Friday, August 24, 2007
I'm A Boomer and I'm Here to Destroy Your Market
Fly will be on special assignment in China for the FDA: too much lead in his ass and not enough lead in his pencil. Or he may be here.
But if you know The Fly, you know he will be nosing around.
But you have bigger worries.
Me and a 79 billion other baby boomers are going to start liquidating our investments starting in about five years. I'm GoingLikeSixty and I'm here to give you fair warning.
We have $16,000,000,000,000 invested, less few trillion based on what the stock market this past week.
“The demographic trends of the past have just not been strong enough to offset all the other influences on the stock market. But this is the granddaddy of all demographic shifts. We have never witnessed anything like this, and I am convinced it is going to be a determinant of asset prices going forward” says Jeremy Siegel, the Wharton finance professor and author of the book "Stocks for the Long Run."
Siegel says we're going to slim down your Dow Jones like Star Jones. The result is going to be just as ugly. You are going to choke on your cash with no where to put it as we band of boomers tighten on your choices like a gastric band.
The average boomer savings is $44,000.
We're going to be living high on that pile of cash we have accumulated after working for 40 years.
"Yeah, but..." is rolling around in your noggin right now. "Boomers have to spend that money somewhere. I want to be where they are spending it."
Here's where to look: Health care or luxury items. There will be no more middle class boomers. Boomers who have the money will spend it on luxury items, the rest of us poor schlubs will be hanging around the local community health clinic waiting for our shingles shot.
I'm GoingLikeSixty, and I'll be here all weekend. Don't forget to tip your servers.
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Think about the distribution of wealth in this country.
The vast majority of invested and invest-able assets are controlled by a tiny percentage of the population – and those folks will keep their money hard at work long past their “retirement age,” possibly through trusts and foundations, possibly just growing it aggressively so that they can die with more toys.
There are the non-fabulously-wealthy in the boomer demographic, who may switch their asset allocation. Or they may not. Many of these “pedestrian wealthy” got that way, not from stock market investing, but from owning transmission shops, rental real estate portfolios, insurance agencies, and convenience stores. Even those with stock market holdings don’t comprise a huge portion of the everyday investment flows, and as Henry points out, the up-and-coming from the BRICs will be more than happy to buy some U.S.-market growth assets from them.
So what about the rest of the boomers, the remaining 80%+ of them? Those boomers who are pitifully unprepared for retirement, of whom more than 25% have saved nothing, and 43% of whom will re-enter the workforce almost as soon as they leave it?
Can you say, “Welcome to Wal-Mart!”?
Because that is what most of the boomers will be saying in their golden years! For them to have some impact in the market, they would have to have some impact in the market, if you know what I mean. Who really gives a monkey’s tookus about their negligible investing flows? When they move their four- or five-digit IRAs from growth funds into dividend or bond funds, will it move the markets?
I don’t buy it. For the boomer bust to happen, there would have to be some large portion of the current investment flow coming from boomers that were going to start living off of their assets, and I don’t see that. Most of the wealth is in the hands of those already living off of their assets and/or businesses, and most of the boomers will be spending their retirement showing you where the lawn equipment is at the Ace Hardware, or checking your receipt as you leave through the Garden Center. The few that do switch asset allocations will be more than compensated for by the foreign inflows of capital from the maturing emerging markets.
“Boomer bust?” I don’t think so!
http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2006/11/boomer-bust-i-dont-think-so/
The vast majority of invested and invest-able assets are controlled by a tiny percentage of the population – and those folks will keep their money hard at work long past their “retirement age,” possibly through trusts and foundations, possibly just growing it aggressively so that they can die with more toys.
There are the non-fabulously-wealthy in the boomer demographic, who may switch their asset allocation. Or they may not. Many of these “pedestrian wealthy” got that way, not from stock market investing, but from owning transmission shops, rental real estate portfolios, insurance agencies, and convenience stores. Even those with stock market holdings don’t comprise a huge portion of the everyday investment flows, and as Henry points out, the up-and-coming from the BRICs will be more than happy to buy some U.S.-market growth assets from them.
So what about the rest of the boomers, the remaining 80%+ of them? Those boomers who are pitifully unprepared for retirement, of whom more than 25% have saved nothing, and 43% of whom will re-enter the workforce almost as soon as they leave it?
Can you say, “Welcome to Wal-Mart!”?
Because that is what most of the boomers will be saying in their golden years! For them to have some impact in the market, they would have to have some impact in the market, if you know what I mean. Who really gives a monkey’s tookus about their negligible investing flows? When they move their four- or five-digit IRAs from growth funds into dividend or bond funds, will it move the markets?
I don’t buy it. For the boomer bust to happen, there would have to be some large portion of the current investment flow coming from boomers that were going to start living off of their assets, and I don’t see that. Most of the wealth is in the hands of those already living off of their assets and/or businesses, and most of the boomers will be spending their retirement showing you where the lawn equipment is at the Ace Hardware, or checking your receipt as you leave through the Garden Center. The few that do switch asset allocations will be more than compensated for by the foreign inflows of capital from the maturing emerging markets.
“Boomer bust?” I don’t think so!
http://www.billakanodoodahs.com/2006/11/boomer-bust-i-dont-think-so/
I think you're automatically fired for posting intraday on a weekday. I'm pretty sure that's the first rule of weekend blogging here.
The axe will fall...
-DT
The axe will fall...
-DT
Wow-
Mr. Sixty:
This post is highly illegal. I demand it be removed, within 5 minutes, else you are fired.
Counting....
Mr. Sixty:
This post is highly illegal. I demand it be removed, within 5 minutes, else you are fired.
Counting....
he's right.
not only are you fired, we push you down stairs, piss on your wrinkly back, send an inflated health care bill to your widow for the "shingles" you caught at woodstock, and put your dead carcass in fly's time machine to the year 2077 so you can buy one cup starbucks with your 44k life savings.
jog on, indeed
not only are you fired, we push you down stairs, piss on your wrinkly back, send an inflated health care bill to your widow for the "shingles" you caught at woodstock, and put your dead carcass in fly's time machine to the year 2077 so you can buy one cup starbucks with your 44k life savings.
jog on, indeed
Fuck you old man, do you shit yourself sometimes without knowing it? Little dribble here and there? Oops.
Boomer,
You forget that we, young kids, bank coin, and will replace your old $1 bills with crisp, newly minted, $100 bills!
You forget that we, young kids, bank coin, and will replace your old $1 bills with crisp, newly minted, $100 bills!
Re: the intraday post, If Sergie and Brin and a publishing system that knows what time it is, it never would have happened.
Fly is right: this Blogger site sucks hind tit.
Wordpress!
Fly is right: this Blogger site sucks hind tit.
Wordpress!
Going-- tell all these pimps to fuck off. Looking forward to a great weekend.
Can't see "The FlY" firing you... not now. Oh and do you bank coin?
Can't see "The FlY" firing you... not now. Oh and do you bank coin?
TIME WARP
An effect experienced from smoking marijuana, where the user feels "out of synch" in time.
An effect experienced from smoking marijuana, where the user feels "out of synch" in time.
Goinglikesixty, you are in your 60's, I noticed Mr. Mozilo is 68. Do you still fucking tan? Your answer will affect my vote old man.
@crude broker: my basil cell carcinoma is a nice toasty brown. The leprosy is a dark pink. My herpes is in remission.
WTF... I hadn't seen the Maria Frogoramo sit down with Leatherzillo... I could watch it for about eighteen seconds.
Just long enought to check if he had a Silvio accent or not. He did not, for the record.
Had to log off, however, as Matzorellah's General Ursus-like pallor was clashing nauseatingly with salmon shirt of the file clerk busying himself in the background of the "busy newsroom".
(/prop filled soundstage)
Just long enought to check if he had a Silvio accent or not. He did not, for the record.
Had to log off, however, as Matzorellah's General Ursus-like pallor was clashing nauseatingly with salmon shirt of the file clerk busying himself in the background of the "busy newsroom".
(/prop filled soundstage)
For Christ Sakes, I finally get out of rehab and this is all "The Fly" (he deserves to be referred to in the 3rd person after this week) can find for weekend help. Pathetic...
Granted my short VLO and GLF thesis caused some pain but considerably less than VLCM and PWRM.
On that note, I would like to send a giant FUCK YOU to Danny and smack Crude with my sledge hammer for his penny stock pimping.
Fly, when you fire this old decrepit bastard and are looking to fill the next weekend slot, look me up.
Granted my short VLO and GLF thesis caused some pain but considerably less than VLCM and PWRM.
On that note, I would like to send a giant FUCK YOU to Danny and smack Crude with my sledge hammer for his penny stock pimping.
Fly, when you fire this old decrepit bastard and are looking to fill the next weekend slot, look me up.
kidstock- the real "kidstock" is from Fla. Your profile sounds absolutely nothing like the real kidstock. You get an "F."
Goinglike60- welcome to the club.
I'm curious if you have a response for Bill. If you don't have something well-reasoned, then I at least hope you have a funny retort. Or maybe a chart.
If you have none of the above, then you have had your balls busted, well before Friday midnight, which would be a first for a guest blogger.
Looking forward to more.
I have to say though the fact that you bought an ad from Fly makes me already suspicious that there maybe some kind of collusion or nepotism going on here. If you suck, and then do not get fired, it will be scandalous.
I'm curious if you have a response for Bill. If you don't have something well-reasoned, then I at least hope you have a funny retort. Or maybe a chart.
If you have none of the above, then you have had your balls busted, well before Friday midnight, which would be a first for a guest blogger.
Looking forward to more.
I have to say though the fact that you bought an ad from Fly makes me already suspicious that there maybe some kind of collusion or nepotism going on here. If you suck, and then do not get fired, it will be scandalous.
Seriously, all due respect. I like old people.
They tell great stories, and what the freck, that's what it's all about, right? In the end?
However, I have to side w/ Bill on the rebuttal here. That scheiss about the baby boomer vacuum (out of the maarkets) is so hackneyed, I think they were talking about it since the 90's when I got out of school.
Here's the thing:
I'm in the transaction bidness, and guess what? There are about a kazillion lightly soiled to filthy rich boomers who are right now contemplating selling their single most valuable asset -- the company they started on a wing and a prayer in 1968 or 1974 or 1986.
And guess further what? Those farking bidnesses - all private, and all unincorporated by Uncle Sam's bean counting fucknuts in the CBO and all those other bureacratic twitter hatcheries that beancount alleged "wealth" in this country -- are worth about three quarters of a bajillion dollars.
I've got the paper here somewhere.
Further, that three quarters of a bajillion dollars will be liquidated over the next twenty years, while you are working your way from greeter to manager of the jewelry booth at Sam's.
I ask this, then:
Where do you think all that freed up cash is going to go?
Well, shit, Vegas, yeah.
But where else?
They tell great stories, and what the freck, that's what it's all about, right? In the end?
However, I have to side w/ Bill on the rebuttal here. That scheiss about the baby boomer vacuum (out of the maarkets) is so hackneyed, I think they were talking about it since the 90's when I got out of school.
Here's the thing:
I'm in the transaction bidness, and guess what? There are about a kazillion lightly soiled to filthy rich boomers who are right now contemplating selling their single most valuable asset -- the company they started on a wing and a prayer in 1968 or 1974 or 1986.
And guess further what? Those farking bidnesses - all private, and all unincorporated by Uncle Sam's bean counting fucknuts in the CBO and all those other bureacratic twitter hatcheries that beancount alleged "wealth" in this country -- are worth about three quarters of a bajillion dollars.
I've got the paper here somewhere.
Further, that three quarters of a bajillion dollars will be liquidated over the next twenty years, while you are working your way from greeter to manager of the jewelry booth at Sam's.
I ask this, then:
Where do you think all that freed up cash is going to go?
Well, shit, Vegas, yeah.
But where else?
GLS, Bill has torn you a new one. Wood and Mr. Gint have also taken a pound of flesh.
# posted by 
: 11:54 PM
: 11:54 PM
Why don't we get along with the impending market doom, make them all bankrupt, and have them serve us tacos?
I thought I would just ad to the we hate old people rants.
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I thought I would just ad to the we hate old people rants.
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