Saturday, June 16, 2007
The bankable trend of skateboarding
So, how do you pick a “Fly-style” winner?
The easiest way is to have an edge. If two of your cousins live in Omaha, and work at LNN, they could probably provide you with a more in-depth context of the industry and the challenges it faces than a simple SEC filing on LNN might reveal. I am not talking about inside info, just better context to make decisions going forward. As we established in the previous discussion, it is the background trend that really drives a stock's price over time.
Many of you know that I skate, but it is a little more than that. I used to film pro skaters for their videos as a job. Here's a sampling of stuff I filmed and edited and threw up on the 'tube for fun.
That was a good fucking time, let me tell you--I traveled the world for free, and met many cool people. If you don’t like me now, try this on for size: I was paid, at 17, to take a 4 week trip to Melbourne so I could film one of the best teams in skateboarding for this video. Some of the guys didn’t arrive so I ended up with a 2-bedroom suite at the Marriott. I got per diem, a fat check, and the experience of a lifetime. That doesn't include the Americas, Canada, Spain, or Europe trips. When was the last time someone paid you to gallivant? Anyway, I am in “the industry.” I talk to pros, shop owners, and skaters and am therefore up-to-date on the goings-on.
Skateboarding is blowing the fuck up, and it is not the same beast it once was. What does this mean? Look around you--have you noticed more of them? I sure have. Shit, you are probably the ones annoyed by the skaters, you stodgy middle-aged raccoons. Skateboarding is getting more popular.
How popular? Well, according a survey published in 2004 by boardtrac, skating was growing at 20% a year, and had annual revenues of 5.2 billion. There were 12.5 million participants, 85% of which were men.
I engaged in a little email back-and-forth with a guy I know who owns two shops in SD and another guy who the photographer/editor of a major skate magazine, and they both agreed that this growth rate was accurate.
A lot can change in a few years, though. Companies who were struggling 3-4 years ago and are now coming back. The companies now are MUCH stronger financially than the companies of 2004, when that article was written.
It’s funny how sometimes the times can affect a subset so far removed from “mainstream” life. When AOL merged with TW, TW owned a skate mag, Transworld. The 100-page mag exploded to over 350 pages by 2000!! The mag was back to 100 pages by 2002-3. Who would have figured a skate magazine would encapsulate the excesses of the time so perfectly. Most of the new pages were fucking gay sketchers ads anyways. Right now, skating is in a stronger expansionary phase that the industry has ever seen. I know non-skaters who insist buying certain skate shirts and jeans--you know how CA leads the nation in trends.
Regarding tradable industries, I bet Fly wishes he could trade the MLB. Well, skating is growing a lot faster than base-a-ball, and thankfully for decision-making's sake, has only two publicly traded proxies. The growth of the sport is limitless: no mountain lift tickets, no waves, no field, no team, no coach--no rules. Man, that already sounds like an ad campaign. You can skate whenever, wherever, and I think the growth is in front of us, not behind us. By the beard of Zeus, you know something's up when you have amateurs driving around in CL500s.
So, what is the stock already, fuckstick?
I hope that I have done a satisfactory job of establishing myself as an authority on sentiment within the skate industry. This leads me to my pick: Volcom Clothing (VLCM).
Shares are not at an "ideal" buy point (~42) but it is still somewhat cheap. VLCM is currently trading at 22.5x 2008 earnings, and have a five-year growth rate of 28%. It does, however, remind me of the buffalo I stared in the face with 32x f/pe, and a growth rate of 30%. The pps of 55 seemed reasonably valued (except to ducati)...until the stock bumped 90 a few months later. I do not expect VLCM to rocket up, but it was just added to the S&P 600 on Friday, and it has a long way to run over the next few years. It just finished the transition of selling directly to Europe, versus licensing their logo to manufacturers. This change, accretive in 2H07 (now), should accelerate earnings into Christmas and next year, IMO, above estimates.
The balance sheet is beautiful, they have 50% gross margins, and countless other blahblahblahs, but most importantly, I have a real edge with this stock. I know much more than Wall St. does about this brand and I can tell you it's strong and there is much loyalty/retention with the name. I absolutely and for sure know things about this company that not even a hot-iron scouring over a 10-k will reveal. The loyalty among employees, their rep in the skate industry, how they participate and foster the industry—none of that is in there, and I think they are really creating a lasting franchise with substantial value.
Much in the way Fly is our resident MVIS authority, I feel like I am the VLCM authority. Certainly so on the sentiment end, which for a clothing company can be a direct indicator of future sales. They have a premiere team of some of the best pro skaters, like the gods--why is this important? Simple, kids emulate the pros and support the companies they like the most.
This is a long article, sorry, I am just trying to cover all the bases. Have a scotch, and join me back in five.
Nice.
Anyway, the fucking kids.
As skating becomes more accepted by the mainstream, more kids will do it, but there will also be droves that skate with less enthusiasm than a hardcore skater does. If I were to be a strict-constructionist, I would say “unless you dream about skating all day, knowing how to ollie doesn’t cut it.” The sport is attracting huge numbers of casual users, but not necessarily life long skateboarders. This “less than hardcore” consumer is more likely to enjoy the look of skateboarding than the act itself, and that leads to increased shoe and clothing sales--the two areas that VLCM deals in. Additionally, they are much more apt to go to the mall, because that is where they go for clothes anyway, and that is where their parents take them. That's coincidentally where VLCM does the most of it's business. It is opening stores and working to difversify itself better of it's one large customer, PSUN (25% of revenues).
VLCM has long been misunderstood by Wall St. and they price it as if it is a fickle retailer, which, like CWTR, could at any moment turn from ‘OK’ to “hideous” to “god-knows-where” and back again. They do not treat it as a proxy to a hugely growing sport, and a whole demographic of people. By the time they do, I will be sitting on several bags (My cost basis is $23.xx)
Despite the seeming clash of “core” and “mall,” VLCM has pulled it off masterfully. Part of the reason is they don’t consider accounts with smaller stores, which limits the chance of excess clothes lying around and getting stale. Even though they don’t hold accounts with smaller stores, they support the industry so thoroughly with contests and ads, you cannot help but like them, even if you are a "core skater." VLCM has purposefully limited expanding its distribution to avoid becoming a blown-out, shite clothing company. That is why they sell their wares in some--but not all--JWNs--scarcity increases desirability.
The clothing and shoe companies right now are printing fucking cash. Some pros now, due to the successes lately, have begun to start up companies. Krew is a popular clothing company owned by Jim Greco, a pro. Now, his boss, Andrew Reynolds, who owns Baker skateboards (also very successful), starts up a clothing company which is almost identical, Altamont, and it too is successful. You don't have every pro going out there and forming some company and milking it, but the superstars know the potential and I think they are right on. Niche clothing styles are popular, and the growth of the industry and sport are great environmental backdrops for VLCM, for the next 3-5 years. They are well managed and their brand is strong. This is precisely the strong macro trend that coupled with strong fundamentals makes for a winning stock.
This article is long as fuck, but I hope I adequately explained the forces and drivers of this secular trend. Of course, there are both stupid people AND stupid questions, and I suspect the former will be asking much of the latter. Interestingly though, I will field all questions in case I have left something out and you have a thought. For more color on VLCM, read an old post here
The easiest way is to have an edge. If two of your cousins live in Omaha, and work at LNN, they could probably provide you with a more in-depth context of the industry and the challenges it faces than a simple SEC filing on LNN might reveal. I am not talking about inside info, just better context to make decisions going forward. As we established in the previous discussion, it is the background trend that really drives a stock's price over time.
Many of you know that I skate, but it is a little more than that. I used to film pro skaters for their videos as a job. Here's a sampling of stuff I filmed and edited and threw up on the 'tube for fun.
That was a good fucking time, let me tell you--I traveled the world for free, and met many cool people. If you don’t like me now, try this on for size: I was paid, at 17, to take a 4 week trip to Melbourne so I could film one of the best teams in skateboarding for this video. Some of the guys didn’t arrive so I ended up with a 2-bedroom suite at the Marriott. I got per diem, a fat check, and the experience of a lifetime. That doesn't include the Americas, Canada, Spain, or Europe trips. When was the last time someone paid you to gallivant? Anyway, I am in “the industry.” I talk to pros, shop owners, and skaters and am therefore up-to-date on the goings-on.
Skateboarding is blowing the fuck up, and it is not the same beast it once was. What does this mean? Look around you--have you noticed more of them? I sure have. Shit, you are probably the ones annoyed by the skaters, you stodgy middle-aged raccoons. Skateboarding is getting more popular.
How popular? Well, according a survey published in 2004 by boardtrac, skating was growing at 20% a year, and had annual revenues of 5.2 billion. There were 12.5 million participants, 85% of which were men.
I engaged in a little email back-and-forth with a guy I know who owns two shops in SD and another guy who the photographer/editor of a major skate magazine, and they both agreed that this growth rate was accurate.
A lot can change in a few years, though. Companies who were struggling 3-4 years ago and are now coming back. The companies now are MUCH stronger financially than the companies of 2004, when that article was written.
It’s funny how sometimes the times can affect a subset so far removed from “mainstream” life. When AOL merged with TW, TW owned a skate mag, Transworld. The 100-page mag exploded to over 350 pages by 2000!! The mag was back to 100 pages by 2002-3. Who would have figured a skate magazine would encapsulate the excesses of the time so perfectly. Most of the new pages were fucking gay sketchers ads anyways. Right now, skating is in a stronger expansionary phase that the industry has ever seen. I know non-skaters who insist buying certain skate shirts and jeans--you know how CA leads the nation in trends.
Regarding tradable industries, I bet Fly wishes he could trade the MLB. Well, skating is growing a lot faster than base-a-ball, and thankfully for decision-making's sake, has only two publicly traded proxies. The growth of the sport is limitless: no mountain lift tickets, no waves, no field, no team, no coach--no rules. Man, that already sounds like an ad campaign. You can skate whenever, wherever, and I think the growth is in front of us, not behind us. By the beard of Zeus, you know something's up when you have amateurs driving around in CL500s.
So, what is the stock already, fuckstick?
I hope that I have done a satisfactory job of establishing myself as an authority on sentiment within the skate industry. This leads me to my pick: Volcom Clothing (VLCM).
Shares are not at an "ideal" buy point (~42) but it is still somewhat cheap. VLCM is currently trading at 22.5x 2008 earnings, and have a five-year growth rate of 28%. It does, however, remind me of the buffalo I stared in the face with 32x f/pe, and a growth rate of 30%. The pps of 55 seemed reasonably valued (except to ducati)...until the stock bumped 90 a few months later. I do not expect VLCM to rocket up, but it was just added to the S&P 600 on Friday, and it has a long way to run over the next few years. It just finished the transition of selling directly to Europe, versus licensing their logo to manufacturers. This change, accretive in 2H07 (now), should accelerate earnings into Christmas and next year, IMO, above estimates.
The balance sheet is beautiful, they have 50% gross margins, and countless other blahblahblahs, but most importantly, I have a real edge with this stock. I know much more than Wall St. does about this brand and I can tell you it's strong and there is much loyalty/retention with the name. I absolutely and for sure know things about this company that not even a hot-iron scouring over a 10-k will reveal. The loyalty among employees, their rep in the skate industry, how they participate and foster the industry—none of that is in there, and I think they are really creating a lasting franchise with substantial value.
Much in the way Fly is our resident MVIS authority, I feel like I am the VLCM authority. Certainly so on the sentiment end, which for a clothing company can be a direct indicator of future sales. They have a premiere team of some of the best pro skaters, like the gods--why is this important? Simple, kids emulate the pros and support the companies they like the most.
This is a long article, sorry, I am just trying to cover all the bases. Have a scotch, and join me back in five.
Nice.
Anyway, the fucking kids.
As skating becomes more accepted by the mainstream, more kids will do it, but there will also be droves that skate with less enthusiasm than a hardcore skater does. If I were to be a strict-constructionist, I would say “unless you dream about skating all day, knowing how to ollie doesn’t cut it.” The sport is attracting huge numbers of casual users, but not necessarily life long skateboarders. This “less than hardcore” consumer is more likely to enjoy the look of skateboarding than the act itself, and that leads to increased shoe and clothing sales--the two areas that VLCM deals in. Additionally, they are much more apt to go to the mall, because that is where they go for clothes anyway, and that is where their parents take them. That's coincidentally where VLCM does the most of it's business. It is opening stores and working to difversify itself better of it's one large customer, PSUN (25% of revenues).
VLCM has long been misunderstood by Wall St. and they price it as if it is a fickle retailer, which, like CWTR, could at any moment turn from ‘OK’ to “hideous” to “god-knows-where” and back again. They do not treat it as a proxy to a hugely growing sport, and a whole demographic of people. By the time they do, I will be sitting on several bags (My cost basis is $23.xx)
Despite the seeming clash of “core” and “mall,” VLCM has pulled it off masterfully. Part of the reason is they don’t consider accounts with smaller stores, which limits the chance of excess clothes lying around and getting stale. Even though they don’t hold accounts with smaller stores, they support the industry so thoroughly with contests and ads, you cannot help but like them, even if you are a "core skater." VLCM has purposefully limited expanding its distribution to avoid becoming a blown-out, shite clothing company. That is why they sell their wares in some--but not all--JWNs--scarcity increases desirability.
The clothing and shoe companies right now are printing fucking cash. Some pros now, due to the successes lately, have begun to start up companies. Krew is a popular clothing company owned by Jim Greco, a pro. Now, his boss, Andrew Reynolds, who owns Baker skateboards (also very successful), starts up a clothing company which is almost identical, Altamont, and it too is successful. You don't have every pro going out there and forming some company and milking it, but the superstars know the potential and I think they are right on. Niche clothing styles are popular, and the growth of the industry and sport are great environmental backdrops for VLCM, for the next 3-5 years. They are well managed and their brand is strong. This is precisely the strong macro trend that coupled with strong fundamentals makes for a winning stock.
This article is long as fuck, but I hope I adequately explained the forces and drivers of this secular trend. Of course, there are both stupid people AND stupid questions, and I suspect the former will be asking much of the latter. Interestingly though, I will field all questions in case I have left something out and you have a thought. For more color on VLCM, read an old post here
Comments:
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Well, I guess I am the first one to finish reading this article.
So is there any catalyst you see in the future such as a blow-out earnings report (think Amazon last quarter) or new product (Monster Java) that you expect will rocket this stock. Or do you think this stock will just gradually grow over the next couple years.
So is there any catalyst you see in the future such as a blow-out earnings report (think Amazon last quarter) or new product (Monster Java) that you expect will rocket this stock. Or do you think this stock will just gradually grow over the next couple years.
Yeah, you are probably the only one to have finished it. I mostly just expect it to grow gradually, but like BWLD, it may just take one blowout earnings to get people all psyched on the stock.
Another catalyst is they have been taking write-downs the last few quarters bc of europe. They had to establish a new headquarters, hire a new CFO for the region, and they spent a lot on fancy racks to hang their clothes on.
Mgt has been very clear about how europe is going and it is coming along nicely.
Possibly over summer the shares will trade all whacky, but q3, their big one, with EU being done by then, oughta to be big. I don't think the analysts will correctly convert the current licensing fees to straight sales, which may result in an upside surprise.
Other than that, it's just a good secular trend a la GME. Who can say when and why GME rises/falls, day to day. But over years, the reason is clear. That's like vlcm. Two years from now, it will be no mystery why it's up, I'm just telling you why now.
I would try and initiate a position in the low 40s first. Granted, if you really are planning on investing in the co. for 5 years, 41 vs 46 is near negligible, but I know most people want a quick win. Lemme put it this way: 12 months from today, I think VLCM prints 65. If 40% is no good, stay out.
Another catalyst is they have been taking write-downs the last few quarters bc of europe. They had to establish a new headquarters, hire a new CFO for the region, and they spent a lot on fancy racks to hang their clothes on.
Mgt has been very clear about how europe is going and it is coming along nicely.
Possibly over summer the shares will trade all whacky, but q3, their big one, with EU being done by then, oughta to be big. I don't think the analysts will correctly convert the current licensing fees to straight sales, which may result in an upside surprise.
Other than that, it's just a good secular trend a la GME. Who can say when and why GME rises/falls, day to day. But over years, the reason is clear. That's like vlcm. Two years from now, it will be no mystery why it's up, I'm just telling you why now.
I would try and initiate a position in the low 40s first. Granted, if you really are planning on investing in the co. for 5 years, 41 vs 46 is near negligible, but I know most people want a quick win. Lemme put it this way: 12 months from today, I think VLCM prints 65. If 40% is no good, stay out.
Thanks Danny, I usually steer clear of clothing outlets (not my forte) but I will add VLCM to my watch list, and consider it once MVIS boosts my margin a bit.
nice stuff. Bit disappointed that there was no skate shoes. any idea if they will jump into sneaker market?
i think it's coming. There has big a big push for collaborations recently, which is unprecedented. Skate deck companies teaming up with shoes and both advertising on the shoe. I think VLCM could enter this market. From what the pro's tell me, the shoe checks are the highest, so I suspect they have the best margins. They have long been the "bread and butter"
Currently short at $30 and will short more on any surge. I'm hearing from a friend this is a great short and should print 20 if the retail stocks and overall market tank. Good luck with this pos company with risky accounting metrics.
Good analysis, Danny. To what do you attribute the high (16%) and increasing short interest? Is it just a function of the big run in share price? On the surface it looks great- nice b/s, nice rev and eps growth. The P/E ratio looks a little rich but is totally in line with projected growth.
Short at $30, dogmass? You've been poleaxed. I have a friend who was short GOOG at $100 for what it's worth.
dogmassc mushroom clouded himself on VLCM. Good luck on your average up trade idiot.
Danny, nice article.
Danny, nice article.
Very nice uptrend this last 6 months. I am guessing some "old school" guys are shorting VLCM. Probably the same guys who shorted CROX. What a bunch of morons. Last Friday's 2 million volume was very high with only an average of 250,000 daily shares volume. I am suprised that VLCM is a very fundamentally sound company. That goodness it is on the NASDAQ and not the crooked NYSE.
Please, no putdowns guys. I am comfortable with my position and have the cash to back it. Trust me, it will fall eventually and I will bank coin.
Danny, great "buy what you know" story. It is such a coincidence that we have both worked in the "Actions Sports" industry as image makers. I go all the way back to Jimmy'z and helped worked on the first Rollerblades campaign if you can believe that. I am fuckin' oldschool! My next galavant is to Texas this month to shoot Ladainian Tomlinson for a billboard that will be hanging at the Q next season.
When I think of "asr" stocks, there are some long-term gainers like PSUN and ZQK that come to mind, and some tragedies like Mossimo. That guy was a dick anyway.
I love the story about he had to pay retail to buy back thousands of seconds that Walmart had gotten ahold of. He had to "save the brand." A few years later he sold his entire brand and dancd like a monkey for Target to avoid total bankruptcy. Oh the Irony!
When I think of "asr" stocks, there are some long-term gainers like PSUN and ZQK that come to mind, and some tragedies like Mossimo. That guy was a dick anyway.
I love the story about he had to pay retail to buy back thousands of seconds that Walmart had gotten ahold of. He had to "save the brand." A few years later he sold his entire brand and dancd like a monkey for Target to avoid total bankruptcy. Oh the Irony!
Good post.
It's not news that teens/young adults are probably the most fickle demographic that apparel buyers at the retailers have to contend with. One year preppy is hot. Another year it's grunge. Or goth. Or surfer dude. Or retro hippy. Today the skater punk look is hot. But if there's one certainty in the garment biz, it's that teen fashion tastes change. Often on a whim from some pop culture influence.
Based on ZUMZ projections for store opening growth and its same store sales numbers, the skater punk trend looks to have legs for a while. And with your connections to the industry you may be able to spot the inevitable shift in fashion taste before the average smuck. Use your edge. Ride the trend until it bends at the end.
It's not news that teens/young adults are probably the most fickle demographic that apparel buyers at the retailers have to contend with. One year preppy is hot. Another year it's grunge. Or goth. Or surfer dude. Or retro hippy. Today the skater punk look is hot. But if there's one certainty in the garment biz, it's that teen fashion tastes change. Often on a whim from some pop culture influence.
Based on ZUMZ projections for store opening growth and its same store sales numbers, the skater punk trend looks to have legs for a while. And with your connections to the industry you may be able to spot the inevitable shift in fashion taste before the average smuck. Use your edge. Ride the trend until it bends at the end.
nncoco I still like you because you shot that vizio box! you are old-school. Thanks for the comments.
I agree that it is surprising how fundamentally sound VLCM is, which is why I feel it is a gem in the rough, at least of wall st. They definitely are no mossimo. Haha. Even ZQK and PSUN, I can make a strong argument for not owning--I don't think they are in line with the trend I outlined. That's where the little guy dekes the big MM; they have this company mislabeled. VLCM is no ZQK in the skateworld.
Though kids don't think ZQK is quite as gay as it was a few years ago.
[sounds never been heard in a skateshop: But Mooooom! I want the quicksilver!]
I could make a strong case from ZUMZ, but I feel they are decidedly expensive. PSUN is not a skate shop, ALL--as in 100%--of their merch is clothes. ZUMZ has hardgoods--boards, wheels, bearings, griptape, accessories, AND clothes. The only way to own a public play on the purchase of a skateboard is ZUMZ, which is also great, just pricier. That's why I like VLCM. I accept it has a case of "not exorbitant premium multiple"
If you were short at 30, hahahahahaha. SO the stock has to retrace 50% for you to break even. Wow. Ya know, that really does suck, so I won't call you a name. All I will say is your friend who told you to shiort deserves a swift kick in the nutes for being so wrong.
30/1.55 (2007 earnings) = 19 PE; ~30%growth rate
30/2 (2008 earnings) = 15 f/PE; ~30% growth.
If it hit 30, I would load the fucking boat "NTRI at 43" style.
FWIW: My VLCM buys
9-5-05 - 26.50
12-15-05 - 33
8-7-06 - 19.11 (biggest and clearly the bestest)
4-30-07 - 42.58
I attribute the high level of shorts to the all-time high share price, and that people sort of chronically "can't believe it will succeed." They are incorrect, of course.
The CEOs said "stoked" on their very first CC as a public company, and I'm not joking--I think the street still remembers that bc that right there is the prevailing attitude. One of "did he just say 'stoked?'"
Based on the tone of voice of some of the guys during a CC, they ask questions so incredulously, they must seriously wonder how a surfer started such a strong global brand. One, I might add, that has experienced phenomenal growth for 16 years straight years.
So I am not worried about VLCM, at all, one month or one year from now. Thought you guys should keep it on the radar.
I agree that it is surprising how fundamentally sound VLCM is, which is why I feel it is a gem in the rough, at least of wall st. They definitely are no mossimo. Haha. Even ZQK and PSUN, I can make a strong argument for not owning--I don't think they are in line with the trend I outlined. That's where the little guy dekes the big MM; they have this company mislabeled. VLCM is no ZQK in the skateworld.
Though kids don't think ZQK is quite as gay as it was a few years ago.
[sounds never been heard in a skateshop: But Mooooom! I want the quicksilver!]
I could make a strong case from ZUMZ, but I feel they are decidedly expensive. PSUN is not a skate shop, ALL--as in 100%--of their merch is clothes. ZUMZ has hardgoods--boards, wheels, bearings, griptape, accessories, AND clothes. The only way to own a public play on the purchase of a skateboard is ZUMZ, which is also great, just pricier. That's why I like VLCM. I accept it has a case of "not exorbitant premium multiple"
If you were short at 30, hahahahahaha. SO the stock has to retrace 50% for you to break even. Wow. Ya know, that really does suck, so I won't call you a name. All I will say is your friend who told you to shiort deserves a swift kick in the nutes for being so wrong.
30/1.55 (2007 earnings) = 19 PE; ~30%growth rate
30/2 (2008 earnings) = 15 f/PE; ~30% growth.
If it hit 30, I would load the fucking boat "NTRI at 43" style.
FWIW: My VLCM buys
9-5-05 - 26.50
12-15-05 - 33
8-7-06 - 19.11 (biggest and clearly the bestest)
4-30-07 - 42.58
I attribute the high level of shorts to the all-time high share price, and that people sort of chronically "can't believe it will succeed." They are incorrect, of course.
The CEOs said "stoked" on their very first CC as a public company, and I'm not joking--I think the street still remembers that bc that right there is the prevailing attitude. One of "did he just say 'stoked?'"
Based on the tone of voice of some of the guys during a CC, they ask questions so incredulously, they must seriously wonder how a surfer started such a strong global brand. One, I might add, that has experienced phenomenal growth for 16 years straight years.
So I am not worried about VLCM, at all, one month or one year from now. Thought you guys should keep it on the radar.
maggot - exactly. I don't think wall st fully accepts the trend, yet. It hasn't spread. It will. I agree trends come and go, but I feel this one has just begun for all intents and purposes, and ought to last at least 3 more years.
The last skate boom and busts:
boom to bust: 1986-1990
boom to bust: 1992-1996
boom to bust: 1998-2002
boom to bust : 2004-????
This cycle eclipses the others by a magnitude of 20. Skating is more cyclical that than practically any industry I can think of. It is literally a boom or a bust. I think skateboarding won't transcend it's cyclicality, but it won't be as strong in the future.
Without saying, "it's different this time" skateboarding is accepted across america for the first time. During those other booms it was still very much a clique industry.
By the way, it is no coincidence that the skate boom/bust timeline overlays the stock booms and expansionary periods in america. If you feel we are currently not in one, maybe you should look at what skating is telling us.
People will notice and it may be one of those things where you have people knowing nothing about the drivers opining on why its so great (....
The last skate boom and busts:
boom to bust: 1986-1990
boom to bust: 1992-1996
boom to bust: 1998-2002
boom to bust : 2004-????
This cycle eclipses the others by a magnitude of 20. Skating is more cyclical that than practically any industry I can think of. It is literally a boom or a bust. I think skateboarding won't transcend it's cyclicality, but it won't be as strong in the future.
Without saying, "it's different this time" skateboarding is accepted across america for the first time. During those other booms it was still very much a clique industry.
By the way, it is no coincidence that the skate boom/bust timeline overlays the stock booms and expansionary periods in america. If you feel we are currently not in one, maybe you should look at what skating is telling us.
People will notice and it may be one of those things where you have people knowing nothing about the drivers opining on why its so great (....
I hereby retract my vote to fire your sorry ass after your last appearance here.
Good job.
Good job.
# posted by 
: 2:39 PM
: 2:39 PM
Although I am not familiar with the VLCM brand, since "The Fly" was never a very good skater.
I will say, the trend is certainly pointing in the skter/surfer direction.
Look around the big retail stores, like AEO, ANF or ARO and you will see that theme is being mainstreamed.
Case in point: New kids movie that just hit the screen, "Surf's up"
I will buy VLCM. However, should the stock trader lower, I will track Danny down and burn his skateboard to a cinder.
I will say, the trend is certainly pointing in the skter/surfer direction.
Look around the big retail stores, like AEO, ANF or ARO and you will see that theme is being mainstreamed.
Case in point: New kids movie that just hit the screen, "Surf's up"
I will buy VLCM. However, should the stock trader lower, I will track Danny down and burn his skateboard to a cinder.
Is the Fly really gonna take a pick from one of his internet fucktards?
Danny, see, I told you he had man-crush on you.
Danny, see, I told you he had man-crush on you.
I must be too close to the epicenter of skatboarding. For me no "trend" exists. Skateboarding just is.
Interesting posting. The two most important points IMO are that you buy a stock (for the long term) in something you know and like. For you youngsters this is what Peter Lynch, who I believe was the original money manager for the Fidleity Magellan fund from the early '80s, always preached. Second, and especially for traders, one needs an edge. This IMO is vey important for a daytrader like myself since program trading, Trradebots, and hedge funs run the short term focus of the markets.
Danny,
Check this vid out:
http://dinosaurtrader.blogspot.com/2007/05/coconut-records-west-coast.html
You'll know this dude. What's with the funny outfit?
-DT
Check this vid out:
http://dinosaurtrader.blogspot.com/2007/05/coconut-records-west-coast.html
You'll know this dude. What's with the funny outfit?
-DT
fly,
i know this has been asked before, and that you hate this question, but could someone else explain by how much the price of mvis will drop when the warrants are called?
i know this has been asked before, and that you hate this question, but could someone else explain by how much the price of mvis will drop when the warrants are called?
hahahahah. I've never seen that video, that was awesome.
re: mark, he is insane, thats what.
He's still an aweseome skater, one of pioneers of street skating, if you can imagine that.
gonz, late 80's, alcatraz
re: mark, he is insane, thats what.
He's still an aweseome skater, one of pioneers of street skating, if you can imagine that.
gonz, late 80's, alcatraz
Jeremy--
MVIS goes higher, after the warrants are called.
Fuck what the people who know nothing tell you. I'm telling you 35 million in bank is exactly what this company needs, long term.
MVIS goes higher, after the warrants are called.
Fuck what the people who know nothing tell you. I'm telling you 35 million in bank is exactly what this company needs, long term.
Good article-- very thorough.
I've been skating for something like seven years now (which I'll admit is way too long), so this is right up my alley.
It's hard not to notice the growth in skating right now. Everytime I go to the park there always seems to be twenty more kids than last time; twenty NEW bastards I've never seen before (and that's saying something for the small city that I live in). I know everyone who works in a skateshop up here, and they're all saying the same thing: "those little shits are eating up product like it was Pokemon" In short, I'm getting the same picture of the industry as you are-- business is good.
VLCM seems like a good play here-- I really think that the bar is set too low for this one.
I've been skating for something like seven years now (which I'll admit is way too long), so this is right up my alley.
It's hard not to notice the growth in skating right now. Everytime I go to the park there always seems to be twenty more kids than last time; twenty NEW bastards I've never seen before (and that's saying something for the small city that I live in). I know everyone who works in a skateshop up here, and they're all saying the same thing: "those little shits are eating up product like it was Pokemon" In short, I'm getting the same picture of the industry as you are-- business is good.
VLCM seems like a good play here-- I really think that the bar is set too low for this one.
Not that it matters but one of the Motley Fool tool bags included VLCM in a recent Fortune mag article entitled "6 Supertrends and 6 Superstocks"
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fortune/0706/gallery.6trends.fortune/7.html
That may be the cause of the sudden increase in volume.
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2007/fortune/0706/gallery.6trends.fortune/7.html
That may be the cause of the sudden increase in volume.
Hey, and what are all those skaters drinking? Monster energy drinks.
In time, they will all be shooting videos of their wipeouts and projecting them onto brick walls and stuff with their PiCop projectors that are embedded into their iPhones.
This Fly/Danny collaboration is beginning to make some sense!
-DT
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In time, they will all be shooting videos of their wipeouts and projecting them onto brick walls and stuff with their PiCop projectors that are embedded into their iPhones.
This Fly/Danny collaboration is beginning to make some sense!
-DT
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