Thursday, July 26, 2007
Quick Reminder: The Bears Are Weak
Oooh, the DOW is overvalued, up 8% year-to-date. Give me a fucking break. Look, back in 1999, when the Naz was up 100% for the year, overvalued was a valid argument. But, with earnings at all time highs and stocks barely up for the year, claims of "overvalued" indices hold no water with me.
Anyway, we are down more than 300, as predicted. Now what?
The problem is strictly cosmetic. Meaning: The current perception is that stocks are vulnerable, so the domino effect is in play.
What's important to remember is the high short interest, saddled onto stocks. My guess, this current dip gets blown out of proportion by the fucktards at CNBC, effectively putting a bottom in the market. Based upon current earnings estimates, this market is finger licking cheap.
In short, I am not afraid of this dip. Instead, I am scouring the market for oversold securities. In other words, I am embracing the "asshattishness" of those who dive into empty pools.
Doing some quick scans, I like the discounts in AMTD, LAZ, BSC, GS, CSG, FMX, WCI, PLPC, TEX, CENX, RS, FCX, ALCO, BWLD, HANS, BBND, GIGM, KUB, WF, BBD, AMKR, ASTSF, MU, CAJ, TSM, HUGH, TAR, ALJ and NDAQ.
Additionally, some stocks are showing unusual strength, such as: NMR, FMCN, KEX, AXYS, TNH, CMI, FRN, PAS, DLB, BBI, BG, PSYS, NGAS, NFX, ARD, OII, SPWR, BDCO, INCY, RPRX, KERX, ONXX, BMRN, OMI, DNA, WYE, AFFX, VSTA, NTRI, AET, OMTR, ARTG, DSCM, JUPM, PG, MMM, TOMO, BIDU, HIHO, EQIX, XING, FFIV, HLIT, IKAN, ARTG, SAT, SHEN, IFSIA, ONNW, RGCO, RVBD, CROX, VIGN, CKSW, MSCS, FORM, MRVL, AAPL, OVEN, AUO, RIMM, ORA, DRIV, LSI, WFR, UTEK and RADN.
What to do with these long, tedious lists?
I don't know. Stick it in your ear.
With my money, I will hop into my car, made of dynamite sticks, and drive towards the sun.
Wish me luck.
Anyway, we are down more than 300, as predicted. Now what?
The problem is strictly cosmetic. Meaning: The current perception is that stocks are vulnerable, so the domino effect is in play.
What's important to remember is the high short interest, saddled onto stocks. My guess, this current dip gets blown out of proportion by the fucktards at CNBC, effectively putting a bottom in the market. Based upon current earnings estimates, this market is finger licking cheap.
In short, I am not afraid of this dip. Instead, I am scouring the market for oversold securities. In other words, I am embracing the "asshattishness" of those who dive into empty pools.
Doing some quick scans, I like the discounts in AMTD, LAZ, BSC, GS, CSG, FMX, WCI, PLPC, TEX, CENX, RS, FCX, ALCO, BWLD, HANS, BBND, GIGM, KUB, WF, BBD, AMKR, ASTSF, MU, CAJ, TSM, HUGH, TAR, ALJ and NDAQ.
Additionally, some stocks are showing unusual strength, such as: NMR, FMCN, KEX, AXYS, TNH, CMI, FRN, PAS, DLB, BBI, BG, PSYS, NGAS, NFX, ARD, OII, SPWR, BDCO, INCY, RPRX, KERX, ONXX, BMRN, OMI, DNA, WYE, AFFX, VSTA, NTRI, AET, OMTR, ARTG, DSCM, JUPM, PG, MMM, TOMO, BIDU, HIHO, EQIX, XING, FFIV, HLIT, IKAN, ARTG, SAT, SHEN, IFSIA, ONNW, RGCO, RVBD, CROX, VIGN, CKSW, MSCS, FORM, MRVL, AAPL, OVEN, AUO, RIMM, ORA, DRIV, LSI, WFR, UTEK and RADN.
What to do with these long, tedious lists?
I don't know. Stick it in your ear.
With my money, I will hop into my car, made of dynamite sticks, and drive towards the sun.
Wish me luck.
Comments:
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I'm eating another fucking ribeye with my money. And buying more NTRI, NSTK, IMMR and maybe even a little MVIS. Oh and I'm gonna get laid in about an hour.
Fuck, if Naz doesn't hold 2525, then interest sensitive OTC derivatives may fucking implode. The fact that I am talking about such things, means its probably time to buy.
Holding fast as much as it hurts. If things go down much more, I will look for discounted quality like GS.
gs to 50...
icarus allusion? well played.
except for you no doubt use some kind of massive gorilla glue, not some pussy wax, for commoners. Fall out? Unlikely.
icarus allusion? well played.
except for you no doubt use some kind of massive gorilla glue, not some pussy wax, for commoners. Fall out? Unlikely.
Fly I must have borrowed your time machine and forgot about it. Yesterday, I hate to even admit this, I got fucking fed up and broke a keyboard and almost fucked up a laptop. After that I sold every position I owned that was down. I kept my new positions as well as NTRI and MVIS. Right now I own MVIS, NTRI, NDAQ (just bought at 30.50), EMC (just bought more at 18.20), XTO. I plan on adding GS if it falls solidly into the 18x level. Anyone like or not like these positions? MVIS is my biggest position by the way.
# posted by 
: 2:39 PM
: 2:39 PM
Hey chinballs eat more oat meal, eat like you have never eaton before. I don't know what "eaton" means because these bears clawed my balls off and I lost alot of blood.
Good thing I wasn't that hungry earlier. CME would have taken my neck off.
My AK-46 is out of bullets, but I still have my rake.
I'm fagged.
My AK-46 is out of bullets, but I still have my rake.
I'm fagged.
My AVB short was the fucking best thing I ever did. Look at that fucking chart. Broke the weekly 100 dma today. These guys are in big trouble if we enter recession.
Wood I got so mad at NTRI and MVIS that I took it out on my other positions yesterday. Oh well sometimes your lucky. Update: I just bought more XTO. Bob Pissani is off camera jacking off again.
# posted by : 2:55 PM
: 2:55 PM
Takes balls of steel to buy Goldman.
1) They've got almost $1 trillion of assets on their balance sheet, some portion of which is corporate bonds. Corporate credit spreads have blown out, with high yield spreads widening 200 basis points in a few weeks. That's an enormous mark down of bond value. Sure, everyone who works there is smarter than Einstein, but there's no way they are perfectly hedged on their bond book when credit spreads widen that much, that fast.
2) The capital market turmoil will reduce fees from fewer M&A deals. New issuance of securities will also decline, which will also reduce fees.
Everyone knows all the BDs are going to take big hits to earnings, but how big the hits will be is impossible to quantify at this point. That's probably why there's no bid for any of the BDs.
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1) They've got almost $1 trillion of assets on their balance sheet, some portion of which is corporate bonds. Corporate credit spreads have blown out, with high yield spreads widening 200 basis points in a few weeks. That's an enormous mark down of bond value. Sure, everyone who works there is smarter than Einstein, but there's no way they are perfectly hedged on their bond book when credit spreads widen that much, that fast.
2) The capital market turmoil will reduce fees from fewer M&A deals. New issuance of securities will also decline, which will also reduce fees.
Everyone knows all the BDs are going to take big hits to earnings, but how big the hits will be is impossible to quantify at this point. That's probably why there's no bid for any of the BDs.
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