Fly on WallStreet

Channeling, channeling...

Today was powerful good, on the surface, but if you believe Friday people were just selling into the weekend fear, this may just be short covering due to the lack of Armageddon. I will be pissed if every Friday until BSC’s next earnings is like 12-31-1999. Will time itself cease to exist? Will every quote be wrong? Only on every Monday for the next month shall we know. Alternatively, Cramer could tell us, for he, at least temporarily, proved to be the bottom when he made his frenetic rant. Maybe the “people are losing their jobs” thing was about Specter.

What a bunch of worrywarts. 282 is a hell of a short cover, but there may be many more like it, as short interest on the NYSE is near an all time high.

It sure feels like that was the bottom, but I have a real hard time believing that with at least another month of negative press, we will rally significantly. I think we retest, then, it could be back to old times. I also think there is undoubtedly a fair amount of sector shifting going on out there.

I was really surprised by the action in NIHD. China telecoms were weak, as was VIP, but that stock boldly broke a very strong uptrend, after good earnings. It has been a good tell of emerging markets, and it was mangled worse than Trump’s hair in a wind tunnel. I hate to bite a bit, but this bit is worth plagiarizing, as it sums up what I've noticed the past few weeks perfectly regarding the action in the CTCMs of the world:

Gary,* sez:

“… I am keeping a close eye on emerging market economies as a significant deterioration in growth there would likely lead to another downleg in U.S. stocks. I do not expect that to occur this year, but I do believe the overowned and hyped emerging market stocks have likely already begun a multiyear period of underperformance relative to developed markets. As well, I continue to believe commodity and the most economically sensitive U.S. stocks will underperform over the intermediate term. Stocks that can grow at relatively high rates, notwithstanding slower global growth, will finally be awarded higher valuations for the first time in years. This new trend is likely just in its infancy.”

I tend to agree with his sentiment--the commodity stocks and those dependant on the people of the region using more in Latin America, India, and China, in general, have not held up as well, and I agree they may be subject to a broader pullback. International growth is still mandatory in the port, but just shift more exposure to growth that isn’t as commodity or economy related. Hmm. I still think stocks like FWLT, ABB, and MDR, are good, luxury things like LVMH are fairly inelastic, DEO, and I'm sure countless others. Other goods can be found in high-quality tech stocks, healthcare, and staples. You have to cherry pick here. Of course, still like ATK.

All the growth stocks like CROX, CMG, LEAP, AAPL, and so on that have been hit in the last few days, I still think are good to go. I cannot vouch for LEAP, but the others are very buyable on dips. There is some concern that NAND prices will kill AAPL’s margin and that this is under discussed, so I suppose that bears watching. I plan to own AAPL for years though, so you can go eat a big red candle on that one.

*(As an aside, I have successfully convinced at least 10 people that the name “Gary” is indeed short for “Richard.” Aged 15 – 35. When the say no it isn’t, then I say, “well, what is Gary short for?” Then, they assume, “Gee, it does seem as if it must be short for something.” All of a sudden, Richard sounds logical. It all stems from and old inside joke. Proof of my debating skills, or gullibility of the masses? Or more proof over thinking is bad?)

UPDATE: Wynn kicks shorts in the balls with a boot.

UPDATE 2.2: The following stocks beat:
NILE (nice pick rage), NVTL, ASEI, CUTR, JCOM, LOCM

UPDATER III: The following stocks are oops-poopin:
QSII, CTRP, CLWR, HAYN