Friday, November 02, 2007

 

Sector Spotlight: Financials

This is getting ridiculous. If the financials don't bounce today, I'll name my next son "Chuck Bennett."

On my dead cat list is MER, GS, LAZ, BSC, LEH, MS, C and WM. If not today, these fuckers should get some sort of short squeeze going on Monday, after that fucktard Chuck Prince is fired.

Following such a strong jobs number, I am not surprised to see weakness in the sectors that need a rate cut most. However, it doesn't make any sense selling off the retailers and other consumer discretionary names, since they benefit from a strong labor pool.

In short, I see a bounce coming, get ready.

In retail, JCG is my only play. In addition, GES is seriously over sold. And, as you know, VMI is my overall top pick-- down almost 10 bucks in the last two days.

Nice call Cajun, for calling BIDU to $400.

Comments:
GES will get a bounce, but my chart chomper tells me it is done after that.
 
Bill Miller says "Fuck you, shorts".
 
What happened to GLF earnings? I thought they looked good.
 
whoever suggested INAP .. I'm in 16.44

picked up some VMI ... if 2008 #'s hold up, too cheap

will VMI #'s hold up Broker?
 
CC transcript...
http://uneducatedinvestor.blogspot.com/2007/11/mvis-cc-transcript-11107.html
 
IMMR saying what fucking credit problems? Fuck the shorts and their doom and gloom bullshit!
 
Thanks for reminding me about VMI, got some :)
I never thought BWLD would hit $29.15 again, wowz0r! Had no choice but buy more to average down.

Bill Miller has it just as I would, Google, Apple, Bidu will all come down. Homebuilders and Financials are where its at if your long.
 
Buy anything thats been up the last 2 days on no news(unless they are a dead cat bounce). If they can be up on this kind of tape imagine what they can do if we rally eg NTES. INAP also continues to look really good going into earnings .
 
mvis needs to get its act together. looking at bwld just hurts.
 
I officially calculated Fly has called reversals bang-on both up and down 86% of the time.......

Bow before him internet leaches, as he is the new Golden Bull!

Canuck

Your dollar sucks....
 
Bought more POT this morning. In at 117.25 (8:25 MT)

---------------------

Fuck you chuck bennet. Go get herpes.
 
Thanks.
 
Bought RIO @ 36.76.

Fuck the bears. Go get herpes with chuck bennet.
 
say what you want about that POS BLDP, but its chart ain't 1/2 bad. Its a trade on technicals alone

cleared the 200 dma & the macd crossed, not to mention that its rising jupiter is in mars
 
Bruce if you weren't plastered you would certainly know it was Gappy who suggested INAP. Cheers- have a good weekend
 
STV has been holding strong in this fucktarded action. Will be a rocket soon.
 
Alpha- I think you got ripped off man.

You need to as Coach Reid's kids help you out.
 
Listen to WdKing: He speaks the truth.
 
The Fly has hired his own crooked Canadian accountant to audit his trades. Great. We'll never hear the end of it now.
 
12 months from now we will be kicking ourselves for not buying financial like C JPM BAC WM CFC MER MS Would not be surprised if this group returns over 40% over the next 12 months.
 
I sold JPM this morning--ugly on a stick. Who would of ever thought C would print 37 c'mon WM 25 Fuck that shit...

Knock yourself out Capital..
 
Some of that group probably will leave you with just 40% of your investment after another 12 months.

We are only part way into the ARM reset bulge.

We haven't hit the bulge of option ARM resets - those will be the ones where the borrowers will owe 110% of the original loan amount on a home worth only 85% of the original purchase price. Making it worse will be the fact that the lenders have already booked as interest income the cash that the borrowers have opted not to pay.
 
mrkcbill,

My investment time frame is 12 months down the road not 12 hours or 12 days. Sure these stocks can go lower but 12 months I would bet they are a lot higher than today. Easily 20-30% higher. Infact I bet Countrywide is a double from todays price of $15. They will easily print $30 within 12 months. BK is not on their cards.

Take a look at Goldman Sachs. Was below $160 in August. Evn if you bought at $180 that was the buying opportunity of a lifetime.Less than 3 months later and the stock is up over 25% (if you bought with an avg cost of $180). If you bought in lower, your returns would be 30% or more.

Sometimes you just have to grow balls and take a stand. I bought C yesterday and added more today because I believe the price is ridiculous. I will continue adding as it goes lower.

Ottnott,

The worst is priced into many of these stocks. While on paper things could get worse, the market has already priced the worst in the stock price and in the case of CFC and WM, they are being priced for BK.
 
I remember the recession of the early '90s. Banks like C traded around $8-9 per share after huge write-downs almost quarterly. Remember Salamon Brothers. Kaput and had to be rescued ( I think by Warren Buffett).
We could be in the second inning or so.
 
Capital--How bout the fuckers that bought C-- 5 years ago @ $44..

How do you know what is baked into these prices. Wouldn't you of thought all the bad shit was cooked in C from 57 to 45 to 43 to 39..... These fuckers are leveraged out the yenyang. Wait till they fuck with your divvy.

I mean seriously who would of thought 5 years ago F would be bankrupt. It always gets ugly when when Joe Bag A Donuts see's his Mutal Funds down 15-20%

Thank God for Tech and those savvy Lotto playing Rickshaw MFuckers.
 
The worst? Not even close.

Excluding WM and CFC, that group is down 18-42% from highs reached in early 2007. That sounds like a lot of bad news priced in, but a big chunk of that drop is actually pricing in the realization that the good news priced in in early 2007 was total fantasy.

And you have to remember that, should "the worst" or even something close to that actually hit, stocks get priced as if worse than the worse is coming.
 
The stock of C will go up when they announce a layoff of 20,000 workers and they have a write-down that would make Bill Gates cry.
PS It hasn't happened yet.
 
If Cajun is getting shout-outs from "the Fly" that is just proof that the market has turned upside down.

A bottom must be near...

-DT
 
...Or china is at a top.
 
Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link



<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?

 Subscribe in a reader

DISCLAIMER: This is a personal web site, reflecting the opinions of its author. It is not a production of my employer, and it is unaffiliated with any FINRA broker/dealer. Statements on this site do not represent the views or policies of anyone other than myself. The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only, and are not investing recommendations. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.