancee what she thought of Coldwater Creek last night.
She said "frocks for frumps" without a moment of hesitation.
Bearded mountain women will have your head for shorting this stock.
She said "frocks for frumps" without a moment of hesitation.
Bearded mountain women will have your head for shorting this stock.
broker, speaking of MVIS, how do you think this need to raise capital with either a partner or other will affect the stock price.
Broker A:
You're saying that MVIS is going to dilute again? Oh man, we're already at 66 million shares, fully diluted. What's gonna be left for the average joe investor if they keep diluting at this rate? Seriously, why would they need to do this just to "help" out some institutional investor? Why can't they buy their shares on the open market just like the rest of us. I really hope you're wrong about this one. Thanks for all your work on this stock. I've been long for some 5 years now.
You're saying that MVIS is going to dilute again? Oh man, we're already at 66 million shares, fully diluted. What's gonna be left for the average joe investor if they keep diluting at this rate? Seriously, why would they need to do this just to "help" out some institutional investor? Why can't they buy their shares on the open market just like the rest of us. I really hope you're wrong about this one. Thanks for all your work on this stock. I've been long for some 5 years now.
wrong.
if they get their much-hoped 1 contract 600mm revenue stream, let's hypothetically say that net profit margin is 25%. Listening to their last CC, tokman quipped "I'm from GE, we don't even consider a project with cont margins less than 40%," so my estimate is fair.
600mm X .25 = 150 mm NI
even if they 2x the share count to 120 million, you're still sitting on $1.25 EPS. Give that a CSCO f/multiple of 17 and you got a $21.25 stock, or better yet, a CRM f/multiple of 161 and you get a $201.25 stock.
if they get their much-hoped 1 contract 600mm revenue stream, let's hypothetically say that net profit margin is 25%. Listening to their last CC, tokman quipped "I'm from GE, we don't even consider a project with cont margins less than 40%," so my estimate is fair.
600mm X .25 = 150 mm NI
even if they 2x the share count to 120 million, you're still sitting on $1.25 EPS. Give that a CSCO f/multiple of 17 and you got a $21.25 stock, or better yet, a CRM f/multiple of 161 and you get a $201.25 stock.
Sure Danny, but they can get that contract without diluting any further. They have enough cash for at least 12 more months, and they'll have about $34 Million from the warrant conversion. Why dilute if you don't have to?
Buying MVIS. No stop this time, just going to ride it out.
It is funny how whenever I touch that stock it goes down. It is like that "Suck my NASDAQ" dude.
It is funny how whenever I touch that stock it goes down. It is like that "Suck my NASDAQ" dude.
I agree with "why dilute if you have to." But in this case, fly has outlined a reason why they might "have to"
"The numbers are very big and can only be fulfilled via stock offering. "
I maintain that in three years, this dilution, if it comes, will be a non-event.
"The numbers are very big and can only be fulfilled via stock offering. "
I maintain that in three years, this dilution, if it comes, will be a non-event.
^I am the all-time leader in comment box typos. Proudly, might I say.
supposed to be "why dilute if you don't have to"
supposed to be "why dilute if you don't have to"
Let me clarify:
One way or another, the company will need a cash infusion.
Best case scenario is the company issues shares to a big cell phone maker, like MOT.
Basically, allowing another company make an equity investment in MVIS.
While it's true, if a fund wants to own a stock, it usually can just buy it in the open market.
However, in stocks like MVIS, which are fairly illiquid, a fund will have a difficult time accumulating shares, without running the stock up.
The last thing these fuckers want to do is run the stock up, so that some asshole benefits and sells it to them.
Typically, big positions are acquired via offerings or cross trades.
As far as I know, there are no willing institutional sellers out there.
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One way or another, the company will need a cash infusion.
Best case scenario is the company issues shares to a big cell phone maker, like MOT.
Basically, allowing another company make an equity investment in MVIS.
While it's true, if a fund wants to own a stock, it usually can just buy it in the open market.
However, in stocks like MVIS, which are fairly illiquid, a fund will have a difficult time accumulating shares, without running the stock up.
The last thing these fuckers want to do is run the stock up, so that some asshole benefits and sells it to them.
Typically, big positions are acquired via offerings or cross trades.
As far as I know, there are no willing institutional sellers out there.
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