Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Quick Alert: The Woodshedder Bottom
As you know, yesterday, our resident chart chomper named Woodshedder, announced to the world, he was "going short." Basically, he felt the market "could not go higher." And, his fucking charts said "down you go, Mr. Market, down you go."
However, as you see with today's moonshot rally, none of the above is true. Honestly, I cannot think of a good reason why the market is up so much; so I'll call it "The Woodshedder Bottom," for lack of a rational explanation (that's what you get for fucking with me in the comments section).
Right now, I'm fucking gung-ho on AEO, MVIS, VMI and HANS.
Within the nasdaq 100, NIHD is the biggest notable laggard.
However, as you see with today's moonshot rally, none of the above is true. Honestly, I cannot think of a good reason why the market is up so much; so I'll call it "The Woodshedder Bottom," for lack of a rational explanation (that's what you get for fucking with me in the comments section).
Right now, I'm fucking gung-ho on AEO, MVIS, VMI and HANS.
Within the nasdaq 100, NIHD is the biggest notable laggard.
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Thanks. My blog could use some traffic, although I'm considering shutting it down due to my craptacular skills.
Actually, I called the bottom last week when the DOW was down about 300 points -- enjoining all to "grow some balls, and go long".
I'm surprised a chart-chomper like Woodshedder didn't notice the inverted head and shoulders pattern in all the major indices.
Yesterday, the DOW moved just below the right shoulder, indicating the pattern was voided, but that was not confirmed by the NASDAQ or S&P.
As long as we stay above S&P 1440, DOW 13k, and NAZ 2500, the charts say we're going to rip to new all time highs (except the Nas, of course).
Yesterday, the DOW moved just below the right shoulder, indicating the pattern was voided, but that was not confirmed by the NASDAQ or S&P.
As long as we stay above S&P 1440, DOW 13k, and NAZ 2500, the charts say we're going to rip to new all time highs (except the Nas, of course).
I noticed them razor.
I just don't think the move will happen with all the uncertainty out there.
I know all the info re: GDP growth, analysts growth predictions, record bear sentiment levels, etc, etc. etc...
I have found myself believing more and more that there will be fewer and fewer buyers until we know for sure what the economic slowdown (if any) will be, and how the consumer will be affected by housing, and how corporate will be affected by the credit crunch.
Undoubtably the FED and ECB will juice the markets with $$$. I just don't believe the markets will continue to make new highs.
There is a good case to be made for bubbles in other asset classes. I just don't think it will be in equities.
However, I've only been trading for four years, so it is entirely likely that I don't know shit, and that I'm completely fucking wrong.
I just don't think the move will happen with all the uncertainty out there.
I know all the info re: GDP growth, analysts growth predictions, record bear sentiment levels, etc, etc. etc...
I have found myself believing more and more that there will be fewer and fewer buyers until we know for sure what the economic slowdown (if any) will be, and how the consumer will be affected by housing, and how corporate will be affected by the credit crunch.
Undoubtably the FED and ECB will juice the markets with $$$. I just don't believe the markets will continue to make new highs.
There is a good case to be made for bubbles in other asset classes. I just don't think it will be in equities.
However, I've only been trading for four years, so it is entirely likely that I don't know shit, and that I'm completely fucking wrong.
Wood - it's obvious you're a good guy and trader.
You may very well be right. I happen to like inverted head and shoulders patterns, especially when they occur with an extreme amount of negative sentiment, which is what we've had since mid-July.
I've done very well listening to these patterns over the years - both in the major markets and individual stocks, so maybe I'm a little biased.
You may very well be right. I happen to like inverted head and shoulders patterns, especially when they occur with an extreme amount of negative sentiment, which is what we've had since mid-July.
I've done very well listening to these patterns over the years - both in the major markets and individual stocks, so maybe I'm a little biased.
Let's just stick to the simplest metric out there to measure the strength of the rally... VOLUME.
If the market is going much higher, why aren't people stepping in and buying this rally with more volume? We keep rallying but on low volume, when we sell off, it's on higher volume. WTF?
Of course, price is most important, so I respect the move the market has made, I'm just a little confused by the lack of volume. It makes me a non-believer.
-DT
If the market is going much higher, why aren't people stepping in and buying this rally with more volume? We keep rallying but on low volume, when we sell off, it's on higher volume. WTF?
Of course, price is most important, so I respect the move the market has made, I'm just a little confused by the lack of volume. It makes me a non-believer.
-DT
FLY:
It must have been a very depressive day for you. Every one else is flying and you are stuck with 2 penny gain on MVIS. The best you picked is AEO but you are getting just 2% based on your purchase price today.
Are you still on the second stage of "Violently Opposing" SWC, when it is up 6%+ today at $9.44+, and looking to go higher, much higher?
What do you have against a stock that fundamentally and technically has so clearly bottomed at $8, and is rapidly rallying up, together with precious metals?
It must have been a very depressive day for you. Every one else is flying and you are stuck with 2 penny gain on MVIS. The best you picked is AEO but you are getting just 2% based on your purchase price today.
Are you still on the second stage of "Violently Opposing" SWC, when it is up 6%+ today at $9.44+, and looking to go higher, much higher?
What do you have against a stock that fundamentally and technically has so clearly bottomed at $8, and is rapidly rallying up, together with precious metals?
DT - Look at where this rally started in early April. There was very little volume at that time, only to see the indices rally for another couple of months.
The rally from the summer 2006 lows started on low volume as well.
Just my take...
The rally from the summer 2006 lows started on low volume as well.
Just my take...
JJ - no one is going to buy SWC. Why? Not because of the stock or the "super cycle," nope, it's because you are a douche. Just thought you should know what everyone thinks about you.
jj - You may or may not be correct about SWC, but it's obvious you're way too emotionally invested in that stock.
As an old man trader used to tell me. That's a formula for disaster...maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of your life.
As an old man trader used to tell me. That's a formula for disaster...maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of your life.
even if the CEO of SWC calls me tomorrow to say they are announcing that they found a trillion dollars in Palladium in one of their mines, I STILL WOULDN'T BUY IT.
reason: JJ is a giant douche
reason: JJ is a giant douche
What's funny is that he's bragging about being up 6% in it today, but this is after watching is walk down some 50% (or whatever I don't care enough to look it up). And at the same time comparing it to a small daily gain for MVIS, which is up huge over the same time.
Great, so you've lost only 44% now. Well, I'm up 35% in MVIS even with a recent purchase at $4.76.
Great, so you've lost only 44% now. Well, I'm up 35% in MVIS even with a recent purchase at $4.76.
JJ:
You must be like 15 years old or have an IQ less than 90.
No one cares about your SWC.
Why?
Because you're a douche.
As for "The Fly"
Hmm, let's see:
AEO +8.5%
FTK +4.9%
LVS +7.5%
VMI +4.2%
AZZ +3.6%
AXR +3%
JCG +3%
SE +3%
UPL +2.7%
LEH +2.6%
HD +2.6%
GME +2.4%
LNN +2%
and a dozen other stocks up between 1-2%.
I'm doing alright. Thanks for your concern, fuckface.
You must be like 15 years old or have an IQ less than 90.
No one cares about your SWC.
Why?
Because you're a douche.
As for "The Fly"
Hmm, let's see:
AEO +8.5%
FTK +4.9%
LVS +7.5%
VMI +4.2%
AZZ +3.6%
AXR +3%
JCG +3%
SE +3%
UPL +2.7%
LEH +2.6%
HD +2.6%
GME +2.4%
LNN +2%
and a dozen other stocks up between 1-2%.
I'm doing alright. Thanks for your concern, fuckface.
jj - your SWC monster move off $8 is anemic dudette. In the same time frame as you conviently pick your $8.00 entry, even though you've been harping on that POS when it was $16.00; You could have parked your money in any index fund aside from some housing fund & done better than SWC's move off $8.00.
If the market turns down, SWC will be staring $8 in the face in a hearbeat so save your "I'm hot shit while SWC is going up" bullshit & wipe your boyfriend cum off your chin, and take a chill pill before you take another slap upside the head.
Peace & happiness
If the market turns down, SWC will be staring $8 in the face in a hearbeat so save your "I'm hot shit while SWC is going up" bullshit & wipe your boyfriend cum off your chin, and take a chill pill before you take another slap upside the head.
Peace & happiness
Doofus--
While I agree with your assertions and it will probably happen oneday, you sound like JJ with your constant repetitive "breaking future news" posts.
While I agree with your assertions and it will probably happen oneday, you sound like JJ with your constant repetitive "breaking future news" posts.
Shedder ... we've all been there ... take a step back. let your interest & enthusiasm for this shit return naturally . it will . if it don't, on to the next thing ... if it do, you'll draw from what you learned
I dont really have anything to post. I just wanted to post anything so I could write "SWC sucks" after whatever it was I wrote.
SWC sucks.
cigs
SWC sucks.
cigs
Thanks guys. Its not so bad. I have only initial positions in my index shorts. In fact, with MVIS up, I may break even for the day.
What pisses me off is when I let fundamental analysis override my technicals. I have become so convinced over the past month about a worsening fundamental situation that I'm having a hard time trading purely on technicals, which is the only way I've ever traded.
Can't switch horses in mid-stream.
Although I see the indexes are coming back to earth while I type.
Hell, I may even finish today with a profit.
What pisses me off is when I let fundamental analysis override my technicals. I have become so convinced over the past month about a worsening fundamental situation that I'm having a hard time trading purely on technicals, which is the only way I've ever traded.
Can't switch horses in mid-stream.
Although I see the indexes are coming back to earth while I type.
Hell, I may even finish today with a profit.
Yeah, with PC's booming (acc to Michael Dell) I would thing MU would at least rally back to the mid-$12 range.
That one was hilarious, B,
Speaking of "B" it looks like BIDU is about to go stratos on us again, Hans Brix.
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Speaking of "B" it looks like BIDU is about to go stratos on us again, Hans Brix.
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