Friday, November 02, 2007
Sector Spotlight: Financials
On my dead cat list is MER, GS, LAZ, BSC, LEH, MS, C and WM. If not today, these fuckers should get some sort of short squeeze going on Monday, after that fucktard Chuck Prince is fired.
Following such a strong jobs number, I am not surprised to see weakness in the sectors that need a rate cut most. However, it doesn't make any sense selling off the retailers and other consumer discretionary names, since they benefit from a strong labor pool.
In short, I see a bounce coming, get ready.
In retail, JCG is my only play. In addition, GES is seriously over sold. And, as you know, VMI is my overall top pick-- down almost 10 bucks in the last two days.
Nice call Cajun, for calling BIDU to $400.
picked up some VMI ... if 2008 #'s hold up, too cheap
will VMI #'s hold up Broker?
I never thought BWLD would hit $29.15 again, wowz0r! Had no choice but buy more to average down.
Bill Miller has it just as I would, Google, Apple, Bidu will all come down. Homebuilders and Financials are where its at if your long.
Bow before him internet leaches, as he is the new Golden Bull!
Your dollar sucks....
Fuck you chuck bennet. Go get herpes.
cleared the 200 dma & the macd crossed, not to mention that its rising jupiter is in mars
Knock yourself out Capital..
We are only part way into the ARM reset bulge.
We haven't hit the bulge of option ARM resets - those will be the ones where the borrowers will owe 110% of the original loan amount on a home worth only 85% of the original purchase price. Making it worse will be the fact that the lenders have already booked as interest income the cash that the borrowers have opted not to pay.
My investment time frame is 12 months down the road not 12 hours or 12 days. Sure these stocks can go lower but 12 months I would bet they are a lot higher than today. Easily 20-30% higher. Infact I bet Countrywide is a double from todays price of $15. They will easily print $30 within 12 months. BK is not on their cards.
Take a look at Goldman Sachs. Was below $160 in August. Evn if you bought at $180 that was the buying opportunity of a lifetime.Less than 3 months later and the stock is up over 25% (if you bought with an avg cost of $180). If you bought in lower, your returns would be 30% or more.
Sometimes you just have to grow balls and take a stand. I bought C yesterday and added more today because I believe the price is ridiculous. I will continue adding as it goes lower.
The worst is priced into many of these stocks. While on paper things could get worse, the market has already priced the worst in the stock price and in the case of CFC and WM, they are being priced for BK.
We could be in the second inning or so.
How do you know what is baked into these prices. Wouldn't you of thought all the bad shit was cooked in C from 57 to 45 to 43 to 39..... These fuckers are leveraged out the yenyang. Wait till they fuck with your divvy.
I mean seriously who would of thought 5 years ago F would be bankrupt. It always gets ugly when when Joe Bag A Donuts see's his Mutal Funds down 15-20%
Thank God for Tech and those savvy Lotto playing Rickshaw MFuckers.
Excluding WM and CFC, that group is down 18-42% from highs reached in early 2007. That sounds like a lot of bad news priced in, but a big chunk of that drop is actually pricing in the realization that the good news priced in in early 2007 was total fantasy.
And you have to remember that, should "the worst" or even something close to that actually hit, stocks get priced as if worse than the worse is coming.
PS It hasn't happened yet.
A bottom must be near...
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