Sunday, November 11, 2007
The first analysis based on ratio analysis left possibly an open question as to the value and likely direction in the medium term……medium term being defined as the next three years. I shall return once again to this baseline analysis when we look at the Gold & Oil markets in relation to the stock market.
Through sector analysis we have identified that the business cycle is most likely positioned within the late expansion, early contraction phase, thus, we would conclude that the stock market contains greater risk than reward at this point, assuming a long directional position.
We move next to
This market is if not already in a mania, close to one, this speculative orgy carries great risk, but of course parabolic moves can make leveraged bets into huge winners, thus the temptation will always be present.
For the more risk averse we shall look at the “timing” of the Chinese phenomenon, as, it will directly relate to the undervaluation that I have in mind.
I'm not saying you've crossed it.
Jog , ...
but get to the punchbowl .. times a'movin
We're just warming up. As you already know I have been bearish on the US market for at least the last 10 months odd.
Also remember, while I may go into greater detail on your blog, the average Fly reader has the attention span of a gnat.
Thus, in respect to Sir Fly, I have kept the duration and complexity to a minimum.
I want to concentrate on the opportunity in possibly slightly greater detail.
Further, I'm trying to not interpose my "opinion" overmuch, just let the numbers speak for themselves.
I shall save the opiniated article to close the weekend, almost where I first showed up
Post the China, credit and Opportunity articles post haste, as you are running out of weekend, then I can close on the grande finale.
Of course, but we don't all have access to the Fish Tank Advisory that provides you with all of your stock picks.
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