Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Closing Comments
The bottom is in.
If that COF news was released early last week, the stock would have been obliterated--taking down the entire market with it. Instead, the stock moved higher, as investors said "fuck it" and went long.
While it's true, much of the recent decline can be attributed to real fundamental risk; a lot of selling was done under duress, caused by psychological financial warfare.
Just looking at the headlines, one would believe the U.S. is poor and entirely dependent on credit-- nation of fucktards. Please, give me a fucking break.
By far, we are the wealthiest nation in the world-- with lots of stupid millionaires, who consume until they're blue in the face. It is my belief, the stock market will increase enough to cushion the blow of the housing crash.
One rising asset class will replace another.
For me, a key tell was today's rise in the basic resource stocks. If we are heading towards recession and global growth is grinding to a halt, why was RS, PCU, CENX, ATI, CLF and many others punching the faces off the shorts?
While it's true, many stocks have been marked down, causing many of you (internet fools) to have the balls to question the semiconductor chips inside my "calcualtor brain." Remember, money is not coined quickly or effortlessly. There will be times when you will question the day you were conceived, puzzled by random declines in some of your favorite names. And, there will be occasions when you feel like a "bullet proof investment oracle," unable to lose money.
My point: "The Fly" is much smarter than you, even during periods of rapid decline. Fuck around and start betting against my positions, you'll find yourself with those sub-prime fuckers, being foreclosed on.
NOTE: I'm thinking about iiG, ahead of numbers.
If that COF news was released early last week, the stock would have been obliterated--taking down the entire market with it. Instead, the stock moved higher, as investors said "fuck it" and went long.
While it's true, much of the recent decline can be attributed to real fundamental risk; a lot of selling was done under duress, caused by psychological financial warfare.
Just looking at the headlines, one would believe the U.S. is poor and entirely dependent on credit-- nation of fucktards. Please, give me a fucking break.
By far, we are the wealthiest nation in the world-- with lots of stupid millionaires, who consume until they're blue in the face. It is my belief, the stock market will increase enough to cushion the blow of the housing crash.
One rising asset class will replace another.
For me, a key tell was today's rise in the basic resource stocks. If we are heading towards recession and global growth is grinding to a halt, why was RS, PCU, CENX, ATI, CLF and many others punching the faces off the shorts?
While it's true, many stocks have been marked down, causing many of you (internet fools) to have the balls to question the semiconductor chips inside my "calcualtor brain." Remember, money is not coined quickly or effortlessly. There will be times when you will question the day you were conceived, puzzled by random declines in some of your favorite names. And, there will be occasions when you feel like a "bullet proof investment oracle," unable to lose money.
My point: "The Fly" is much smarter than you, even during periods of rapid decline. Fuck around and start betting against my positions, you'll find yourself with those sub-prime fuckers, being foreclosed on.
NOTE: I'm thinking about iiG, ahead of numbers.
Comments:
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"Just looking at the headlines, one would believe the U.S. is poor and entirely dependent on credit. Please, give me a fucking break."
BEAUTIFUL!
BEAUTIFUL!
you said there was a 'buzz' around IIG when it was 24 .. so I guess 25% of the risk is now out of it
regarding materials/resource stocks rising - china is hitting alltime highs .. but it will get crushed one of these days and perhaps soon ... they are dependent on the US consumer to a large degree .. so some air will have to come out of the export based economies of asia ... India got spanked last night & they were the first to take a hit in february .. I think you got to keep an eye on asia for the next leg down, if there is gonna be one .. there is still risk out there ... no all clear just yet
regarding materials/resource stocks rising - china is hitting alltime highs .. but it will get crushed one of these days and perhaps soon ... they are dependent on the US consumer to a large degree .. so some air will have to come out of the export based economies of asia ... India got spanked last night & they were the first to take a hit in february .. I think you got to keep an eye on asia for the next leg down, if there is gonna be one .. there is still risk out there ... no all clear just yet
I haven't been long IIG, since I sold it north of $30.
For awhile, there were private equity rumors rampart. However, ever since that card was taken off the table, the stock has been repriced.
That doesn't mean it still can't happen. We will see.
For awhile, there were private equity rumors rampart. However, ever since that card was taken off the table, the stock has been repriced.
That doesn't mean it still can't happen. We will see.
All good points. I'm not so sure the chart chompers would agree, but then again, they don't have the benefit of a time machine or calculator brain.
FYI.......iiG is only about 73% sold short.....roughly 7.3M of 12.3M outstanding. It will only take 30 days or so to cover......very interesting.
Long 2500 at 18 today.
Long 2500 at 18 today.
You're not smarter than me... ;) I'm still up 102% YTD (2007) and actually made $$ in this downturn. But thanks for posting ur thoughts though...
Fly,
MVIS CFO jeff wilson exercised options and sold shares.
Form 4:
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=114723&p=irol-sec
MVIS CFO jeff wilson exercised options and sold shares.
Form 4:
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=114723&p=irol-sec
Did anyone see "Herb the bearshitter" on CNBC tonight? I thought he was going to cry because the market hasn't crashed yet. When the bears start getting angry, you know the bulls (and the Fly) are stomping on their balls. Gotta love it!
iMergent (AMEX: IIG). On Friday, the company said it is appealing a California court's order that would force it to file under that state's law governing seller-assisted marketing plans.
It's not the first time iMergent has tangled with California state officials. A deal that included some $550,000 in fines was originally reached last year. Now, according to this 8-K, state officials contend that iMergent didn't abide by the earlier deal. Quoting:
On July 25, 2007, the Ventura County (CA) District Attorney notified iMergent, Inc. (the "Company") by telephone call to its California legal counsel that the State of California and the Ventura County District Attorney filed a complaint, motion for temporary restraining order, and motion for preliminary injunction against the Company. ... The complaint seeks an injunction and penalties based upon alleged violations of the California Seller Assisted Marketing Plans Act (California Civil Code 1812.200-1812.221 "SAMP ACT"), the Unfair Competition Law (California Civil Code 17200), and the Business and Professional Code (California Civil Code 17207.) The action further alleges that the Company failed to abide by the terms of a previous order by failing to register under the Seller Assisted Marketing Plans Act. [Emphasis mine.]
I'd consider this pretty minor stuff if:
(a) A deal hadn't already been reached.
(b) Other states hadn't pursued similar claims (e.g., Indiana, Texas, and Utah).
(c) Executives weren't already being accused of selective disclosure.
(d) iMergent weren't being investigated by the SEC.
But, sadly, all of that is true. Better steer clear of this stock till we know exactly what California's regulators have found.
What do u think fly?
It's not the first time iMergent has tangled with California state officials. A deal that included some $550,000 in fines was originally reached last year. Now, according to this 8-K, state officials contend that iMergent didn't abide by the earlier deal. Quoting:
On July 25, 2007, the Ventura County (CA) District Attorney notified iMergent, Inc. (the "Company") by telephone call to its California legal counsel that the State of California and the Ventura County District Attorney filed a complaint, motion for temporary restraining order, and motion for preliminary injunction against the Company. ... The complaint seeks an injunction and penalties based upon alleged violations of the California Seller Assisted Marketing Plans Act (California Civil Code 1812.200-1812.221 "SAMP ACT"), the Unfair Competition Law (California Civil Code 17200), and the Business and Professional Code (California Civil Code 17207.) The action further alleges that the Company failed to abide by the terms of a previous order by failing to register under the Seller Assisted Marketing Plans Act. [Emphasis mine.]
I'd consider this pretty minor stuff if:
(a) A deal hadn't already been reached.
(b) Other states hadn't pursued similar claims (e.g., Indiana, Texas, and Utah).
(c) Executives weren't already being accused of selective disclosure.
(d) iMergent weren't being investigated by the SEC.
But, sadly, all of that is true. Better steer clear of this stock till we know exactly what California's regulators have found.
What do u think fly?
Poet--
This company's problems can go away, providing state regulators believe they are a software company.
By all metrics, the stock is very cheap.
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This company's problems can go away, providing state regulators believe they are a software company.
By all metrics, the stock is very cheap.
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