Wednesday, August 08, 2007
Late Day Thought
Sub-prime lenders are gay.
UPDATED LATE DAY THOUGHT: LAZ-tard shit the shower.
UPDATED LATE DAY THOUGHT: LAZ-tard shit the shower.
Comments:
<< Home
WTF!!! Were there a couple of topless women ringing the closing bell at the NASDAQ or am I delirious?
Have you seen the cover of Business Week Danny?
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_33/b4046601.htm?chan=rss_topStories_ssi_5
Thats why you can't short the shit out of them.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_33/b4046601.htm?chan=rss_topStories_ssi_5
Thats why you can't short the shit out of them.
Don't make me read a whole fucking article. Just tell me why it went up 20% today and why I shouldn't short it, or STFU (respectfully).
P.S. That article didn't answer my question at all. The homies sold most of their loans years ago and banked coin.
Just look at the picture on the cover of business week. Its a pictures of a house with a blood red sky with the caption "Bonfire of the Builders"
They nailed the roof on that homey rally in May/June 2005 & if you ask me, they are nailing the bottom with their latest cover. I bet for most of them, the homeys have seen their lows. it won't be up up & away, so maybe you can short for a couple points.
that be my opinion, needless to say
They nailed the roof on that homey rally in May/June 2005 & if you ask me, they are nailing the bottom with their latest cover. I bet for most of them, the homeys have seen their lows. it won't be up up & away, so maybe you can short for a couple points.
that be my opinion, needless to say
Oh dude...
You have no idea how bad the housing market is going to get... NO IDEA (mr. bernanke). I feel his is going to get much worse. Think about it, the most common type of poor person loan was the 5-yr ARM. Most of these 5-yr ARMs were taken out between the end of 2002-2005, when the poor people caught onto the fact that they could get free money and brag about owning a home to all their friends still renting. Count forward with me from 2002, by adding 5.
Now:
People making payments, maybe squeezed, maybe not.
End of this year:
ARM's adjust up, some people able to swing it, others can hang for a little while, but a lot of people will be utterly fucked to come up with twice the amount of cash every month.
Q1/Q2 '08:
Assuming fed cuts in December, poor people will get all uppity, thinking they can just refi. WFC has already said "Fuck you all, we're raising our prime loans to 8% (check, this is true) - even for the best credit. Poor people won't be able to refi, even if interest rates lower.
Lowering interest rates will help the fixed income market - not the poor fucks who are fucked regardless. Lenders are going to tighten the purse strings for YEARS until they clean up their balance sheets. Lowering interest rates will (hopefully) keep the fire burning so that people can stay employed and continue to pay their mortgages.
Q3/4 2008 - 2009:
Poor people will have already asked for relief and blown through their "two free months" of "mortgage relief" from their lenders (who will be hurting), and will be at the end of their rope of disillusion.
-The banks are gonna get hurt
-The poor people are uber-fucked
-Rich fucks too stupid to bail right now will just batton down the hatches and suck it up.
-Lowering interest rates won't benefit the poor man, as banks won't loan on underwater houses
WHOLE FUCKING COMMUNITIES are sitting vacant, deteriorating, right now. HOV is sitting on a shitload of this.
In conclusion: Poor people are fucked, rich homeowners will weather the storm, and smart people shuffle in and out of real estate without emotional attachments. I would be shuffling out right now.
BTW, Q1-2010 - Skynet comes online, a little late. FUCK.
You have no idea how bad the housing market is going to get... NO IDEA (mr. bernanke). I feel his is going to get much worse. Think about it, the most common type of poor person loan was the 5-yr ARM. Most of these 5-yr ARMs were taken out between the end of 2002-2005, when the poor people caught onto the fact that they could get free money and brag about owning a home to all their friends still renting. Count forward with me from 2002, by adding 5.
Now:
People making payments, maybe squeezed, maybe not.
End of this year:
ARM's adjust up, some people able to swing it, others can hang for a little while, but a lot of people will be utterly fucked to come up with twice the amount of cash every month.
Q1/Q2 '08:
Assuming fed cuts in December, poor people will get all uppity, thinking they can just refi. WFC has already said "Fuck you all, we're raising our prime loans to 8% (check, this is true) - even for the best credit. Poor people won't be able to refi, even if interest rates lower.
Lowering interest rates will help the fixed income market - not the poor fucks who are fucked regardless. Lenders are going to tighten the purse strings for YEARS until they clean up their balance sheets. Lowering interest rates will (hopefully) keep the fire burning so that people can stay employed and continue to pay their mortgages.
Q3/4 2008 - 2009:
Poor people will have already asked for relief and blown through their "two free months" of "mortgage relief" from their lenders (who will be hurting), and will be at the end of their rope of disillusion.
-The banks are gonna get hurt
-The poor people are uber-fucked
-Rich fucks too stupid to bail right now will just batton down the hatches and suck it up.
-Lowering interest rates won't benefit the poor man, as banks won't loan on underwater houses
WHOLE FUCKING COMMUNITIES are sitting vacant, deteriorating, right now. HOV is sitting on a shitload of this.
In conclusion: Poor people are fucked, rich homeowners will weather the storm, and smart people shuffle in and out of real estate without emotional attachments. I would be shuffling out right now.
BTW, Q1-2010 - Skynet comes online, a little late. FUCK.
I hear ya Dan .. as deathly bleak as your analysis is now, the future was glowingly bright when HOV was 73 in July 05. The stock touched near 10 & closed at 14.70 today. Short of bankruptcy, I'd say its mostly priced in. Maybe it retests that low but I think the lows are in for the stocks, not the real estate market itself, and whoever suggested buying a basket of these is on to something. But I would pick away small & patiently.
I just don't see how all of the homies, with huge unsold inventories, are going to be able to turn a profit. IMO, they're going to fire sale their unsold McMansions, effectively bringing in $ while driving home prices lower...
Recent article: (meet me at the bottom)
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070808/homebuilding_sector_snap.html?.v=1
Investors, battered by sharp drops in homebuilder shares throughout 2007, have previously jumped at any sign that the housing downturn may have reached bottom. Earlier this year, anxious investors took an uptick in monthly sales as signs that the worst was over, but that turned out to be a statistical aberration.
On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors lowered its outlook for existing home sales this year by 1 percent. But investors may have latched onto a seemingly positive statement from Toll Brothers.
"We believe significant pent-up demand is building, based on solid demographics, a decent economy and still-strong employment," Chief Executive Robert Toll said in a statement.
But in the same comments, Toll added that the housing market was too volatile to predict at this time, and that things could get worse.
"With the uncertainties roiling the mortgage markets right now, the pace of home sales could slow further until the credit markets settle down," Toll said.
-----------------
So the Robert Toll says "Everything's gonna be OK... pent up demand..." and the market goes up. Hmm. Enron. What?
HA FUCKING HA HA HA! He bases this statement on "solid demographics, a decent economy and still-strong employment". Then he goes on: "Toll added that the housing market was too volatile to predict at this time, and that things could get worse.
"With the uncertainties roiling the mortgage markets right now, the pace of home sales could slow further until the credit markets settle down," Toll said."
Yeah, let the credit markets settle down Bob. Do you even go into work anymore?
Sure, the bad news will calm to an uncomfortable simmer, and the global economy is WAY too fucking strong to care - so markets will rally, but the poor people are still fucked, and those with cash in 24-36 months are going to have an opportunity to make out like bandits.
My expert analysis:
STOCK MARKET: UP
HOUSING MARKET: DOWN
Recent article: (meet me at the bottom)
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070808/homebuilding_sector_snap.html?.v=1
Investors, battered by sharp drops in homebuilder shares throughout 2007, have previously jumped at any sign that the housing downturn may have reached bottom. Earlier this year, anxious investors took an uptick in monthly sales as signs that the worst was over, but that turned out to be a statistical aberration.
On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors lowered its outlook for existing home sales this year by 1 percent. But investors may have latched onto a seemingly positive statement from Toll Brothers.
"We believe significant pent-up demand is building, based on solid demographics, a decent economy and still-strong employment," Chief Executive Robert Toll said in a statement.
But in the same comments, Toll added that the housing market was too volatile to predict at this time, and that things could get worse.
"With the uncertainties roiling the mortgage markets right now, the pace of home sales could slow further until the credit markets settle down," Toll said.
-----------------
So the Robert Toll says "Everything's gonna be OK... pent up demand..." and the market goes up. Hmm. Enron. What?
HA FUCKING HA HA HA! He bases this statement on "solid demographics, a decent economy and still-strong employment". Then he goes on: "Toll added that the housing market was too volatile to predict at this time, and that things could get worse.
"With the uncertainties roiling the mortgage markets right now, the pace of home sales could slow further until the credit markets settle down," Toll said."
Yeah, let the credit markets settle down Bob. Do you even go into work anymore?
Sure, the bad news will calm to an uncomfortable simmer, and the global economy is WAY too fucking strong to care - so markets will rally, but the poor people are still fucked, and those with cash in 24-36 months are going to have an opportunity to make out like bandits.
My expert analysis:
STOCK MARKET: UP
HOUSING MARKET: DOWN
well if Toll is saying everything is gonna be ok, maybe the bottom is not in ... never liked that fucker ... bitch has sold more stock than any insider in history
anyways, good luck with your shorts if you go that way ... I'm gonna look to play the long side over the next few months ... subject to change
anyways, good luck with your shorts if you go that way ... I'm gonna look to play the long side over the next few months ... subject to change
Best of luck to you too bruce. I'm either going to short or do nothing - for now. That SRS looks pretty nice.
If that's what Toll said then he might as well throw darts at a board or check a ouija board. His statement is irresponsible. We know about employment,demographics,etc. He needs to address things like mortgage rates,declining prices, losing options on land banks, etc. You know stuff that directly effects the company not how the stars are aligned. He is a fucktard.
Bruce, my last attempt to save you:
http://videoplayer.thestreet.com/?clipId=1373_10372631&channel=Cramer+On+Demand&cm_ven=&cm_cat=&cm_ite=&puc=yahoo&ts=1186626511700&bt=NS&bp=WIN&bst=FF&biec=true&format=flash&bitrate=300
http://videoplayer.thestreet.com/?clipId=1373_10372631&channel=Cramer+On+Demand&cm_ven=&cm_cat=&cm_ite=&puc=yahoo&ts=1186626511700&bt=NS&bp=WIN&bst=FF&biec=true&format=flash&bitrate=300
thx Dan .. save me from buying builders or from thinking them going under will tank the market?
I still would rather buy the builders than look for shorts in the sector .. I'm too lazy to look to squeeze the last few points out of a 2 years decline. I did get some SRS yesterday, so that vehicle will likely be my why to play further weakness. If you come up with which ones to short, let us know. I am gonna search for which ones I want to buy this weekend. I'll probably get USG as a proxy for the homeys. It looks washed out unless we go into a Japanese style recession & real estate slump. I don't think you think thats possible. Neither does JC.
Post a Comment
I still would rather buy the builders than look for shorts in the sector .. I'm too lazy to look to squeeze the last few points out of a 2 years decline. I did get some SRS yesterday, so that vehicle will likely be my why to play further weakness. If you come up with which ones to short, let us know. I am gonna search for which ones I want to buy this weekend. I'll probably get USG as a proxy for the homeys. It looks washed out unless we go into a Japanese style recession & real estate slump. I don't think you think thats possible. Neither does JC.
<< Home
