Wednesday, October 31, 2007

 

Sector Spotlight: Machine Gunning

Wall Street can be a brutal place to make a living, especially during earnings season. To put it plainly, buying or selling stocks, ahead of earnings, is equal to river boat gambling. Furthermore, when one of your favorite companies misses estimates, not only does it hurt monetarily, it jars your very existence.

For me, this earnings season has been the worst of my career. I don't think I've ever had two top ten holdings blow up like this, first NTRI, now BWLD. Thankfully, I had great success, early in the year, else I'd be in a deep hole.

The lesson to be learned: never go all in, or heavily overweight a stock, no matter how much you like it.

Sure, BWLD is a top ten holding, but comprises less than 7% of my holdings. Does that make me not want to punch the beards off of the bitches who are running BWLD into the ground? No.

However, I'll survive this bombing and probably come out on top, eventually.

My plan is to buy here, for now. The stock is down way too much, on a small miss. Plus, the company is entering its best quarter, going into peak football season.

Nonetheless, I will not chase the stock lower. If it looks like support is weakening, I will wait for it to dip again, before adding.

In short, this is a machine gunning to the torso.

All in all, I'll be fine, with nice gains and positions in HANS, MVIS, GME, RIMM, AAPL, VMI, iiG etc.

This hurts, but life goes on.

As for today's trading:

With the Fed meeting on deck, I suspect the market will flat line, until "The Great Bearded One" makes his decision.

For now, I'll make a few offerings to the stock God's, while punching my fucking monitor-- with the set of brass knuckles I have on my hands right now.

Comments:
to all Fly's detractors ; the dude owns up to his fuckups, so fuck off

sure hes an obnoxious arrogant egomaniac when he wins, but thats his schtik, not yours, so fuck off, if you can't take it

that said

nevermind

back to your regularly scheduled rally

but wait till tomorrow .. I am warning you .. I think we will sell off hard, so don't go chasing shit
 
MVIS looking a little perky. Isn't earnings coming out soon?
 
Broker,

How confident are you about HANS ? Estimates are 49 cents vs 35 cents last yr and 39 cents last Quarter. It looks to me like estimates are kind of high.If they miss another machine gunning will be in order.
 
Fly,

Since you're buying for March... why not put your additional BWLD dough into the March 20's trading at 11.10 or so?

If no, a query: is this due to a philosophical thing, risk aversion, you don't do options, etc?

_________

And fuck the schadenfreude vultures, man, we got your back.
 
Aside: The snazzy long term 50% fib line is right at $30.05, so you should see it back above that before EOD.
 
Gap filler.
 
Jake:

I'd rather buy stock.

CapGame:

I'm pretty sure HANS can exceeds estimates. The compares are actually quite low, being that they have the new Bud distribution thing going.

They should be able to beat numbers, rather easily.

However, with that being said, I will be selling ahead of earnings.

Fuck this earnings shit.
 
I see EQIX making up for BWLD nicely. Of course i didnt buy that one. F'N company raises 4Q guidance 1M and 2008 by a percent and its up $13.

Give us a pick that makes some money or i'm kicking you in the tennis balls.
 
VMI.

I'll bet both my eyes on it.
 
Crude oil is going bonkers. Just came back from Greensboro,NC and if I was smart I could have flown cheaper plus rented a car or taken a cab to the golf course every day.
 
Since I have been losing money recently, the George Costanza trading system is now in effect viz a vis BWLD and newcomer SWC.
 
Well The Fly just made $10,000 on BWLD. Wonder how much knob made?
 
xfml punching scrotums
 
Even though nobody cares to know, I'll have you know that at 9:45 MT I bought BWLD @ 29.75 and SWC @ 10.96.

This Costanza thing is working so far.
 
8:45 MT, sorry
 
Do you think buying SWC can turn around my misfortunes?
 
I went piker on bwld under 30, something like quadrupled my position, almost even yo
 
Broker--

All I am saying is that it worked for George Costanza, a fictional character in a sitcom that is no longer in existence.

Take that with a grain of salt.
 
Alpha:

Good point and valid reason to own the stock.
 
...However, I am not advocating a "purist" approach to the "Costanza system", viz a vis, going short.

But in a bizarro world, with a bizarro market, therein lies the method to the madness.
 
Broker--

One parting thought:

Even if you do buy SWC, bank "mega coin" and retire ridiculously rich, viz a vis a 40-fold return, you will still have to deal with JJ telling you, "I told you so".

This is a very valid reason for NOT owning the stock.

Happy trading, and jog on.
 
got VMI already. need a NEW one. One of those that goes from like $32 to $60 in a month and half, like HANS.

WXS, eh? Is this a "i need to add something to my protfolio" type of stock, or a true "this one is going up 25% stock?

I'll poke around on it.
 
Cigs -- SLW will see $50 and SA will see $100.

I bet Fly/Gloucester's vile jellies on it.
 
Jake--

Shotgun to the head:

GLD or SLW?
 
The FLY:

No, just buying SWC would not be enough to change your luck. You have already attempted to buy SWC on a Saturday. And I know even if you buy you probably sell it 15 minutes later.

What you need to do, is go to my blog, really spend time reading it. From the very first article, to the very latest. And then spend time checking out the facts I said. Then write up something on your blog discuss the fundamentals of PGM metals.

When you start to look at investment from a fundamental point of view instead of being a speculative day trader, you will stat to make money.

One nice tip for today, buy the misterious No. 52. You could even make more than in SWC. I don't say that easily, you know.

Good luck surviving another earnings slaughter on HANS.
 
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