Saturday, August 25, 2007
I'm a Boomer and I'm Here to Blow Up Your P/E
Follow this Xer's, try to keep up.
I have included a pretty picture since many of you have trouble with words.
I know you worship The Fly, but his long term view is toward his next bowl of oatmeal.
There is a whole generation that will be change from expecting growth from their equities to expecting income.
I have included a pretty picture since many of you have trouble with words.
I know you worship The Fly, but his long term view is toward his next bowl of oatmeal.
There is a whole generation that will be change from expecting growth from their equities to expecting income.
- 10,000 Boomers a day are turning sixty.
Here's the deal: in twenty years since 1986-2006, less than half the increase in value of equities came from EPS growth for the S&P 500. The rest came from increased P/E and dividend reinvestment.
Companies current prefer stock buyback over paying dividends. Of the S&P 500, about 30% pay dividends.
Boomers are going to stop reinvesting our dividends, we're going to change from "growth" equities to "income" instruments. Growth investors will have to get used to single digit gains. Equities that pay a dividend will do better than the overall market.
UPDATE: More than one haven't added anything to the conversation other that: "Yeah, whut Bill says."
Bill based his whole post on a "Boomer Bust." It isn't going to "bust." Boomers sped up the market, Boomers will slow it down. Read the original post.
If the rest of you have an original thought, carry on.
I'm going to go lie down.
Comments:
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Going Like Sixty- I'm willing to give you the benefit of doubt that you do not remember this, since you are old. Bill Rempell, in a previous comments section, laid waste to your argument about a boomer induced equity crash. Yet, you insist upon furthering this argument without addressing the salient points made by Bill.
What gives? Can you respond to the data presented by Bill? Or will you continue like an ostrich with his head in the sand?
What gives? Can you respond to the data presented by Bill? Or will you continue like an ostrich with his head in the sand?
If the average boomer only has $44,000 in savings/investments then he doesn't have enough money to generate any meaningful income. His shifting from growth to income isn't going to help him with retirement. He only has two choices: Keep working and stick with growth over income to hopefully grow/save enough to live on or inherit a ton or money from mom/dad, if possible. This idea that in 2010 everything is going to meltdown is really over-hyped.
60...you are going to live until age 100 (you might want to lock up that domain as well) at any rate 40 years of compounding aint to shabby. I believe retirement to be a bullshit concept.
I'm feeling pretty good about business and the markets. My cup is half full after reading this article by W.Ross, who I think is one of the smartest guys in the room.
Wilbur
I'm feeling pretty good about business and the markets. My cup is half full after reading this article by W.Ross, who I think is one of the smartest guys in the room.
Wilbur
So when Boomers roll out of equities do they take that money and put it in a cookie jar and never spend it? Does it just disappear? I would say they buy goods and services with it and you are off your rocker, i mean rocking chair.
Consumer, cyclical- You need to stay in a hotel on your travels, right?
Consumer, non-cyclical- You have to buy Depends, Centrum Silver and Fixodent right? Oh yeah, and health care is obvious.
Energy- You need to fill up your beige Lincoln and heat your house right?
Finacial- You still need to bank somewhere, unless you really are using the cookie jar. Maybe a small loan for your vacation home?
Technology- You still need to buy computers so you can blog about how old you are right? Plus you have to use your cell phone to call and ask about your grandkids.
Transporation- You have to book an airline ticket to travel and see your grandkids right?
Utilites- You still need water to drink with your pills and vitamins. Oh, and you need lights and a/c for your home right?
Industrial- Industrial will just supply the demand for all the other fun things you will consume as you get older.
Boomers are living longer and living it up as they get older. No more sitting on the porch with a fly swatter. They will be pumping money back into this economy, for that I salute you old man.
Consumer, cyclical- You need to stay in a hotel on your travels, right?
Consumer, non-cyclical- You have to buy Depends, Centrum Silver and Fixodent right? Oh yeah, and health care is obvious.
Energy- You need to fill up your beige Lincoln and heat your house right?
Finacial- You still need to bank somewhere, unless you really are using the cookie jar. Maybe a small loan for your vacation home?
Technology- You still need to buy computers so you can blog about how old you are right? Plus you have to use your cell phone to call and ask about your grandkids.
Transporation- You have to book an airline ticket to travel and see your grandkids right?
Utilites- You still need water to drink with your pills and vitamins. Oh, and you need lights and a/c for your home right?
Industrial- Industrial will just supply the demand for all the other fun things you will consume as you get older.
Boomers are living longer and living it up as they get older. No more sitting on the porch with a fly swatter. They will be pumping money back into this economy, for that I salute you old man.
@CrudeBroker: Read the post dude.
It says Boomers will be spending on luxury or health care. Nothing in between.
OMG, if you think the majority of retired Boomers will have vacation homes, and vacations "fun things?" Now you're starting to piss me off.
You are living in some vacuum!
I'm here to tell you the vacation home and vacations and other non-essential spending will disappear.
Computers, technology spending? FOCL.
You will be paying for my health care through much higher taxes, thank you very much.
I'll be living in my kid's garage and spending the day on the street corner with a sign: "Will Blog For Food."
It says Boomers will be spending on luxury or health care. Nothing in between.
OMG, if you think the majority of retired Boomers will have vacation homes, and vacations "fun things?" Now you're starting to piss me off.
You are living in some vacuum!
I'm here to tell you the vacation home and vacations and other non-essential spending will disappear.
Computers, technology spending? FOCL.
You will be paying for my health care through much higher taxes, thank you very much.
I'll be living in my kid's garage and spending the day on the street corner with a sign: "Will Blog For Food."
there will ALWAYS be plenty of growth stocks to go around .. that is absurd that you think because of a bunch of american boomers retiring that growth investing will be put to pasture as well .. Old dude - if you hadn't noticed, the rest of the world is on a parabolic growth tear & that is the only reason this mature, maturest economy on the planet, hasn't gone into recession and may not despite the current housing bubble poppage. Innovation will always be with the human race which means growth investing & growth stocks will always be there. Particularly at this stage of the global economic expansion.
Seriously, doesn't the whole concept of the world revolving around your narcissistic generation belie your whole argument?
You're overspenders and you've inherited a lot of wealth, not to mention produced it as well. Demographics are not reduced with age, and if anything, you fekkers will be spending more money in the global markets which will only spur further investment (and maybe bubbles).
My only concern is your Socialist Security and Mediscare liabilities may bankrupt the treasury and crowd out private investment. The typical gummint answer to that (at least short) is "inflate the debt away."
That's why I've got PM's in the LT port.
You're overspenders and you've inherited a lot of wealth, not to mention produced it as well. Demographics are not reduced with age, and if anything, you fekkers will be spending more money in the global markets which will only spur further investment (and maybe bubbles).
My only concern is your Socialist Security and Mediscare liabilities may bankrupt the treasury and crowd out private investment. The typical gummint answer to that (at least short) is "inflate the debt away."
That's why I've got PM's in the LT port.
http://www.drunkenstepfather.com/index.php/2007/08/24/i-am-ted-nugent-is-a-fucking-nut-of-the-day/
unrelated .. another take on Turd Nugget
btw : how does one make a nice link so you don't have to copy paste like some of you do?
unrelated .. another take on Turd Nugget
btw : how does one make a nice link so you don't have to copy paste like some of you do?
I mean, you would think that no other generation had poor old fekkers with not a lot of savings.
Hello? Anyone remember why they instituted socialist security in the first place?
Because old fekkers were gumming apple cores, that's why!
Hello? Anyone remember why they instituted socialist security in the first place?
Because old fekkers were gumming apple cores, that's why!
Brucie, I've put the link to learn how to link in the comments a number of times...
Pay attention!
And here's your goofy Ted Nugent
Pay attention!
And here's your goofy Ted Nugent
Go eat more prunes GoneLikeShitty. This just validates the theory of kicking old men down stairs is best for them and everyone else.
Jog on.
Jog on.
Guys please keep in mind that this was the generation that thought it was "cool" to live in a van down by the river and smoke pot all day. They are truly some fucked up cats. There is no need to worry at all.
Example #1 - What the fuck are you saying they are going to buy luxury goods for if they only saved on average 44k? Like I said before 1 small bracelet from Van Cleef or Harry Winston so you can fuck your old wife or better yet a hot hooker will wipe out your entire savings. Luxury on 44k? Maybe a double wide.
Example #2 - You have all of this 44k that your going to need to spend on shit like living expenses which will be pumped back into the economy via Nursing homes and retirement communities. Did you know that Nursing homes spend a shitload of money on food, diapers, cleaning supplies, bedding, energy, medical products, games to keep you codgers busy and many other items you need to live. That gets pumped into the economy thus expanding growth.
Point #3 - Typically old people give money to their kids since they don't know what else to do with it. Those kids are smarter than you senile fucks and will invest it into the market or go blow it on Crox, Dildo's, Heelys or other gay shit thus continuing the expansion.
Point #4 - Hello, Boomers have kids that are just now getting into the working market. These kids will make money and pump it into the market thus furthering income and market growth. For every boomer there is 1.5 kids being shit out of their wives. This will make for one hell of a market when they fund their 401k's or blow it on useless shit.
Point #5 - Worrying is for aids patients or mine field cleaners. I could give a fuck and will continue to work and put money to work in the market. For instance I am loving this housing implosion, it will give me a chance to get into real estate investing and buy a house cheap. I welcome the worry and will bid for it while you put your 44k into a mason jar and bury it in your back yard, hey atleast you won't have to worry about permafrost with the "global warming" turning your backyard into a desert.
Example #1 - What the fuck are you saying they are going to buy luxury goods for if they only saved on average 44k? Like I said before 1 small bracelet from Van Cleef or Harry Winston so you can fuck your old wife or better yet a hot hooker will wipe out your entire savings. Luxury on 44k? Maybe a double wide.
Example #2 - You have all of this 44k that your going to need to spend on shit like living expenses which will be pumped back into the economy via Nursing homes and retirement communities. Did you know that Nursing homes spend a shitload of money on food, diapers, cleaning supplies, bedding, energy, medical products, games to keep you codgers busy and many other items you need to live. That gets pumped into the economy thus expanding growth.
Point #3 - Typically old people give money to their kids since they don't know what else to do with it. Those kids are smarter than you senile fucks and will invest it into the market or go blow it on Crox, Dildo's, Heelys or other gay shit thus continuing the expansion.
Point #4 - Hello, Boomers have kids that are just now getting into the working market. These kids will make money and pump it into the market thus furthering income and market growth. For every boomer there is 1.5 kids being shit out of their wives. This will make for one hell of a market when they fund their 401k's or blow it on useless shit.
Point #5 - Worrying is for aids patients or mine field cleaners. I could give a fuck and will continue to work and put money to work in the market. For instance I am loving this housing implosion, it will give me a chance to get into real estate investing and buy a house cheap. I welcome the worry and will bid for it while you put your 44k into a mason jar and bury it in your back yard, hey atleast you won't have to worry about permafrost with the "global warming" turning your backyard into a desert.
# posted by 
: 1:16 PM
: 1:16 PM
Jakegint, It is better to copy paste, I just put it on another screen. When I click on your links it blows up the message box, I don't like that. Good idea though.
Goinglikesixty, I hate to wake you up from your nap but let me ask you this, Bruce made a good point about innovation. What would happen to HOVR (I made that company up) if it was trading at $8 and they started producing hoverboards? Would the stock just not grow because boomers are putting pressure on the markets?
And what about trends? Company DTIE (I made that up too) trades at $12 and double ties and inside out pockets started becoming fashionable, would it just not increase in value either?
Read my fax! You're fired!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OopNeC9BGtg
Goinglikesixty, I hate to wake you up from your nap but let me ask you this, Bruce made a good point about innovation. What would happen to HOVR (I made that company up) if it was trading at $8 and they started producing hoverboards? Would the stock just not grow because boomers are putting pressure on the markets?
And what about trends? Company DTIE (I made that up too) trades at $12 and double ties and inside out pockets started becoming fashionable, would it just not increase in value either?
Read my fax! You're fired!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OopNeC9BGtg
the 'landed class' experiment is failing, they trying to prop it up, anarchy around the corner. 3 buck gas is saving the charade. looks different with 8 dollar gas and 60's fatsos that can't walk
60: your job is to inform and entertain. I give you an A on the entertain part.
Clearly, there have been at least 10 "original thoughts" applied to your posts (none from me, admittedly, yet). However, you have yet to respond to any of them. What's the point of adding any "original thoughts" to your theory if they are left to languish without response or consideration?
I am pressing you on this because I am interested in the topic, but have no time (yet) today to do any real research. You are my only hope for enlightenment, 60.
Clearly, there have been at least 10 "original thoughts" applied to your posts (none from me, admittedly, yet). However, you have yet to respond to any of them. What's the point of adding any "original thoughts" to your theory if they are left to languish without response or consideration?
I am pressing you on this because I am interested in the topic, but have no time (yet) today to do any real research. You are my only hope for enlightenment, 60.
@woodshedder: go away. You retired remember? You whined about having weekends off and yet here you are.
The baby boomers represent the worst generation in American history, ever.
I'm certain, once they start to retire, they will spend their life savings, rather quickly, on hemp and Beatles records/concerts.
Plus, where do you dumb fucks think the money is going?
Do you believe the money will dissipate into thin air?
No.
Follow the money (old age homes) and you will find the next big growth engine.
This whole argument that the market will crash, due to old fuckers, is fucktarded at best, irresponsible to boot.
May the elections begin.
I'm certain, once they start to retire, they will spend their life savings, rather quickly, on hemp and Beatles records/concerts.
Plus, where do you dumb fucks think the money is going?
Do you believe the money will dissipate into thin air?
No.
Follow the money (old age homes) and you will find the next big growth engine.
This whole argument that the market will crash, due to old fuckers, is fucktarded at best, irresponsible to boot.
May the elections begin.
Greg -- WTF are you talking about?
I thought all the Marxists had died out or hermitted themselves out of embarassment.
Shit, things are so bad for you witless fecks that Robert Reich was forced to double for Mini-me in the last Austin Powers flick...
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I thought all the Marxists had died out or hermitted themselves out of embarassment.
Shit, things are so bad for you witless fecks that Robert Reich was forced to double for Mini-me in the last Austin Powers flick...
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