Tuesday, August 07, 2007
Closing Comments
Sheeeite--was today ever boring. I've had more excitement painting a still-life. 300 point swing? Sure. I still had a monster day, Dow up 30 or 130, and I hope you all out there had the same. I am glad that Bernanke did what he did. Can you imagine in hindsight if he had acknowledged the problem as "fucked" how nuclear holocausted we'd be right now? I say, give the man some credit--the dow did end up after all.
After the close, we have PCLN exploding up 16.5%, while FLR and MDR both force the shorts to put the lotion on the skin at hose-point. They are up 4 and 9 percent, respectively. I hope that portends well for FWLT as it too is up AH, because they both annihilated estimates. CSCO beat but the stock isn't reacting AH, I say it goes up tomorrow (update, now up 2.2 %, 2x UPDATE: up 6.5%). GTRC and TRLG were both down, but now they are up fractionally, proving that even the sub-prime musician is alive and well (UPDATE 7:30: TRLG and GTRC are now down, but they both did miss estimates, so it was more surprising they were up at all. When I wrote this they were down, but at time of posting, they were up. They now appear to be down for good.)
Among the stocks having their stubby shelaylay handed to them, are LEAP down 15% (sub-prime phones, told you I didn't vouch for them), HLYS down 28% (vis-à-vis sub-prime shoes, not CROX), and MDRX down 5% (UPDATE 7:30: now flat.) I tried to short HLYS after I saw how fucked they were, I saw the whole thing. 500 @ 17.50, lowered my bid to 17.10 when it was still 17.40, just trying to get a fill, I knew this thing was gonna be so fucked. They were out of shares, I got nothing. WTF shit is that?
IS THIS THE BEGINNING OF A NEW RALLY?
There has been a lot of great analysis done by bloggers who are very insightful. Sure, I could provide this type of in-depth analysis, but I run an ass-kicking factory, not a soup kitchen. Besides, I hate soup--it is the non-oated red-headed stepchild of oatmeal. Anyway...
Chris Perrune-ha has good thoughts here, echoed by my boy Doc Kong nyaa and mentioned again thusly.
They all hilight the lack of new highs vs. new lows, as we all know it is the mojo stocks that lead the market. Viz., having once high-flyers breakdown is bad no matter what the dow does. Also startling is the fact that pundits globally are ignoring the hidden problem--worthless patent portfolios--there will be billions in write-downs.
I think it is to early to tell--either we are in a powerful bullmarket with strong earnings and global growth, or the credit market will scare everyone into poverty. I still adamantly believe it's part A, but like many, I wonder how far the markets can go with lagging leaders. This leads to my new hypothesis:
New leaders.
Maybe the growth of copper, aluminum, the oil services, and the other natural resources have been fully included in the price now. I think it because it is SO FUCKING LOGICAL that these stocks have huge growth, it may be a crowded bet. People are profit taking on huge gains, and at the same time bidding up new stocks. VLO had been hot for years, provided you can calculate a crack spread, but AMZN just recently got bid up. Garmin had to channel for a year before it exploded northwardly. Perhaps new leaders aren't that hard to find.
There are plenty that combine good fundamentals and straight growth, rather than economically sensitive growth. I'm talking CMG, NILE, AMZN, GOOG. You got your global infrastructure CAT, MDR, FWLT, ABB, ITRI, VMI, LNN, and many others. Global product growth--alcohol, jewelry, luxury goods. Healthcare may not be en fuego, but there are ownable names. MVIS. Go watch wallstrip for some ideas.
On a final note, correct me if I am wrong, but the Financials haven't led this market in some time. Banks, investment banks basically all Financials have been a limp dick for like 7 months now. Hell, I knew people expected Armageddon when Realty Income hit 23--I knew expectations were low. That stock has ZERO leverage on anything, signs only triple-net leases to places like taco-bell, and pays a higher-than-treasury MONTHLY dividend. They have paid this dividend, as I have mentioned, for over 234,938 consecutive months. If the Fins could rally, my god, it would be the mother of moasses. Don't forget, there still is basically record short interest on the NYSE.
Ultimately, I would wait for more confirmation from the indices as well as leading stocks before making any power moves.
After the close, we have PCLN exploding up 16.5%, while FLR and MDR both force the shorts to put the lotion on the skin at hose-point. They are up 4 and 9 percent, respectively. I hope that portends well for FWLT as it too is up AH, because they both annihilated estimates. CSCO beat but the stock isn't reacting AH, I say it goes up tomorrow (update, now up 2.2 %, 2x UPDATE: up 6.5%). GTRC and TRLG were both down, but now they are up fractionally, proving that even the sub-prime musician is alive and well (UPDATE 7:30: TRLG and GTRC are now down, but they both did miss estimates, so it was more surprising they were up at all. When I wrote this they were down, but at time of posting, they were up. They now appear to be down for good.)
Among the stocks having their stubby shelaylay handed to them, are LEAP down 15% (sub-prime phones, told you I didn't vouch for them), HLYS down 28% (vis-à-vis sub-prime shoes, not CROX), and MDRX down 5% (UPDATE 7:30: now flat.) I tried to short HLYS after I saw how fucked they were, I saw the whole thing. 500 @ 17.50, lowered my bid to 17.10 when it was still 17.40, just trying to get a fill, I knew this thing was gonna be so fucked. They were out of shares, I got nothing. WTF shit is that?
IS THIS THE BEGINNING OF A NEW RALLY?
There has been a lot of great analysis done by bloggers who are very insightful. Sure, I could provide this type of in-depth analysis, but I run an ass-kicking factory, not a soup kitchen. Besides, I hate soup--it is the non-oated red-headed stepchild of oatmeal. Anyway...
Chris Perrune-ha has good thoughts here, echoed by my boy Doc Kong nyaa and mentioned again thusly.
They all hilight the lack of new highs vs. new lows, as we all know it is the mojo stocks that lead the market. Viz., having once high-flyers breakdown is bad no matter what the dow does. Also startling is the fact that pundits globally are ignoring the hidden problem--worthless patent portfolios--there will be billions in write-downs.
I think it is to early to tell--either we are in a powerful bullmarket with strong earnings and global growth, or the credit market will scare everyone into poverty. I still adamantly believe it's part A, but like many, I wonder how far the markets can go with lagging leaders. This leads to my new hypothesis:
New leaders.
Maybe the growth of copper, aluminum, the oil services, and the other natural resources have been fully included in the price now. I think it because it is SO FUCKING LOGICAL that these stocks have huge growth, it may be a crowded bet. People are profit taking on huge gains, and at the same time bidding up new stocks. VLO had been hot for years, provided you can calculate a crack spread, but AMZN just recently got bid up. Garmin had to channel for a year before it exploded northwardly. Perhaps new leaders aren't that hard to find.
There are plenty that combine good fundamentals and straight growth, rather than economically sensitive growth. I'm talking CMG, NILE, AMZN, GOOG. You got your global infrastructure CAT, MDR, FWLT, ABB, ITRI, VMI, LNN, and many others. Global product growth--alcohol, jewelry, luxury goods. Healthcare may not be en fuego, but there are ownable names. MVIS. Go watch wallstrip for some ideas.
On a final note, correct me if I am wrong, but the Financials haven't led this market in some time. Banks, investment banks basically all Financials have been a limp dick for like 7 months now. Hell, I knew people expected Armageddon when Realty Income hit 23--I knew expectations were low. That stock has ZERO leverage on anything, signs only triple-net leases to places like taco-bell, and pays a higher-than-treasury MONTHLY dividend. They have paid this dividend, as I have mentioned, for over 234,938 consecutive months. If the Fins could rally, my god, it would be the mother of moasses. Don't forget, there still is basically record short interest on the NYSE.
Ultimately, I would wait for more confirmation from the indices as well as leading stocks before making any power moves.
Comments:
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Good post Danny, I agree there's alot of good stocks out there. Tomorrow will be a better tell of things to come.
now that I'm done, CSCO is up 6.5 % !!!
market will be good tomorrow.
Of course, their patent portfolio is worthless
market will be good tomorrow.
Of course, their patent portfolio is worthless
I love priceline, that stock is just brutal to the shorts, and they can't get enough of it! Maybe its the William Shartner ads.
^I think so.
It definitely is the shatner ads. He became the negotiator only 7 months ago, despite being a long-time rep. Notice the PCLN stock since January, up 65%. Watch tv get rich?
It definitely is the shatner ads. He became the negotiator only 7 months ago, despite being a long-time rep. Notice the PCLN stock since January, up 65%. Watch tv get rich?
I bet Fly has worked his way down from the mountains and is absconding from his top shelf vacation retreat to a lowly wifi hot spot, where he will share the mouse spooge of countless other mountain fuckers, only to check in on me and Danny.
Make sure you wash your hands fly. Those public keyboards/mouses are typhoid pits.
Make sure you wash your hands fly. Those public keyboards/mouses are typhoid pits.
not yet, it isn't. Barbra Streisand is ugly, she's still here, no one know why. She's not a fad. The similarities are striking.
As I indicated before IMHO much of the recent crazy action can be attributed to the stock market baton being passed from small caps (overvalued relative to large caps) and the other leaders (financial,energy,metals, etc.) from 2002-03 to large cap tech which hasn't done much since 2000. I believe its their time. The demand overseas from tremendous growth requires chips,hardware,servers,software,etc.
mouse spooge--hilarious...I'm sure "FLY" is playing it like Howard Hughes probably got a kleenex over the mouse.
Danny,great post thanks for all the overtime.
Danny,great post thanks for all the overtime.
I agree FFIV is oversold.
Good post Danny!
Take a look at retail, the sector was on fire today! Big dick gains can be found all over ie. JCG, VLCM, ANF, ect.
Good post Danny!
Take a look at retail, the sector was on fire today! Big dick gains can be found all over ie. JCG, VLCM, ANF, ect.
Don't you fuckers forget bio-tech and specifically NSTK. This shit is not economically sensitive, hella-important and the valuations are CHEAP. OK, if you don't like NSTK there are plenty of other great names.
I'm so fucking tired of the bashers bashing this market. Tell me with a straight face that 10 years from now medical treatment for major disease will have one iota of resemblance to chemotherapy or the archaic medieval methods used now. Then go fuck yourself if you really believe that.
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I'm so fucking tired of the bashers bashing this market. Tell me with a straight face that 10 years from now medical treatment for major disease will have one iota of resemblance to chemotherapy or the archaic medieval methods used now. Then go fuck yourself if you really believe that.
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