Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Position Update: XFML
Maybe it's Yucaipa buying more?
One thing is certain: "The Fly" is not overly optimistic over this quarters upcoming earnings report, despite being long 100,000 shares.
Basically, I believe the sellers were leaning on this stock, thinking the JP Morgan (.14) and UBS (.16) estimates were too high, compared to the HQ (.07) and CIBC (.06) fuckers. However, what might run them through the ringer is 2008 guidance. Hence, a short covering rally, ahead of earnings.
In short, this is a 2008 play, with emphasis on the Beijing Olympics.
I hope there's a red blooded and American reason for this, like a healthy MILF obsession or something of that order.
I noticed some of you guys were jumping on the China internet stock badwagon. B2B commerce and all that shit including Chinese Ebay. Take a look at CTDC. Look at that, an oil guy giving advice on something they call the "interenet." Hop on and ride the Chinaman's express.
Now that your back, having happily stuffed your face with PRNA Bread,
just wondered if you had your daily glass of milk with what you consumed?
Didn't you, in days bygone, buy a milk stock? Is that still a play?
I remember a couple of months ago the Chinese premier saying something like every child in China should be drinking a half-liter of milk a day.
Growing up, "The Fly's" best friend was Korean, who had an insane Father.
The Father, being a partial owner in Dellwood & Snow Milk, would force his children to drink milk on demand, usually after coming home drunk.
He'd say: 'drink milk now,' and his kids would chug down a quart of milk-- like it was beer, much to little "Fly's" surprise.
Is CIADF on your list of Chinese lottery picks?
Mengniu Dairy (CIADF) is the largest milk producer in China. Did $2.0 B revenues in 2006.
They also produce yogurt and fancy ice cream to feed the appetites of a "biryon prus peepoe".
Anyone know whats up with that?
BA -- Don't be cross, I just wanted to let you know that the term "Panzification" has nothing to do with Erwin Rommel's desert strategies.
A. "The Fly" has connections at Ameritrade.
B. You took a swipe at my lotto tickets this morning.
C. BLDP is a piece of shit.
BLDP may be a POS but with earl headed to $200, its worth a flyer in this spec market
besides that, the chart is a dime or two away from tricking incompetent internet chart buyers in.
BLDP needed someone to come up with a viable onboard fuel-reformer so that fuel cell automobiles were not handicapped by the need for onboard hydrogen storage and the creation of a hydrogen fueling infrastructure.
For a while in the late 1990s, there were a lot of optimistic reformer developers. But it turned out that producing a very cheap, very compact, very responsive chemical process plant was beyond current technical abilities. That wiped out most of BLDP's fundamental value.
As for its speculative value, I believe that it has been exhausted by 5-6 years of speculative surges that went nowhere. There are no longer enough BLDP virgins to bring into the stock, and there are plenty of BLDP veterans ready to sell short if there is a spike. A stock in a similar situation is QTWW, which produces onboard hydrogen storage and fuel-handling equipment (and has some of the most incompetent managment around).
I have a fondness for BLDP, because buying and selling BLDP added a zero to one of my retirement accounts back in the 1997-2000 period. Now, however, I don't even consider buying it. More relevant to your buying reason, I don't even monitor it for short selling opportunities, because I don't expect it to see any big moves.
At best, it might see some upward motion in late 2008 if there is speculation that the Democrats will do well in the national elections and push money into low-carbon technology. I would sell any such move, because mainstream environmental groups are much less enamored of hydrogen energy than they once were.
BLDP is a shitface stock, whose value should increase, in line with its patent portfolio--which of course is valued at $00.00.
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