Friday, July 13, 2007


Sector Spotlight: Chemical Stocks

Is it a coincidence that AZZ drops after I sell it, MCHX sprints higher after I buy it, and MVIS breaks the fuck out after I complain about its malaise?

Answer: No

Mother Market must have sprinkled some fucking magic dust on my "calculator brain," because this shit happens all the time.

Have you ever sat through a State Lottery drawing, aired on T.V., and tried to guess the numbers? Well, this may sound like utter bullshit to simple internet folk, but "The Fly" once called every God damn number (accurately, of course), before they were revealed. All seven of those fuckers. I was only 12 years old at the time.

Now, you must be laughing to yourself thinking: "this man from the internets has done lost his mind." Or maybe you're thinking: "it must be fun smoking all that crack, then live to talk about it."

My point: I have a fucking time machine, bitches. Go ahead and check my track record. It's a mathematical impossibility.

Or, maybe the high doses of caffeine has given "The Fly" the ability to predict future events, such as meaningless State Lottery drawings.

Aside from paranormal stuff, I expect the market to mark time today, as it tries to digest yesterday's melt up.

Doing a little research last night, "The Fly" decided to start buying some chemical stocks.

Thus far, I have a very long list and need to narrow it down. But, so far, I like NEU, LZ, FTK, IOSP and AKZOY, amongst many others. I'll have a short list by Monday.

Also, the homebuilders are bouncing, up 1.5%. If you look at the homies, many of them are trading below book value. HOV is trading $10 below book. What the fuck?

Finally, look for more deals in the metal sector, now that AA got outbid by RTP. Maybe AA will turn its guns on CENX, RS or KALU? Or, maybe BHP will buy AA?

Who knows?

One thing is certain: the sector is not done going higher. Get representation you dumb fucks.

UPDATE: With MCHX dropping, like Apollo in Rocky IV, it appears "The Fly" needs to take his time machine in for some repairs.

Why is TIE still public?
Because they suck.
God I am getting big dicked gains in LEN, MPEL and MVIS. Loving today, up 2.5% already! Broker are you still eyeing BRLC?
Rumor that Buffett has taken a position in HOV has the homeys on the run.

First, I need to buy one of their tv's.

Broker I agree, as I posted last night I got one of the TV's and let me tell you I could buy 4 fucking 36" TV's from them and put them over my bed and it would still be cheaper than many others and it looks fucking awesome. I am a big fan of the TV's which tells me I should buy the stock. Same thing with MVIS, I like the technology first so I feel others will too.

One other question for you and I will let you get back to throwing dog turds at your neighbors roof, what do you think about WAG? I have owned the name since 41. Its cheap but trades in a horizontal line.
MVIS news soon!
broker, when i was in grad school at hbs, a friend was doing research on intuition - how it is the culmination of past experiences, recognizing similarities, and making decisions based on past patterns.

i am serious when i say you probably have a gift for intuitively recognizing hidden patterns...volume/price...the a stock breathes. You can tell when its sick and when its excited. yeah, that's fucked up, but i believe it.

ps - BOOM hit $40 and I sold it all.
The lottery story is true.
The fly should prove his abilities at the roulette table.

*What are chances MVIS is full of shit?
The lottery story is scary. Space alien magician.
"The Fly" has lots of scary stories.


Wanna weekend blog?

If so, email me, so that I can send an invite.
WAG is a cash machine. A millionaire maker. Hold it trade it whatever. It's about exciting as watching a haircut (except fly's of course). When it rains it pours.

Broker how many foul balls have you caught at Shea? Lucky bastard
Yeah, I'm in. I'll send it this evening. Need to find a paint color for the gameroom first. Sounds like it's going to be Hubbell House Pajarito Red. It's a real color, seriously.
mrkcbill: Do you trade in WAG? If so what is holding it back? Is it the arbitrage pressure? Actually a haircut is more fun than this shit. However it is a defensive and last year it bottomed when the market topped but during this run I feel like I could have done just as good in my MMA at 5.25%.

Not long ago my marriage hit a bumpy patch when we were trying to pick a color to paint our house. Proceed with caution!

gapping--I bought bunch of WAG in 2001 after it split @ 27. It has always had a pricey PE. which comes with quality. Close to Bil in cash 0 Debt. Squeaky Clean management.

Wal-marts $4 bullshit stalled it recently. Also they have 0 international exposure which is where all the money is being made last 24 months.
Fly grammatical error alert:

Or maybe ---your--- thinking: "it must be fun smoking all that crack, then live to talk about it."

Just wanted to mention this.

I will now go fuck a can of corn.

Thank you.
Hey Fly,
Is some big holder unloading mvis??. Last few days sell vol has been pretty high. Or is it just people who converted warrants selling??? retail holders?
Get this.

MVIS is waiting on NEWS. They have little revenue. The stock is vastly overpriced based on just their contract and coming ROV revenue.

Be happy if the stock stays around here until the end of summer--when Tokman is confident AT LEAST ONE deal will be signed. Unless there is some leaked rumor, the stock is likely to slip the longer MVIS goes w/o an announcement. You have invested in a company based on nothing but confidence that the CEO will deliver on his promises--But he is one competent MoFo. I believe.

Surprised Fly is getting antsy. He knows this. Tho you can't go worong banking 100% profits, everyone will be kicking themselves if they sell before that news hits. The stock will explode. Companies are seeking out MVIS for this technology. It just takes awhile for the lawyers to sort everything out. IMO nobody has a right to bitch until Mid september.

What are you talking about? I got it right the first time. Look for yourself.

As for MVIS:

As long as it goes up, I will shut my mouth and focus on throwing heavy desk lamps at my trader/servant.
what you are seeing is exactly what happens when worrying little old ladies put their CD money into a speculative tech stock.
yeah yeah, bla bla bla on MVIS ... I am asking this question, while we are all waiting for news - whomever may answer it .. if Tokman is so competent, if their product is gonna take off, why isn't he putting his money at these prices into his own cooking? He only has 13000 shares. The rest of the chief execs all have less than 3000.

I agree. Tokman needs to buy some stock.

Is it possible that Tokman is restricted from making open market purchases because he is privy to material inside info (a pending deal)? These legal fuckers put all kind of handcuffs on execs in order to be safe.
Tokman doesn't pay himself a large salary. Plus he has a mortgage, a wife, kids, tennis lessons, car payments and the occasional 2" or 2.5" rib-eye on the weekends. That doesn't leave much left for buying stock.
thanks , you own a significant piece of the bizz .. get your trader/servant to dial his uninspiring cheap ass up & make him wait a minute before he speaks with you. Then get it straight from the horses mouth. If I had your size position ..... the fact that as a group they don't own more does not inspire confidence. Yeah sure, these kind of comments come out while the stock is for the moment doing nothing ... I have a 280bp position .. I won't go higher unless the price action improves or management steps up. Sorry, don't mean to get on your nerves about this one. You have thrown us all a lot of winners.
thx for the replies .. I hear ya on that .. the whole exec team is light on the stock ... but they are not selling or have not sold what they do have .
not only does fly use his time machine to cherry-pick stocks from the future, he can also kick it in reverse to correct grammatical errors from the past. amazing.

must be a LS hybrid...
I believe someone at the shareholders meeting asked him why mgmnt didnt own more stock. His response: "We are not wealthy people. We hope to chnage that soon."

But I agree, he could certainly afford to buy some 5000 share blocks once in awhile.

Tho I also agree. Without setting up a plan, he is probably prohibited from buying at this time with the inside knowledge he posesses.
broker - here's a messed up intuition story for you... two nights in a row I dreamed that i bought YHOO at 9.37 and sold it at 50. same dream, both nights, back to back, woke up in a cold sweat both times. being both nucking futz and intuitive, i logged on the next day and placed an order for x thousand shares of YHOO at 9.37. it filled. i held and held. sold at 50 (presplit). made my first mil. no foolin. i still get jittery thinking about it.
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