Fly on WallStreet

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I agree, for the forseeable future we are locked into a cycle of inflation and deflation until we finally get a hard depression a few years out which cleanses the system. IMHO
 

You'll never get a "hard Depression" again, because our own Depression (from the thirties) was the result of such a confluence of fucktardedness.

Despite his claim to be a Republican, Hoover was as much of an economy controlling asshat as the best of his socialist adveraries. Not only did the idiot RAISE taxes in the teeth of the liquidity crash, but pushed for the closing of the trade lanes through the Smoot Hawley tarriff as well.

All of this led to socialist disaster Roosevelt gettting elected and prolonging what asshat Hoover had started through a series of disasterous "five year plan" type gov't top down management of the economy. The result? Nine years after the Crash of 1929, our unemployment levels were still at 20%.

Man our great grandparents (grandparents and parents to some) must've been one stoic bunch of mofos back then, to put up with such utter asshattery. We get a quarter point downturn in GDP growth today, and you'd think there was gonna be a revolution.

But that's the way I like it. Gov't on the other hand, will never farking learn.
 

Cleanse the system? Of what?
 

IF the Dems have their way and put tariff's on Chinese goods, can you say repeat?
 

Jeremy--

I just went back in my time machine and fixed that horrible error.

Thanks a lot, dick.
 

Of excesses, of course.

And jake, I'm talking a world wide depression. It will happen.
 

True.

All bets are off when it comes to the China factor. ALL BETS.
 

The great thing about Depressions is the world war that will get us out of it.

Can't wait.

Good times.
 

Bernanke is out to teach whomever that he is the boss and you don't mess with the new sheriff in town. The rules have changed & you are all gonna dance to his tune as he tries to undo the mess that Greenspan created without sending us into a depression. He is perfectly willing to have civilian casualties & plenty of them, like TMA, to get the job done. And he is perfectly willing to let a recession happen for a while, global if need be.
 

"Of excesses, of course."

Sure, but could you please be more specific?

I'm not looking to for a debate here, but I would think that the characterization of domestic speculation as excessive is itself a bit extreme.
 

No, the world war will get China out of their depression. We will be like post WWII Germany, they will be like we were. I better start brushing up on my Mandarin so I can kiss some Chinese ass when they start marching through here.
 

world war that will get us out of it.

I would shit-talk China here, but like I said, "All bets are off". After all, you just never know what kind of Chinese "detention center" you might find yourself in thirty years down the road-- all because of some China shit-talking that happened way back when.
 

"I better start brushing up on my Mandarin.."

Probably a good idea.

Also learn to eat more pok flied lice, with robster sauce.
 

You are all fucking crazy. All of you are hinting that America will be like scenes from Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome. My family has a little land in Grainola, OK. It really is a town, no internet though. I will do just fine out there catching fish and killing deer. My pastime will be sittin' on the porch with my shotgun, building my bunker, drinking moonshine, looking out for Chinamen, democrats and subprime borrowers. I'm going to start brushing up on my Man vs. Wild skills. He'll teach you how to find the edible spiders and drink water out of elephant shit.

http://dsc.discovery.com/fansites/manvswild/manvswild.html
 

yes, but we will have this to deal with the chinese...

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-8539219904112513252

however, it may be made in china.
 

jeremy--

re: "excesses"

here are a few off the top of my head:

--how about hedge fund managers that bank $100 million for achieving an an 8% return in their "market neutral" fund for shareholders?

--how about the plethora of overpriced billion dollar deals the past 2 years? The Street sees $$$, the average Joe sees excessive profits and job losses

--how about TV shows that tout the "lifestyles of the rich and famous"?

--how about jocks who command $100 million pay packages for hitting a leather covered ball 400 ft with a hardwood bat?

--how much more common is it now that people are driving Mercedes, BMWs, luxury SUVs and have million dollar homes? It's expected for middle /upper middle class now.

These are signs of not just good times, but ridiculously good times.

Crude--Bear Grylls doesn't have anything on me. I know how to live in the wild with just a knife, flint and water-bottle. I've done it, so I'm not worried. Everyone ought to try it for a week. It gives you a better appreciation for what you have--the finer things.
 

What the fuck is all this whining?

The fucking stock market is correcting!

The sky isn't fucking cave in on you! Look at some long term charts. You'll find that shit is completely normal and we are still near the top of a long term trading range.

So we dip into a period of recession. Will we? Who knows, but keep in mind that a recession is NOT a Great Depression.

Fuck, you fuckers need to do some chart-chomping!
 

Shed, it figures that you're the first level head to post, they fired you after all so it's not a huge surprise - chickens, sans heads.
 

Overpaid hedge fund managers, the worship of celebrities, and the quest for ever-better status symbols are long-standing American traditions.
Dow 14000 didn't spawn "Cribs" or #756.

In any case, do those things really justify a "hard depression"?

I think Woodshedder is right here. The charts look fairly healthy; it's not like we're "parabolic" or anything.
 

Har, har, har.

Woodshedder brought his fucking charts to the debate of solvency.

In case you didn't know, charts are useless tools for lazy men.

I remember, back in 2000, everyone said, "this is normal," "healthy," " things will get back to normal in no time."

Two years later I'm knifing the guy next to me for a piece of roast beef.

At least we have retail sales to fall back on.

Har, har, har. (That's how my Chinese restaurant guy laughs, who, by the way, has a brand new "Grand Opening" sign up).
 

Speculative excess = Every last person in China maxing out their credit card to play the markets.

True story.
 

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BTW:

Who fucking said "Hard depression"?

All I'm saying is: if the pressure in the system is not relieved soon, it will snap (like a pretzel made of money).

It will result in a 1991'ish type of feel, not 1929.

Come on, retards.
 

The growth rate of leveraged loans is what is parabolic. The stock market is just the side show. Credit market is in the shits, or central bankers wouldn't be injecting liquidity.

On a happier note:

The resourcefulness of the Bulls in surviving this market:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kotNQOYFxkw
 

Fly- The fucking charts in 2000 were so saying sell that it had to be complete ignorance, stupidity, or fucking swelled-up heads from massive amounts of banked coin that kept people believing it was normal or healthy. Show any amateur a 5 year chart of the indexes during that time and he would be a seller.
 

Even Fly has a case of the pussy sweats. lol.
 

And I'm not disagreeing with you about solvency.
 

1991 was a roughly 22% correction. I don't disagree at all that something like that is out of the realm of possibility.
 

Wood--

Really?

I'm not talking about the dot coms. I'm talking about S&P stocks, getting their balls knocked around like a speed bag.

Trust me when I say: no chart chompers were warning of doom, 80% of the nas, back then.

Hindsight is 20/20.
 

BTW:

This doesn't mean we can't make coin in MVIS, fyi.
 

realm of possibility...

how's this: all three major asset classes have peaked in the recent past: stocks, bonds and real estate.

Some would say this is the ultimate bubble bursting.

I tend to think of it as a coil that is starting to unwind. That doesn't mean you can't make money in this environment. You just have to adapt to other possibilities.

Keep in mind that I am thinking in terms of macro and long-term,which is anathema to the typical day trader with a microscopic view and 1-minute bar mentality (not that there's anything wrong with that)..
 

I will not debate the hindsight bias.

However, take a look at the weekly S&P chart from 90-92.

It starts dropping the 3rd week of July, and drops for six weeks straight, losing 17.5% before staging a 2 week bounce, and then dropping another 5% or so.

5 months later, the S&P is making new highs.

Certainly the charts are not predictive. However, they help one understand what has happened before, and therefore, what might happen again.
 

Don't forget the commodity bubble.

All this can be averted with a 50 basis point cut.
 

True.

Don't get me wrong, I'm still long out my ears and reduced my hedges today.

I'm concerned that the perception will become reality, with regards to insolvency.

In my opinion, the vast amounts of bankruptcies could have been avoided, back in 2000-2002, if Greendick would have acted sooner.

The capital market suddenly closed, without warning, to thousands of tech companies, who might have made it, providing there was a more liquid environment.
 

Bottom line: I'm doing a "moan back" on RAS and TMA tomorrow (beep, beep, beep).
 

Bottom-line:

No liquidity = falling asset values

No liquidity + fear = depression

Hopefully people learn from history and from past mistakes.
 

And while I'm doing some serious munching, the Comp dropped 35% in 3 weeks time in 2000.

I was not trading during that time, but would I have been, I probably would have thought it was oversold and would come back.

However, now I know from studying that time that one must take into account the fundamental picture, and use it to understand the extreme selloff (technical picture). Looking at it in those terms makes perfect sense.
 

Stockhead, did you go like 200% short today?

Whats all this about a depression?
 

I have about 20% of account value short via SDS, as a hedge and over 40% cash.

Sorry to invoke the D-word. I'm just speaking in theory. It's a blip on the probability radar screen, but leave it up to some govt fucktards to screw things up, and you never know.
 

Yeah, I don't doubt the gov't gumming up the works, although I would have to go back and study a bunch of history in order to assign any sort of probability to a depression. Although, I can tell you the market's patents are definitely worthless.
 

This entire thread makes me want to vomit. If Danny were here he'd be loading up on PG because there's gonna be a tampon shortage thanks to all you morons.
 

How long before we hear of a hedge fund manager committing suicide ? You know like jumping out of a 70th floor window in midtown Manhattan.
Any fucker who blows up a 'hedge fund' was obviously not hedged and an overpaid idiot to boot. They should be shamed into taking their lives. :)
 

The stock market is definitely oversold, but we have seen from the past that it can get more oversold. All the hedgies and financial managers with forced redemptions to meet margin calls is what is fueling this. They're selling everything now--especially if it has a profit, because they can offset with losses from leveraged fixed income portfolio.

The Fed just needs to keep providing liquidity for now, cut interest rates (yes, 50 bps would be good)and worry about inflation after that. They know they have to walk a tightrope, shifting from one side to another to maintain balance, so what's the big deal?
 

Capitalgame- they are called hedge fund because they were used as a way for traditional fund investors to "hedge" their capital with alternative strategies. I do not believe they were ever intended as park for 100% of someone's capital.

Mdawzs- you are killing me tonight. Danny needs to quit chasing trim and come bust balls.
 

...and shave and trim his nails
 

Stockhead, do you carry a purse with various accessories to detail your nails when you're out?
 

no, I was just reminded of what 12 rounds said last night when he went off on danny
 

Since this thread has become 200 comments long, I figured I'd come back and remind you all that my response was THERE'S NO FRACKIN' WAY THEY'LL BE A DEPRESSION like we endured in the 30's.

No, that was a fuck up of gigasmic governmentally idiotic (and at this point unacceptable to even the cheeziest rube) proportions.

No, even with our failing public schools, the socialists could not get away with enough shite to reproduce that grand mal fuckup.
 

MDAWSZ the raging bull, whose blog is named "Get Short."

Go get me a slice of toast, lightly buttered.
 

Fly, that's old and used, you need some fresh material.

Tuck yourself into bed.

Viz
 

Fly, his "pussy sweats" comment still has me rolling.

Your comeback, while ducatiesque on the slam-o-meter, was not nearly was funny.
 

Broker A,
I know you don't give a flying fuck what I have to say. Before you throw the towel in and tell me about how we're going into "the great depression" let's look at a couple of FACTS.

I know all about this lender and that lender... blah lah fucking blah... Jobs and Jobs alone my friend pay fucking bills. If our economy grows we create jobs.. When we have jobs we pay our bills. FACT-the housing market is in a downturn... How many fucking houses should one family buy?? I could tell you about how 20 families I know bought a larger house, bought a vacation house, bought a new 3rd house,etc.. I could go on and on.. The fact that this has reached a peak, ie. no more FUCKING GROWTH, has scared the shit out of the fucking: 1.) Homelenders 2.) Homebuilders.. So in turn they have started the: let's scare the shit out of everyone and create fucking panic so that we can continue Selling our shit and coining money at the dollars expense. To them inflation doesn't mean shit, they don't give a horse fuck what you pay for a loaf of bread, they want to keep selling houses with 4% 5yr ARMs leading the way. Fuck them, our economy is growing at 3.5% and we're creating 100,000 jobs a month. Take those facts and tell me about our "Great Depression".
 

grow chron and f the govt.......trade like u r a VIKING.pillage.....Legalize the ganja..... drunk after shorting GS... NTRI- long dry shippers....WMZ
 

Who said "Great Depression"?

Can you fuckers read?

I said the banks are fucked, if the Fed doesn't cut rates soon.

As you know, the bond market is already pricing in two cuts.

I'm not the only one who thinks this.

As for recession, it is likely inevitable, if nothing is done.

As for MDAWSZ:

Listen here old chap,

Should you have the *bottle* to meet me for a *steel caged match*, I will gladly fly to Portland to arrange such a *meeting*.

Fire everyone to the man.

Viz.

Jog On.
 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ox2bPH8WrjQ
 

Fucking lmao. Pussy Sweats has hand, again.
 

Stockhead,

Go somewhere else with that bullshit. The only thing going into a depression is you shortie.
 

Bring on the Fox Business Channel. I want to hear about GDP and job growth, not some BS 10 mil hedge fund that cannot offer redemptions.
 

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Fuck you home buyers and anyone still up on the year in this market, Fuck you too. Good night.
 

Ben Stein Comments on the Sell-Off
 

Good article by Stein. Thanks cheese.
 

A, what's your take on CME?
 

Seems like you went from rampaging bullish to full-on armageddon in less than a month. That was good timing.
 

I would like to ask if this is all part of a larger plan by the government to ruin the dollar in order to create panic in the street. Then people will beg the government to do something. Gov. solution -- Introduce the Amero, and the North American Union.

See the new currency....

http://www.halturnershow.com/
 

I don't want to insult anyone here and I don't want to imply that some of you don't read much besides what makes pussy hotter and you harder - ignorance generally insults intelligence - why most of you should be kind to your fellow posters -

The following is written by Ken Fisher about bear markets:


1. There has never been a bubble widely called a bubble before it burst

2. Most bear markets last about 18 months

3. One-third of declines in a bear market occur in the first two-thirds of it. That means the steepest falls come in the last part. This is important because, as Fisher notes, most bull markets roll over rather than end sharply

4. Bear markets often end in V or W bottoms

5. Bear markets decline between 1.25 per cent to 3 per cent (or around 2 per cent on average) per month. So declines bigger than that could indicate it is a bull market correction

6. A correction defies the 2 per cent rule and is characterized by a 10 to 20 per cent short, sharp drop, which comes from nowhere and is supported by a ‘fantastic bearish story.’

7. If you’re bearing more than 3 to 4 times in two decades you’re overdoing it!

8. A fellow Forbes columnist Joe Goodman said investors should wait 3 months after you suspect a bull market peak has happened before selling

end of quote.

everything happens later than you think

This credit/cash/real estate/mortgage dilemma

is no surprise - it's about lairs, containment and deceiption - and was discussed more than 6 months ago - don't ever forget that the average IQ on wall st. is about 98
it's the momentum of greed that runs the show.

Notwithstanding Florida, more than half the voting public put Bush in the White House TWICE. If you are losing money - you got what you deserve. Markets don't lie - it's people who are manipulating the markets who fuck them up

On The Road - "living without design!"

Funny how Sam Zell cashed in at the top - Sam is 66 years old
we went to High school together in Highland Park, Illinois.

You'll remember he related that the whole credit thing was no longer making sense - that was several months ago..........
 

what a bunch of little girls. i know, i know, you guys..."i've been in this game since '87...'91...'95..or whatever. big fucking deal. get off the play yard & change your diapers. wood is right, there is more opportunity right now than there has been in the last 3 years. there will be winners, wipe your noses & look around.


buy now: cit aig ge ace trv nfs. they will all benefit from this financial fallout.

a depression, what a joke.

richard
 

Let's take the "new" out of news:

In the second half of 2006, Mr. Kornfeld at Moody's noticed a troubling trend. In an unusually large number of subprime loans, borrowers weren't making even their first payments. The market's great strength "could not continue," Mr. Kornfeld recalls thinking at the time. He called staff meetings to discuss his concern, and in November Moody's said publicly it saw signs of deterioration.
 

My last post for the day - I promise:

97% of my portfolio is in cash at the beginning and end of the day.

In the last 30 days I am up 2% in total value.

As for a previous comment - 99.5%
of day traders go broke - is that a proven statistic or one that was created in the poster's mind.
 

If you ask me, Ben B has some balls, and I like it. About time we had a Fed Chief with the guts to let morons pay the consequences for their ridiculous actions instead of Greenspan, who would inject at the drop of a hat (money supply up up up!). Helicopter Ben isn't so Helicopter-ish now!
 

How many redemptions will this cause today? impending doom ahead..

Deere reported that third quarter earnings rose by 23%
 

VMware IPO's with a 20Bil marketcap on Tuesday.

Liquidity Crunch dead ahead!!
Impending doom...
 

I smell a reversal today .. maybe I'm smoking something ... but I smell something .. could be reefer
 

You win Steve-o, fucker. I have mud on my face.
 

Thanks crude.
 

Where is the mother fking golden bull?
 

Fly, there is no AAA paper at 60. As this post points out, the S&P and Moody's went Blodgett on us. You were around to the dotcom bubble, did you accept Buy rating at face value and act upon them? Everyone knew junk was getting cut up and repackaged, and they thought these ratings were legit? Screw'em, a fool(with his PHD, CFA, MBA) and his (client's?) money is soon parted.
Cramer's a clown, but you are correct. The Fed will act shortly. I expect they are looking to let all the low hanging fruit on the hedge fund tree fall off first. That is the right course.
 

TMA is up 55% today.
Manipulation?? What manipulation??
We're all doomed... Remember??

Cheesefries, Eddie Lampert, and Warren Buffett are all buying financials today. See you at 15k.
 

Those soup line fuckers are really creeping me out.
 

If my wife would let me open a Soup Nazi franchise they would be standing in my line to be insulted and have rolls thrown at them. Plus I would accept food stamps.
 

Hey Pussy Sweats, despite this fucktarded great depression post, your covering of your shorts yesterday was yet another score for your calculator brain.
 

fly - what are "your people" telling you about dean, UNG and the USO?
 

I wish people still dressed like those guys in that picture.
 

That picture was before color was invented in the world. Everything was black and white.

What a depressing thread.