Fly on WallStreet

Final Ducati post. Stay tuned for "final elections."

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The readership of Sir Fly’s blog has of course mutated over time, new readers appear, and old ones wander off to die somewhere. There have been a couple of comments in the comments section stating that they missed my first weekend stint. No matter, the one stock that defines the love/hate relationship twixt Broker A and some of the stalwarts is without a doubt……..MVIS.

When I claimed MVIS was overvalued, howls of derision. When I claimed MVIS had little or no institutional buying interest, I was accused of sodomising children, I argued the case that corporate action was fraudulent to existing shareholders with the debacle in the Warrants, my wife was ridiculed, when I claimed that MVIS had no patents worth anything, that in point of fact, all that they had were patent applications, a form of internet immortality ensued.

I had an infamous $10 bet with Broker A that is still outstanding while I await the arrival of a lemonade bottle launched I presume into the South Atlantic, to date it has not arrived in the Tasman.

What is the story today?

Well, let’s take a look at MVIS currently. First a very cursory examination of MVIS financial strength

EBIT……………….. [-$29.0]

Total Assets………... $50.42

Net Sales………..….. $7.04

Market Value…….… $222.38

Total Liabilities……. $11.27

Current Assets…….. $44.91

Current Liabilities…. $9.46

Retained Earnings…. [-253.4]

Altman Ratio [-3.89] which predicts a high probability of bankruptcy.

Of course the concept was never really about the numbers, if it was, well more fool you, the story was of course about the potential of this PicoP projector.

Let’s examine the story a little more closely. Without patent protection of the latest technological developments, this project will be doomed by imitative competition, thus, the patents assume a very large component in the quest for profitability.

Second, let’s assume that the patents are secured and that illegal competition will be curbed. Now the problem becomes, what exactly is the market share? At what price can this technology be sold? What about the vast arrays of partnerships, what exactly is their financial interest, how will this impact unit costs and profitability?

There have been numerous studies that detail the longer the development period of a new product or technology, the greater the bias to the upside estimates become, with the invariable disappointment leading to sub-par results.

Even when market demand is accurately forecast, underestimations of the competition can lead to sub-par results. A salutary example is within the air industry. The demand for passenger and freight proved to be underestimated, but the resulting over-capacity of the industry has created poor investment results over thirty years.

The length of time that this development is taking, has become in addition to the shocking financial condition of MVIS, a very real and growing risk to the owners of the business, viz. the shareholders.

In summary, I never liked MVIS, I still don’t like MVIS and I feel that this stock represents a speculation of the most uneducated nature.


To wrap up the weekend, it was however appropriate that MVIS closed out the weekend as it has defined probably more than any other single stock pick the very heart & soul of Broker A’s time in the blogosphere.

Certainly the blogosphere will be a slightly less entertaining place after Monday and the final demise of the “Fly”.

I certainly have enjoyed visiting and observing the unfolding sagas and some of the immortal characters that have populated this particular blog.

The panache and je ne sais quoi will be hard to replicate again, so on behalf of all I wish Broker A bon voyage and adieu.

Jog on

grant