Thursday, August 16, 2007
Closing Comments
Holy shit, I nailed this turn around. For the moment, "The Fly" is back, with calculator and time machine on stand-by.
During the day, I sold off some non-core positions and covered all my shorts. I nailed the timing on covering LAZ-- and selling my SRS long.
Additionally, I loaded the fuck up on FCX, more than I posted here--on this stupid blog. I got prints as low as $68. And, as you know, I loaded up on NGAS, MVIS and HANS--late in the day.
In short, I feel the sentiment shifting. The danger is swinging to the short camp, as rumors of an emergency rate cut make its way around trading desks.
Naturally, only the Fed knows what it will do, regarding the Federal Funds rate. However, it's worth mentioning, managers are starting to believe the Fed is coming to the "rescue."
Finally, during this bounce, look for the basic material and financial stocks to lead the way. Believe it or not, I like CFC here-- only for a bounce. And, of course, some of the metal names, like RS, CENX, FCX and PCU.
Don't forget, the risk to the system is still there; however, should the Fed do its job, life can get a lot easier for the longs.
NOTE: To celebrate today's rally, I just went into the stairwell and kicked an old man down a flight of stairs, while drinking some florescent green soda (Monster Energy)-- from my diamond encrusted chalice.
NOTE II: The 'Golden Bear' worked. Fuck my voodoo Doctor.
Be well.
During the day, I sold off some non-core positions and covered all my shorts. I nailed the timing on covering LAZ-- and selling my SRS long.
Additionally, I loaded the fuck up on FCX, more than I posted here--on this stupid blog. I got prints as low as $68. And, as you know, I loaded up on NGAS, MVIS and HANS--late in the day.
In short, I feel the sentiment shifting. The danger is swinging to the short camp, as rumors of an emergency rate cut make its way around trading desks.
Naturally, only the Fed knows what it will do, regarding the Federal Funds rate. However, it's worth mentioning, managers are starting to believe the Fed is coming to the "rescue."
Finally, during this bounce, look for the basic material and financial stocks to lead the way. Believe it or not, I like CFC here-- only for a bounce. And, of course, some of the metal names, like RS, CENX, FCX and PCU.
Don't forget, the risk to the system is still there; however, should the Fed do its job, life can get a lot easier for the longs.
NOTE: To celebrate today's rally, I just went into the stairwell and kicked an old man down a flight of stairs, while drinking some florescent green soda (Monster Energy)-- from my diamond encrusted chalice.
NOTE II: The 'Golden Bear' worked. Fuck my voodoo Doctor.
Be well.
Comments:
<< Home
Hell yes the risk is still there.
Home prices are just beginning a long slide. Home builders have barely made a dent in their legal workforces, so there will be many layoffs to come there. Home sales volumes in California are going to plummet, knocking still more people out of the real estate and mortgage business.
Mortgage holders here in So Cal haven't even started trying hard to dump their REO inventory. It will soon be piling up so fast that they will have to go on a hiring binge to have the staff to handle disposal.
And I'm out of Dirty Golden Bear verses.
Home prices are just beginning a long slide. Home builders have barely made a dent in their legal workforces, so there will be many layoffs to come there. Home sales volumes in California are going to plummet, knocking still more people out of the real estate and mortgage business.
Mortgage holders here in So Cal haven't even started trying hard to dump their REO inventory. It will soon be piling up so fast that they will have to go on a hiring binge to have the staff to handle disposal.
And I'm out of Dirty Golden Bear verses.
FUCK YEAH!
Thing is, nothing has been decided yet. Volatility should continue.
No vacation for me next week...
-DT
Thing is, nothing has been decided yet. Volatility should continue.
No vacation for me next week...
-DT
I have learned not to panic sell. Still haven't got the stones to buy into this volitality, but it is starting to be a pattern. I smell a fish.
You must have been praying to the hurricane gods, too. Models are starting to curve Dean northward a bit more into the GOM.
And going to Jamacia looks like a big mistaka. They are going to get crushed by a CAT 4 Dean.
And going to Jamacia looks like a big mistaka. They are going to get crushed by a CAT 4 Dean.
Noe fuck you fools that laughed at me for saying we would end green. See my previous posts if you missed it. When I pulled out my golden monkey (before that turd bull) we were down 300 points. This is classic capitulation day and I have been calling for 12,600 for a long time. I think Crude Broker actually agreed with me on this a while back. Now one thing I am telling you at this point is if you don't buy some Natty you are going to be missing out big time. Take it for what its worth.
# posted by 
: 5:08 PM
: 5:08 PM
http://www.microsoft.com/typography/ClearType/tuner/Step1.aspx
*Install this shit, you won't regret it.
*Install this shit, you won't regret it.
I hoist a virtual beer in your honor, yapping.
You made the call when we were in deep shit and sinking.
You made the call when we were in deep shit and sinking.
Countrywide REOs approaching 11,000 units and has been rising by about 30 per day since the start of the year.
http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/index.html
The biggest numbers are in CA, not surprisingly, but there is a lot of exposure to MI.
http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspot.com/index.html
The biggest numbers are in CA, not surprisingly, but there is a lot of exposure to MI.
UNG, If natty doubles or triples as it did with Rita, UNG doubles or triples. The purest play out there, it's a new ETF and not well known. I'm sure Bolling will be all over it this evening. VERY VOLATILE!
Amateurs (like me!) can play along in UNG with less capital by buying call options.
An Oct. call will let you play for most of the hurricane season, in case Dean Eric, Felix, Gabrielle, et al fail to come through for you by expiration in September.
Not only may you lose money, but you might lose all of it. Don't put up anything you would miss.
And don't cheer for massively destructive hurricanes. Only the pros are allowed to do that. Amateurs can cheer for are massively threatening hurricanes that scare the industry into evacuations and shut-downs before petering out into some gentle rains and beautiful sunsets.
An Oct. call will let you play for most of the hurricane season, in case Dean Eric, Felix, Gabrielle, et al fail to come through for you by expiration in September.
Not only may you lose money, but you might lose all of it. Don't put up anything you would miss.
And don't cheer for massively destructive hurricanes. Only the pros are allowed to do that. Amateurs can cheer for are massively threatening hurricanes that scare the industry into evacuations and shut-downs before petering out into some gentle rains and beautiful sunsets.
Fly, Well executed play on LAZ.
Just crossing the wires:
8/16/07 19:05 Dow Jones UPDATE: Lazard CEO, Trust Buy $17.5M Worth Of Company Stock>>>LAZ
Just crossing the wires:
8/16/07 19:05 Dow Jones UPDATE: Lazard CEO, Trust Buy $17.5M Worth Of Company Stock>>>LAZ
Thanks for the comments guys. I personally have been buying XTO and UNG. I like XTO a lot because it has held up very well in the selloff and it isn't 100% correlated to natty. However should you decide to also buy UNG be very very careful with it as it can chop your fucking balls off as in smooth off, no jagged edges. That said the shit is gonna go up with the heat from this summer and the massive hurricane developing. My top pick right now is NDAQ. Look we had another record day for the Nasdaq today and its only getting heavier as electronic trade is the way of the future. Its a screaming buy here and I bought more today at 28.50. I think us little guys have a good chance to make big dollars off of the forced selling from risk managers right now. These fucking tradebots have been getting so long in the neutral market that they had to blow out of their entire models which caused a ton of this selling, they were also allowed to short on the downticks which I personally know one fund that has been milking it to death. Buy the panic and blood I say just like last summer when we shit the shower. Good luck guys and go MVIS!
# posted by : 7:19 PM
: 7:19 PM
All mining stocks were hit hard, real hard. The only thing green today, and very green, is SWC up 5% close at $8.72. If you load at the low of $7.93 you would be up almost 10%.
Don't you wonder where does the strength of SWC come from? Sister stock PAL was hammered down 10%. Big institutions are loading up SWC big time recently. They know that due to development of mobile fuel cell for cell phones etc. This is something HUGE. Don't you want a cell phone that runs 6 months without recharging?
The 1.1M block purchase of SWC near the end today, really rings a huge bell. This never happened before. Is this a strong signal for something big tomorrow?
As for PCU, I see copper may be bearish, real bearish. If that is the case there is danger that PCU can fall further. Why don't you load some silver mine as silver is rebouncing quick, while as copper failed to rebounce.
If you love swing trading volatile stock, try TSL. I think $40 is probably the bottom, and $70+ is probably the top. I traded it twice in the past, both long and short. Both very profitable.
Don't you wonder where does the strength of SWC come from? Sister stock PAL was hammered down 10%. Big institutions are loading up SWC big time recently. They know that due to development of mobile fuel cell for cell phones etc. This is something HUGE. Don't you want a cell phone that runs 6 months without recharging?
The 1.1M block purchase of SWC near the end today, really rings a huge bell. This never happened before. Is this a strong signal for something big tomorrow?
As for PCU, I see copper may be bearish, real bearish. If that is the case there is danger that PCU can fall further. Why don't you load some silver mine as silver is rebouncing quick, while as copper failed to rebounce.
If you love swing trading volatile stock, try TSL. I think $40 is probably the bottom, and $70+ is probably the top. I traded it twice in the past, both long and short. Both very profitable.
BTW your move to load NGAS today is a good one. NGAS is down, but on low volume. There is no panic. Every one just bet on Hurricane DEAN.
Past history show that NGAS can really shot up fast when there is something in natural gas market. During 1999 or 2000 there was a period of 60 days wheren NGAS gained a whole 10 fold. A 10 bagger in 60 days! You coud wait a lifetime and not get a 10 bagger in other stocks.
The bigger picture is North American Natural Gas Crisis, do we web search if you do not know what I am talking about.
Past history show that NGAS can really shot up fast when there is something in natural gas market. During 1999 or 2000 there was a period of 60 days wheren NGAS gained a whole 10 fold. A 10 bagger in 60 days! You coud wait a lifetime and not get a 10 bagger in other stocks.
The bigger picture is North American Natural Gas Crisis, do we web search if you do not know what I am talking about.
SWC looks pretty stinky to me
- gross margins in mid single digits
- mines making transition "toward more selective mining methods", meaning that the easy-to-get ore is petering out
- analysts steadily reducing next-year estimates
- low insider ownership, plenty of insider selling when stock was near 52-wk highs in the Spring
- bad labor relations
- odds that a fuel-cell powered cell phone that can go 6 months without refueling will appear within the next 10 years is about the same as the odds I'll learn to hold my breath for 6 months in that period
- gross margins in mid single digits
- mines making transition "toward more selective mining methods", meaning that the easy-to-get ore is petering out
- analysts steadily reducing next-year estimates
- low insider ownership, plenty of insider selling when stock was near 52-wk highs in the Spring
- bad labor relations
- odds that a fuel-cell powered cell phone that can go 6 months without refueling will appear within the next 10 years is about the same as the odds I'll learn to hold my breath for 6 months in that period
Ottnott:
Motorola will release fuel cell powered cell phone this year, not 10 years later. Fuel cell is not new technology. NASA has used it for decades. They just recently try to miniaturize it. It's a huge market, huge for SWC.
The gross margin of SWC? Well if the PGM price goes up, SWC will be making tons of money. Currently SWC has a low price/sales ratio of only 1.2. Metal price quadruple and sales will quadruple, with the big portion of sales going into gross profit.
If you look at PCU 4 years ago in mid 2003, copper was at $0.76 and PCU was not making any money at all. You would gain 20 folds in PCU as copper price went up more than quadruple.
So have a good look at fuel cells. Fuel Cells MUST use PGM metals. Visit www.fuelcelltoday.com or www.fuelcellsworks.com. Or click my name visit my blog, I have links there.
Fuel Cell is HUGE. Don't you agree that cell phone that works 6 month at a time is huge?
Motorola will release fuel cell powered cell phone this year, not 10 years later. Fuel cell is not new technology. NASA has used it for decades. They just recently try to miniaturize it. It's a huge market, huge for SWC.
The gross margin of SWC? Well if the PGM price goes up, SWC will be making tons of money. Currently SWC has a low price/sales ratio of only 1.2. Metal price quadruple and sales will quadruple, with the big portion of sales going into gross profit.
If you look at PCU 4 years ago in mid 2003, copper was at $0.76 and PCU was not making any money at all. You would gain 20 folds in PCU as copper price went up more than quadruple.
So have a good look at fuel cells. Fuel Cells MUST use PGM metals. Visit www.fuelcelltoday.com or www.fuelcellsworks.com. Or click my name visit my blog, I have links there.
Fuel Cell is HUGE. Don't you agree that cell phone that works 6 month at a time is huge?
JJ, you are a cheap lowlife bastard. After all the spamming you did to my blog, not even once did you give me any click love.
jj:
I first covered the FC field professionally (not as a stock analyst) more than 20 years ago. I still have some FC Conference materials that are almost old enough to buy alcohol.
A commercial FC-powered cell phone by the end of the year? No way.
A commercial FC-powered cell phone that goes 6 months between fuelings within 10 years? No way.
And it is not true that "fuel cells MUST use PGM metals", though it is true that all low-temperature fuel cells (which cell phones would use) currently use PGMs.
As for SWC and PGM prices, a 7% YOY increase in realized prices for the first 6 mo. didn't stop the company from losing money.
Well if the PGM price goes up, SWC will be making tons of money. That's the tricky part, isn't it? So hard to find a good crystal ball these days.
Post a Comment
I first covered the FC field professionally (not as a stock analyst) more than 20 years ago. I still have some FC Conference materials that are almost old enough to buy alcohol.
A commercial FC-powered cell phone by the end of the year? No way.
A commercial FC-powered cell phone that goes 6 months between fuelings within 10 years? No way.
And it is not true that "fuel cells MUST use PGM metals", though it is true that all low-temperature fuel cells (which cell phones would use) currently use PGMs.
As for SWC and PGM prices, a 7% YOY increase in realized prices for the first 6 mo. didn't stop the company from losing money.
Well if the PGM price goes up, SWC will be making tons of money. That's the tricky part, isn't it? So hard to find a good crystal ball these days.
<< Home
