Friday, September 14, 2007
Forget the above names. Look at ALU, RCNI, BRCD, EXTR, BBND, JDSU, SVVS, EQIX, MSPD, LLNW, AKAM, NT, BKHM, DVW, FNSR, MTZ, TLAB, AVNX, MRVC, SONS, SCMR (40 cents away from cash), GLBC, LORL, AFOP, INAP, HSTX, LVLT and CNXT.
Most of the above stocks are at/near their 52 week lows or in a serious downtrend. Now, either CSCO, JNPR, FFIV, AVCI (biggest customer is ATT wireless), NETL (biggest customer is Cisco), CAVM, LNOP, ADCT and GGBM are outsmarting everyone else; or they're extremely overvalued.
As you know, "The Fly" has been a long term bull on the sector. Over the past two years, I've had big positions in EQIX, GLBC, LORL and AKAM, but not anymore. Recently, thanks to a tip from a source, I checked my EQIX and gave up on the sector, with the exception of my recent LLNW endeavor.
Many years ago I got my balls shot off, via a multi million dollar ADCT position. As you can imagine, this "fun" happened after the dot com blow up, 2000-2002. Believe it or not, long after the initial blow up of the dot coms, ADCT was still making new highs. Then, after getting all comfy and "prosperous feeling," it shot my balls off. Within a year, the stock had a $2 handle, sending "The Fly" to a mental hospital, where he luckily acquired his "calculator brain" and "time machine" from one of his fellow inmates.
In short, I believe this sector is a leading indicator for the entire technology space. Right now, everyone is busy with the big winners and ignoring possible warning signs, such as this.
Is it pricing pressure or a slowdown in business, due to cut backs from the big boys?
Bottom line: Either FNSR, AKAM and GLBC are tremendous buys down here; or CSCO, JNPR and FFIV are the Mother of all shorts.
That said, do you think that GLW, down a buck today, is in the same boat (I know, they're more levered to the flat panels).
ALU down this much is scary. Plus, lets not forget how big of a company they are. There is bound to be ripple effects.
I'd avoid GLW.
There is something to be said when AKAM is struggling to hold $30.
Perhaps, many of them are in danger of defaulting, due to failure to price paper.
I haven't delved into it too deep. But I will.
Shouldn't machinery cos, like IR or DE, have this same problem? I don't know the details.
yeah , big dichotomy here ... I think JNPR CSCO are definitely shorts or shorts in the making .. wouldn't go long, thats for sure
too many players still, 7 years after the bubble
Bernie Schaeffer's group just recc'd JNPR, fwiw.
My take -- there's been enough time to absorb the overbuilding in this arena*, just like there has been for the storage areas (I have a client in hosting who is just now beginning to see some price strenghtening), but that does not mean all of these dinosaurs (like the fuckwits at Frenchie Alcatel-LazyAmelican Lucent) are going to ever recover to the glory days.
I wouldn't trust ADCT management, iow, but perhaps JNPR is not such a bad call here.
* I exclude the bandwidth providers like AKAM and your Limelight Nightclub Stock from this "recovery" set because I think they've been overvalued for quite some time, and there are "glut" problems that exceed those of storage and networking.
I guess I haven't been on the site long enought to know always whether or not you are kidding.
Please tell me you are kidding.
Get your Yukon Cornelius wool cap and twisty mustache on, fellahs.
GG, GFI, GLD.
WTF? Consumer sentiment is down, so people start carb loading?
Consumer sentiment down, but ultimate self-indulgent boomer toy stock HOG ... up??
CSCO, AKAM, LLNW, and FFIV should do fine.
Pick your networkers wisely
And as for Singer, he's got a few billion under management so I'm surprised he is fucking around with a tiny $250 million market cap company. But that old fucker knows how to make money, so he either sees value there or has a plan to create value.
I honestly don't know what they see in it, but I've made two trades below $7, so I'm going to tag along for the ride.
Ready to toss this wienner, DIVX style.
BTW. Midnight post and comments chain best in a long time. Fox Biz Channel take note.
Dilution as opposed to more commercial paper issuance.
Business appears to be chugging along.
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