Fly on WallStreet

Can anyone spell...

M A R K E T M A N I P U R L A T I O N.
 

This was a futures driven rally. The NASDAQ finish was not impressive considering it was hanging better than the S&P in the morning. Can anybody say 1987?
 

"effectively kicking old men down open manholes."
I love it! Fuck the bear.
The Fly is God
 

Tradercaddy- will you please elaborate? Thanks..
 

J: SO speaking of the iPhone, are you talking to apple?


AT:
We have list of about 25 target customers and that have been containing apple. Yes.


All that really matters.
 

BTW, you would make much more than that as a blogger.
Subscriptions for $250 per month times a thousand lurkers.
Maybe more?
 

WS: I seem to recall many of the circumstances in 1987 being similar to what is going on now. I recall the institutions buying portfolio insurance back then (which failed) and being highly leveraged at the same time. I recall a falling dollar, whipsaw volatlity, banks stocks crapping out before the general market, higher rates, rising oil and gold, etc. I have no idea if the charts are similar but I remember a relief rally on the Weds. and Thurs. AM the week before Oct. 19. Everybody thought it was all clear. I take it one day at a time but I have a long memory and have one foot out the door.
 

wasn't the market up 44% at the time of the 1987 crash? Hardly the same as our current less than 10% YTD.
 

So I am sitting in an office in Las Vegas watching them build Trump's new "Gold Member" - gleeming tower of vertical manhood. Glad I have an ubostructed view of his crowning achievement.

Jeremy (the other Jeremy)
 

Yeomps-I don't recall how much it was up YTD back then but it did have a great run from 1982-1987 (with a correction in 1984) just like 2002-2007. Also part of the reason for the '87 crash was then Treasury Sec'y James Baker making a threat to alow the dollar to go lower against the German mark.
 

You know what happens next don't you?

Yeah, you know it.

Acquisition announcements, lots of 'em. Clean all these farked up portfolios up.

Everyone'll be smiling and passing out ceegars by the weekend.

And I'm not just talking Phil Leotardo (he of the gay brother-in-law captain. Nice "offing scene," that) the Contractor.
 

tc,
they did not buy portfolio insurance. the insurance was to sell Futures as the stocks went down to cap their downside.
The selling begot selling and it just went downhill from there.
I do not think people thought it was all clear that Monday. If you read the Market Wizards you will see that lots of people where short because the market had already been trending down.
 

You can search "stocks 1987 crash" since there are plenty of articles on the subject. Note how leveraged buyouts and their financing was a factor in the 1987 crash.
 

tradercaddy your playing the role of the classical fear indicator at the bottom of a correction.
 

As I understand it.

There was a lack of confidence in the market due to huge amounts of insider trading scandels.

The risk-free yield bond was at greater than 10%.

The Friday before, Iranian missiles hit a US flagged tanker off the coast of Kuwait.

Meanwhile, many traders could not make it into london to close out position due to road blocks.

Early "Black Monday" 2 US warships fired on an Iranian oil platform in the Gulf

There was also, as TC said, portfolio insurance buying

The dollar was said to be getting weaker....

All that being said, it seems to me that people found a better place to put their money once they lost confidence in the stock market. I mean, if you could put your money in a 10% bond guaranteed; versus letting it sit in a volitile stock market during the beginning of a potential war, why wouldn't you?

I think traderc makes a good point, especially since people have reason to fear the market right now with some funds getting rended. However, one important question remains: Where are people going to take all their stock money to? Not RealEstate, and bonds are only around 5%.

With out a safe haven in sight, this market will fend off a crash.

However, if anyone out there knows of a way to make 10%+ guaranteed... let me know ;)
 

Not really. I was long chip stocks and BX in and out most of today. I daytrade one day a a time. If it goes down fine, if it goes up that's good too. The last time I was in fear of the market was Oct. 20, 1987 in the AM when I was ready to fly to Boston to get my $$ in cash from Fidelity. Markets do what they do.
 

Told ya we go up today ;-)

-gio
 

Chain-hooked to the back bumper.

By the dentures.

34 mph all the way to the Green Acres mall.

Third floor, by elevator.

A second to catch your breath, then...

Tossed, screaming, bumpity-bump, down the "up" escalator.

Bit. Bit. Bit. Bit. Bit.

WWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHRRRR!!
 

I doubt a market correction today will be as short-lived as 87. When the crash does occur, it will be much more prolonged.
 

Thanks tradercaddy. In 87 I had was a freshman in highschool and had my sights set on whether this senior girl's boobs were really as lopsided as they looked.

Jeremy, specifically, what makes you think it is the bottom?
 

Wow. God says we've bottomed, but TC says 1987 crash time.
Wow. If we got a 1987 type crash, it would be the best buying opp since 1987.
See I don't get the whole old man is the bear thing. The old man has been to hell and back so many times with the market. The old man should know the benefits of staying in the market rather than trying to time it. Even if you bought right before the 1987 crash, you're doing just fine now if you held through it all.
Then the bank crisis, then 1997 Asian crisis, then 2000 market meltdown until 2003. In between that time period Mexico fell hard (1994 I think) and rebounded harder. Numerous other nations went to shit and back. I don't get the bear shitters. I'm half cash right now and that's why the market won't do a 1987. When I go all in and then margin to 50% equity, then we crash.
 

the zombie: what the old men know is that it is not that some people lose a large percentage during the crashes that you have to worry about. It is the fact that leverage can bring about the blowups of many many traders/funds during such events, which causes the market to continue to spiral downward.

Also, youth and youngness are prized on wall street. It is just part of the culture.

Finally, congrats on half cash.

An aside: GS has borrowed 20 billion in treasury notes over the last 4 days. What does the collective wisdom here make of this?
 

Thanks, Wood.
Good stuff.
I'm sure I'll manage to f it up soon.
 

iio it's too bad we all don't have the luxury of playing the markets with fake money like ye.
 

^like you
 

shed, i say we've bottomed because little pussies like you and tc are crying the blues
 

Jeremy-I'm not crying the blues. I hopefully will make $$ whether the market goes up or down. It's all about survival and capital preservation if you are a trader (as opposed to an investor). I trade only what I see on a daily basis. I do know that if you are long only at this point, if you are an investor, that you do some hedging. I never said we will crash but only raised the similarities in the time periods. Guessing where the market goes (whether up or down ) is a losing proposition because the market does not care what you or I think.
 

"An aside: GS has borrowed 20 billion in treasury notes over the last 4 days. What does the collective wisdom here make of this? "...

If they "borrowed"..does that mean something like shorting an equity?

If that's the case then, GS expects the yields on the bonds/notes to go down which means they expect long-term interest rates to go down in general...???
 

Borrowed or bought? If they're bought, it could just be them resetting the yen carry...
 

Mr. Fucker:

You fucked too much and so you are fucked. I just don't understand why you like that loser MVIS. Quite deserving that you lose money in it.

SWC shows clear sign of bottomed today. Go ahead and short some SWC and be fucked a good one tomorrow.

Remember, statistics show 98% of day traders lose money. You are just part of the 98% statistics.

Go fuck your dog tonight. And fuck your 1.5 inch ribeyes as well.

You could have listened to me three days ago and short some AAPL.
 

Jake and Yokahoma, I'll put the .pdfs up on my blog, soon as I get time.

Jeremy, never mind.
 

JJ, you never gave me any click love, you rat bastard! Even after spamming my blog!
 

i think he's been reported as a spammer
 

This comment has been removed by the author.
 

This is what you find at JJ's blog:

"This blog is under review due to possible Blogger Terms of Service violations and is open to authors only"

What a tool.

http://stockology.blogspot.com/
 

^ You have to be logged out to get the msg.
 

JJ:

Google pimp smacked your dumb ass.

You know why they "laser beamed" your site?

A. "The Fly" has friends at Google.

B. They know SWC is a piece of shit.
 

Jeremy,

Sorry your having such a tough time. I hope your trading improves.